Severe weather 2020

[SD]

And boom the southeast ridge has all the room to emerge one that happens, likely gonna see a shift to the plains soon once tropical forcing does switch towards the Indian Ocean/maritime continent

I wonder how long the -nao the models are showing sticks around? Going to cause some issues if we see a more zonal flow across the US and can't real amplify the SE ridge to deflect

 

[tempo47]

Out of all the systems you guys are talking about when is the soonest the southeast can see another round of severe weather?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeeesh this looks mean

 

[accu35]

Its back

 

[tennessee storm]

Yeeesh this looks mean View attachment 39547

Next weeks system means business

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Here’s a sounding from MS from that system, this one has that look, bouta jump the gun and make a thread on it

 

[Shawn]

Here’s a sounding from MS from that system, this one has that look, bouta jump the gun and make a thread on it View attachment 39548

Please wait until the 12z suite.

 

[Webberweather53]

Beyond this time frame, models indicate another shortwave trough
moving across the Southwest and toward the southern Plains around
Tue/D7 or Wed/D8, and this system may eventually hold severe
potential.

 

[Webberweather53]

Would like to see a bit more run-run consistency between various NWP models, but this system at day 5 could get interesting for those south of I-20. This setup looks considerably more marginal than this past weekend.

 

[Arcc]

Yeeesh this looks mean View attachment 39547

Here’s a sounding from MS from that system, this one has that look, bouta jump the gun and make a thread on it View attachment 39548

Ouch. That is bad. That sounding is about textbook for notable southern tornado outbreaks.

 

[tennessee storm]

Here’s a sounding from MS from that system, this one has that look, bouta jump the gun and make a thread on it View attachment 39548

Ouch... what happened to the se ridge fro? Vanished again...

 

[MattLabenzwx]

Here is a sounding for next Tuesday here in Kansas. Really decent though would like to see cape values improve.
Could be multiple days of severe weather from the plains into the east/southeast.

 

[MattLabenzwx]

I also think next Tuesday has some outbreak potential somewhere in the plains. Dynamics, moisture/cape, and wind shear all look good next week.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Jesus not looking good on latest GFS with sub 1000mb storm Eastern Tennessee. Going to see another severe outbreak SOON imo

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Arcc]

Here it comes. The waves of these low amp troughs are nuts.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Here it comes. The waves of these low amp troughs are nuts.

quite a favorable pattern with them undercutting the AK ridge

 

[Glamo]

quite a favorable pattern with them undercutting the AK ridge

Please delete if not allowed, could you explain to me as someone who is just generally lurking here and doesn't yet understand a lot of things about the weather, where this severe weather would be?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Please delete if not allowed, could you explain to me as someone who is just generally lurking here and doesn't yet understand a lot of things about the weather, where this severe weather would be?

Hard to say right now, but the plains into the southeast (Dixie alley) would be favored rn, as we head further into spring things should start shifting into the plains

 

[tennessee storm]

Hard to say right now, but the plains into the southeast (Dixie alley) would be favored rn, as we head further into spring things should start shifting into the plains

Track seems be Dixie alley again... hard believe here midsouth we keep missing the big ones... Memphis area I’m referring to... usually mid April to mid May is our best peak time catch something on the high end.