Severe weather 2020

[BHS1975]

At least 3 more threats of severe weather on the horizon thru the next 10 days in the southern US. I'll have to admit, even though it's over 7 days out, the last one is generally the most concerning to me & would have the most potential to challenge the Easter weekend outbreak especially from a large-scale forcing standpoint. If you see a deep cut-off upper trough over the Ohio & Tennessee Valleys like this in late April... whoever is southeast of that (most of this forum), you're in big trouble.

View attachment 39735


View attachment 39736

Seems a bit too far east.


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[Webberweather53]

Seems a bit too far east.


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Not really looking for or focusing on specifics at this range, the general pattern is giving off big clues that another threat could materialize around day 8-9

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Hmmm

 

[SD]

Hmmm View attachment 39855View attachment 39856View attachment 39857

Cyclonic flow aloft then a -nao then a +pna. May not get huge outbreaks in terms of aerial coverage but each time the trough reloads we gey brief warm sectors somewhere in the region. I also wouldn't be surprised if we end up with one of those 65-70 degree days under an upper low where we get the prolific small hail producers. Active close out of april into early may

 

[Myfrotho704_]

this one needs to be watched, has trended more favorable the past few runs of the GFS, wind profiles already look nasty, that's probably why the CIPS was showing increased severe WX chances for was this system

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This one is grabbing my attention

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Some NW flow MCS threat isn’t out of the realm of possibility if a pattern like this sets up

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Said it yesterday, Ima say it again, this is a solid pattern for MCSs

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Make it stop...

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gefs also shows this.... we may have another one on our hands
If there any good news, it’s that around day 10 models show ridging dominating more

 

[tennessee storm]

Make it stop... View attachment 40244

Why. We haven’t started good in my area yet... surely we can get little more north track finally ... frustrating as a local amateur chaser lol

 

[Myfrotho704_]

It’s that time of the year, we get these weak waves flowing to our north on the northern side of a H5 ridge, and you get decent little setups for severe with moderate thermodynamics, especially damaging winds from multicellular clusters, this is the perfect pattern for that

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gefs shows this well

 

[SD]

Gefs shows this well View attachment 40498

If we can get the trough in the NE to relax in time could be a solid NW flow/mcs look

 

[Myfrotho704_]

If we can get the trough in the NE to relax in time could be a solid NW flow/mcs look

Yeah, the gefs has been backing off with that NE trough a bit to

 

[BufordWX]

Euro hinting at the possibility of a little more severe weather the first week of May.

 

[BufordWX]

April was just a little active severe weather wise.

 

[MattLabenzwx]

Finally looks like the pattern is going to switch around next week and this will provide severe weather chances in the Central US. Still thinking the big threats are around May 20 and beyond especially given -AAM, jet extension and tropical forcing supporting big western troughs around that time period.

 

[MattLabenzwx]

SPC has issued a 15 percent risk for severe weather here in the Central Plains. Honestly gfs and euro both showing multiple days of severe weather potential.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

this Is a little interesting @SD , little weakness in the ridge with nice thermodynamics and modest but ok wind fields, GEFS/EPS show it