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Pattern September Somnolence

last Sept featured a weirdly cool first half, then a hot second half... Those remnants of Irma passing over me with temps in the mid 50s are hard to forget. Top 10 strange weather events of my life...
 
Is it on tonight's run too? Haven't checked yet.

I didn't really look at the 18z but yeah it looks pretty good

Oddly it doesn't have much in the Atlantic like the other models though it does quickly form a CV storm by the weekend
 
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hmm... nrgjeff, webb, and others predicted this coming to pass and here one global model is picking it up.. I'm beginning to think Asia, MJO and far upstream atmospheric phenomena mean something to North American weather... ;)
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uh the end of the Euro was very interesting... if it's right hurricane season is about to take off next week

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we all talk about analogs for winter storm patterns, etc... but any good analogs for this year's tropical (lack of) season?
 
we all talk about analogs for winter storm patterns, etc... but any good analogs for this year's tropical (lack of) season?

Since 2000 3 seasons have failed to produce a hurricane from mid July to now 2001 2002 and 2013
 
heh, thanks.. interestingly, 2 out of three produced decent winters in the Eastern US. No, I'm not stupid enough to make any kind of reasoned prediction based on this small sample size..
 
heh, thanks.. interestingly, 2 out of three produced decent winters in the Eastern US. No, I'm not stupid enough to make any kind of reasoned prediction based on this small sample size..

Of course more broadly slower Atlantic seasons and El Nino generally go hand and hand
 
blech... hopefully this is Summer's last bout of 90s for the mid-South... you guys in the Deep South, well, move north or something:
gfs_T2m_us_40.png
 
Hopefully, we can get rid of this ridge over New England and southern Canada before these waves over the MDR begin to encroach on the SW Atlantic because this not the kind of steering pattern you want to see during mid September.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_atl_11 (1).png
 
As wet as it has been this summer the drought wasn't completely wiped out and looking ahead, this area could begin to expand (especially if the GFS is anywhere close to correct)
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