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Pattern September Somnolence

setxwx

setxwx

politicians discussing climate change
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Nothing looks very exciting through the first week or September... no chance of any kind of tropical activity in the SE. Southern Plains and Texas look to go 'last hurrah' for heat... everyone else normal, but not BN:
gfs_T2m_us_51.png
 
The JMA, EPS, and CFS are all sniffing out a major regime change in the Atlantic during the 2nd half of September that would favor more tropical cyclone activity, so don't let your guard down just yet. I've noticed that -AMO seasons like this tend to peak later than normal, and this may be because the EP is more active in these years and thus it's harder for the Atlantic to generate storms closer to the East Pacific's climatological peak that comes in late August.


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Webberweather53 said:
The JMA, EPS, and CFS are all sniffing out a major regime change in the Atlantic during the 2nd half of September that would favor more tropical cyclone activity, so don't let your guard down just yet. I've noticed that -AMO seasons like this tend to peak later than normal, and this may be because the EP is more active in these years and thus it's harder for the Atlantic to generate storms closer to the East Pacific's climatological peak that comes in late August.


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There are 9 innings in a game, and 3 batters in the bottom; the 9th month is September and there will be batters in the box ... and another on deck if it goes an extra inning ... Good post Webb; game's nowhere near over in the middle of the 8th ...
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Ahhh yes, seeing snowfall in the north-central Rockies warms my heart because it's a pretty clear indication that summer is fixing to come to an end.
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I'm ready. Hasn't been a bad summer by any means here, but it's hard to get the unction to light the forge in this heat.
 
Thankfully I don't think this ridged pattern has the umph to match 2007 where rdu went 101 and 99 in back to back days but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see rdu record a 94-97 type high during the first 10 days of September. I agree with webber about a backing away from ridging as we move through September and I think we could see that starting as early as 9/10 but more likely 9/15. I have some ideas that we could get into a highly amplified pattern in the 2nd half of the month but it's pure speculation.

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Per my local AFD, the ridge that was supposed to break down and allow a front to stall over the Carolinas for next weekend and bring a wetter pattern, is not looking like it’s going to make it here now and the ridge re strengthens! Looks like we could be in for a long hot dry spell, with maybe a scattered storm Wednesday or Thursday and then another long dry stretch of 90s plus!
#ILOVEFALL
 
Tarheel1 said:
Per my local AFD, the ridge that was supposed to break down and allow a front to stall over the Carolinas for next weekend and bring a wetter pattern, is not looking like it’s going to make it here now and the ridge re strengthens! Looks like we could be in for a long hot dry spell, with maybe a scattered storm Wednesday or Thursday and then another long dry stretch of 90s plus!
#ILOVEFALL
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You forgot your favorite meme.... the :( icon
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ahhh yes, seeing snowfall in the north-central Rockies warms my heart because it's a pretty clear indication that summer is fixing to come to an end.
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so ready...

and yes I also think the wave at 35 W could be an issue down the road, I really think the Atlantic will begin to wake up soon
 
last Sept featured a weirdly cool first half, then a hot second half... Those remnants of Irma passing over me with temps in the mid 50s are hard to forget. Top 10 strange weather events of my life...
 
whamby said:
Is it on tonight's run too? Haven't checked yet.
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I didn't really look at the 18z but yeah it looks pretty good

Oddly it doesn't have much in the Atlantic like the other models though it does quickly form a CV storm by the weekend
 
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hmm... nrgjeff, webb, and others predicted this coming to pass and here one global model is picking it up.. I'm beginning to think Asia, MJO and far upstream atmospheric phenomena mean something to North American weather... ;)
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uh the end of the Euro was very interesting... if it's right hurricane season is about to take off next week

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we all talk about analogs for winter storm patterns, etc... but any good analogs for this year's tropical (lack of) season?
 
whamby said:
we all talk about analogs for winter storm patterns, etc... but any good analogs for this year's tropical (lack of) season?
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Since 2000 3 seasons have failed to produce a hurricane from mid July to now 2001 2002 and 2013
 
heh, thanks.. interestingly, 2 out of three produced decent winters in the Eastern US. No, I'm not stupid enough to make any kind of reasoned prediction based on this small sample size..
 
whamby said:
heh, thanks.. interestingly, 2 out of three produced decent winters in the Eastern US. No, I'm not stupid enough to make any kind of reasoned prediction based on this small sample size..
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Of course more broadly slower Atlantic seasons and El Nino generally go hand and hand
 
blech... hopefully this is Summer's last bout of 90s for the mid-South... you guys in the Deep South, well, move north or something:
gfs_T2m_us_40.png
 
Hopefully, we can get rid of this ridge over New England and southern Canada before these waves over the MDR begin to encroach on the SW Atlantic because this not the kind of steering pattern you want to see during mid September.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_atl_11 (1).png
 
As wet as it has been this summer the drought wasn't completely wiped out and looking ahead, this area could begin to expand (especially if the GFS is anywhere close to correct)
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