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Severe Severe Threat April 5th-7th

Storm5

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12z euro goes nuts with cape again . This will be one to watch
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As if we haven't seen enough severe weather in the past few weeks, yet another bout of severe wx will be dealt to the southern tier of the US the middle of next week. A s/w currently off the west coast of British Columbia on the leading edge of a 175+ knot jet streak in the north-central Pacific will dive southeastward into the Great Basin later this weekend and into early next week and emerge from the southern Rockies by Wednesday in the midst of a rapidly amplifying pattern over North America. Once again, this will allow for significant southerly return flow from the Gulf of Mexico to destabilize the atmosphere over a considerable portion in the southern US, and as the pacific jet streak noses into the west coast, favorable, divergent and fairly diffluent flow aloft in the left exit region of this jet streak should augment rapid cyclogenesis in the south-central plains, with this area of low pressure racing into the Lakes. A secondary area of low pressure may attempt to form in the lee of the Apps in the vicinity of the Carolinas and Virginia on Thursday, which could have significant implications on the viability and rigor of the severe weather in this region. Definitely another system worth watching from the southern plains to the Carolinas and south-central Mid-Atlantic states.

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And even though CAPE drops off into Georgia Wednesday night/overnight, the values shown by the Euro verbatim are certainly supportive of a continuing threat of severe after dark Wednesday.
 
Two things from the free maps, large upper level broad based trough and SW 850mb winds in a highly unstable warm sector.

This could be a biggie.
 
Brother I know how hard it is for you to get snow down here. I always lurk and feel bad for you when posters get upset that they may only get an inch or two vs you living in the panhandle wishing you could get anything!
 
really first it showed this...euro has none... see what happens... things dont get in the way down there... finally we could be looking at a high end threat

Yeah, we all know how the GFS vs. Euro battle usually plays out. And FWIW, the GFS looks way too fast compared with the ensembles, NAM, UKIE, and Euro. The Canadian is also fast but when it and the GFS are alone in a camp..its awfully tough to trust it
 
I know it's the NAM and LR NAM but holy hell.... beast mode


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Still timing differences with this threat . The gfs is much faster swinging the trough through especially for Mississippi and Alabama ,that would really limit instability values and really make it tough for things to get going . The euro is much slower and really cranks up the instability setting up a very dangerous afternoon . I would lean with the euro at this point given the gfs and it's tendency to eject troughs so freaking fast .


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