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Severe Severe Weather 3/27-3/28 2021

Thanks for this thread I just asked for it in the March thread!


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I wouldn’t compare this weekend to yesterday. But it still could be significant Saturday looks interesting maybe hail risk even. And Sunday that line of storms looks nasty in the heating of the day. Wouldn’t at all be surprised to see damaging winds and isolated tornados.


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SD said:
HRRR is so active on Saturday afternoon along the warm front

View attachment 80628
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Meanwhile
nam3km_ref_frzn_seus_36.png
 
Sleet City USA said:
Meanwhile
nam3km_ref_frzn_seus_36.png
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Yeah it's crazy how empty the NAMs are. Some of the other CAMs split the difference. The convective evolution Saturday will be interesting to watch since we doing get anything from supercells along the warm front to a MCS type feature moving along the 40 corridor to not a whole lot.

Sunday at least seems a little more straight forward big big wind threat along the line rolling east
 
SD said:
Yeah it's crazy how empty the NAMs are. Some of the other CAMs split the difference. The convective evolution Saturday will be interesting to watch since we doing get anything from supercells along the warm front to a MCS type feature moving along the 40 corridor to not a whole lot.

Sunday at least seems a little more straight forward big big wind threat along the line rolling east
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Meanwhile in WRFland
wrf-arw_ref_frzn_seus_42.png
 
SD said:
Not ideal for you! I don't think it's impossible but probably overdone a bit
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Yeah pretty much hoping for a miracle on that front. GFS ain't all that bad but I guess its more of a CAM thing now
 
GSP's thinking
The warm front should lift north of the area by early Sunday,
and there is little indication of any wedge. Guidance is in good
agreement on a cold front crossing the area during the day Sunday,
and could line up well with peak heating. There is definitely
a concern for another round of organized severe tstms with this
front. Bulk shear will be strong thanks to an intense LLJ. Can`t
rule out a quasi-linear and/or supercell storm mode. So in light
of that, the new SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook has the entire FA
in a Slight Risk. Will plan to update the threat mention in the
HWO.
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Sleet City USA said:
I would assume this is in response to the wind threat
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Yessir I’m actually pretty excited to see what the more detailed short range models look like ... like the NAM 3km and long range HRRR ... I believe we could have a mean squall line ... bring on the SHELFIESSSS
 
DadOfJax said:
That's a big negative. Nothing about this weekend looks ANYTHING like what happened yesterday. SMH!
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I’m not talking about the set up the you guys had in AL and GA yesterday... that was a whole other level and you guys deserve a break. I was talking about what ended developing in the Carolinas yesterday afternoon that was very undermodeled until a few hours out... the set up over the Piedmont looks the same.
 
Chazwin said:
I’m not talking about the set up the you guys had in AL and GA yesterday... that was a whole other level and you guys deserve a break. I was talking about what ended developing in the Carolinas yesterday afternoon that was very undermodeled until a few hours out... the set up over the Piedmont looks the same.
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No need to explain yourself you literally said the Carolinas, anybody should know what you mean
 
Chazwin said:
I’m not talking about the set up the you guys had in AL and GA yesterday... that was a whole other level and you guys deserve a break. I was talking about what ended developing in the Carolinas yesterday afternoon that was very undermodeled until a few hours out... the set up over the Piedmont looks the same.
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Yep and it may even be a little more widespread this time.
 
Chazwin said:
I’m not talking about the set up the you guys had in AL and GA yesterday... that was a whole other level and you guys deserve a break. I was talking about what ended developing in the Carolinas yesterday afternoon that was very undermodeled until a few hours out... the set up over the Piedmont looks the same.
Click to expand...

Agh, that makes much more sense. The way it was worded originally made it seem like you were comparing yesterdays event in general to what will happen in the Carolinas Sat/Sun. Thanks for clarifying...no harm, no foul.
 
That Saturday warm front setup could go either way, been trending north on the hrrr, looks like the HRRR initiates storms north of the boundary (elevated) near CLT, once again you can get sick Low level structure with those sort of soundings as there mostly elevated given the stable low levels and LFC-LCL seperation 20B80354-6D42-44CD-93FF-FDFD22AFACD6.png9D3E8FCA-BC66-4092-95DB-4750367B42BE.png
 
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