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Severe Severe potential April 13th-15th Palm Sunday Weekend

If things stay the same, I expect we'll see a high risk with this one. The SPC day 1 criteria for high risk (45% with sig severe) would be reached if tornadoes were the threat. At this time it looks like that is a distinct possibility.

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Decent rotation just to my west
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Hopefully tomorrow the 6 year drought of a ef5 won't be broken. Parameters are downright nasty. @DustinWx what part of lousiana are you planning to chase?
 
Uh oh, with these storms today LCLs are very low, just likely a wall of rain then the possible tornado, stay safe @SD
 
The storm still has a CC dot. Its still lofting up something. Anybody in its path needs to take shelter. Now the CC is gone. More broader rotation.
 
And here we go with getting severe storms and tornado warnings when we're not even under a watch.
 
Good news storms firing in the gulf the severe weather threat looks done for north Alabama central Alabama according to 3 km nam
 
Brick Tamland said:
And here we go with getting severe storms and tornado warnings when we're not even under a watch.
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This is not uncommon. Getting a few severe-warned storms when there’s no watch is pretty routine.

Anyway, I like the rain every few days during pollen season.
 
Rain Cold said:
This is not uncommon. Getting a few severe-warned storms when there’s no watch is pretty routine.

Anyway, I like the rain every few days during pollen season.
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so long as no one gets hurt ... now to a Friday fish dinner in Lent (I gave up winter as my sacrifice for the year, btw ...)
 
A large tornado watch for only one warning would probably do more harm than good. After looking at the latest data, I still don’t see a large tornado break for NC this weekend. I see more of a gusty wind threat and maybe some flooding in spots. 0-1 tornado for western NC and maybe around 2 for the rest of the state. Won’t know till the morning of to see how many clouds and rain are putting a lid on things.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
@Myfrotho704_ how’s it looking here in the upstate for this one?
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On Sunday afternoon there could be a few isolated strong-severe storms if there’s enough forcing, but around 8pm-2am Monday morning there could be clusters of organized storms/supercells, but there’s is a possibility of a few tornadoes, and that outside chance of a stronger one, right now it’s hard to get the timing down, timing of the front is crucial
 
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