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Severe weather 2020

I just hope that the next ones aren't going to be early in the morning/late at night if they're going to be tornado threats. Those were some legitimately frightening moments for me around 4:45-5:00 AM earlier this week where that storm with a hook signature was closing in and I wasn't for sure on how close it was (as it turned out it was definitely too close for comfort).

Think the one that might be on Sunday might thankfully turn out to be south/southwest of the area though.
 
Geez.... this looks so similar to the one we had on Sunday
 

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There is just something with severe weather and Sunday this month. Euro looks quite interesting for next Sunday, but of course way way out there and still multiple events occur before we even get there.E6657085-3903-44DD-B789-8817963DB1E5.gif
 
On top of severe weather you got quite a bit of rain falling with each of these systems over areas that are already having some of their rainiest starts to a year so far. My area for example is at just under 31 inches of rain so far this year.

Of course the 00z Euro is just ugly rain wise. 10 inches of rain near Birmingham over the next 10 days and some pretty hefty totals elsewhere.7021462D-FD63-421F-9006-DEE8BCF8FF9F.gif
 
If there’s any better news, it’s that This stuff will likely start shifting towards the plains, it’s possibly why the GFS/GEFS show that ridge around day 12-16, GWO looks to swing towards phase 8/1 around the beginning of May F56666DD-0ED1-4E0C-88D0-EE3C8A6A4F78.pngphase 8/1 are typically supportive of a -PNA/west coast trough and correlate to increased heights East of the Rockies, it’s probably why the GFS/GEFS showed ridging to towards the end of there runs, and the GWO switch happened last May as well, if this switch does indeed happen, it’s time to open up the pools CA68E28B-CB9C-4824-8253-07225A8191D4.jpeg
as you can see around day 16 on the gefs as the GWO begins to head towards phases supportive of ridging, ridging appears East of the Rockies 89CB2ADA-D4F8-4692-8414-0DA60B0F62FA.png
 
With back-to-back storms systems the 2nd half of next week, I almost wonder if there's the possibility they could just merge into one large, multi-day storm event. :(
 
At least 3 more threats of severe weather on the horizon thru the next 10 days in the southern US. I'll have to admit, even though it's over 7 days out, the last one is generally the most concerning to me & would have the most potential to challenge the Easter weekend outbreak especially from a large-scale forcing standpoint. If you see a deep cut-off upper trough over the Ohio & Tennessee Valleys like this in late April... whoever is southeast of that (most of this forum), you're in big trouble.

ecmwf_z500a_us_10.png


gfs_z500a_us_37.png
 
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