Edited to remove unnecessary -
927
FXUS62 KJAX 052126
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
526 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017
...PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION
TORNADO WATCH NORTH AND WEST
OF ALMA THROUGH 8 PM...
...MODERATE TO
HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...
.CURRENTLY...
Increasing
divergence aloft and significant warm air
advection is
fostering the development of widely
scattered thunderstorms over
inland southeast Georgia, with some
isolated activity developing
in a hot and increasingly unstable
air mass over north central
Florida.
.NEAR TERM (This Afternoon through Thursday)...
The potent
trough centered over the upper Mississippi Valley will
continue to dig into the southeastern states and will become
negatively tilted overnight, which will sweep a strong cold
front
through our region during the predawn and early morning hours.
Much of the stronger forcing will remain situated over the FL
panhandle and points just west of the Altamaha/Ocmulgee River
junction through sunset, with the
capping inversion likely keeping
activity developing over coastal northeast FL below severe limits.
Clusters of thunderstorms currently over the Florida panhandle
will continue moving rapidly northeastward and will impact inland
southeast Georgia and perhaps the far western Suwannee Counties
towards or shortly after sunset. The Storm Prediction Center has
placed locations north and west of Alma within a High Risk of
severe thunderstorm development during the evening hours.
Impressive speed
shear and increasing
instability will result in a
significant damaging wind threat, with model soundings depicting
southwesterly winds strengthening to 70-85 knots in the
hail
growth zone by late evening across inland southeast Georgia and
the western Suwannee Valley, which will introduce the threat for
large
hail as the
capping inversion erodes. This type of
environment may also be favorable for strong, long-track tornadoes
tonight in southeast Georgia.