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Pattern September Somnolence

As wet as it has been this summer the drought wasn't completely wiped out and looking ahead, this area could begin to expand (especially if the GFS is anywhere close to correct)
20180828_Southeast_text.jpg


gfs_apcpn_seus_52.png
Looks dry, yes, but no one is “setting the woods on fire” so to speak
 
As wet as it has been this summer the drought wasn't completely wiped out and looking ahead, this area could begin to expand (especially if the GFS is anywhere close to correct)
20180828_Southeast_text.jpg


gfs_apcpn_seus_52.png
Looks about right! The subsidence from the tropical entity over the gulf, will be awesome! I told y’all it’s been dry for some! :(
 
At least the aam will bottom out around 9/5 so we may see the ridge peak in intensity next weekend then begin to break down as we move into mid September.

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At least the aam will bottom out around 9/5 so we may see the ridge peak in intensity next weekend then begin to break down as we move into mid September.

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I hope so. If we get to the Sept 15-20 and we're still in relentless 90s, I'm not going to be very thrilled.
 
Maybe we need the 90-95 weather to last into early October like it did in 1986 if you want a nice winter. Most of September and the 1st week of October that year were hot and dry, but then the pattern broke big time and the rest of that fall was cool and wet. The winter of 1986-87 was great, especially the closer to the mountains you were. Not so good from Columbia to Raleigh, but anyone from around Hickory back into the mountains would love it. The NC mountains even had a monster snowstorm in April 1987.
 
Looking at forecasts I've seen for the 1st 2 weeks of Sep for the US as a whole, it looks to be very close to the 30 year mean for hottest two weeks of the year in late July! So, late July is approaching! Get your water or lemonade ready!
 
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Maybe we need the 90-95 weather to last into early October like it did in 1986 if you want a nice winter. Most of September and the 1st week of October that year were hot and dry, but then the pattern broke big time and the rest of that fall was cool and wet. The winter of 1986-87 was great, especially the closer to the mountains you were. Not so good from Columbia to Raleigh, but anyone from around Hickory back into the mountains would love it. The NC mountains even had a monster snowstorm in April 1987.

Definitely wasn't a bad winter in Raleigh, with about 10-13" of snow & sleet on the season, obviously there was a huge drop off between Greensboro and the Triangle... 5-8" of sleet in mid Feb 1987 oof.
February 16-17 1987 NC Snowmap.gif
February 27 1987 NC Snowmap.gif
 
Looking at forecasts I've seen for the 1st 2 weeks of Sep for the US as a whole, it looks to be very close to the 30 year mean for hottest two weeks of the year in late July! So, late July is approaching! Get your water or lemonade ready!
I wonder if that means October will be like August?
 
This ridge over New England and southern Canada would have likely departed later next week, but supertyphoon Jebi is going to help reestablish this ridge in week to and into week 3, so there isn't any legitimate heat relief in sight just yet. Tbh, it's really worrisome to have that feature persist this long in the heart of the hurricane season, it's usually a pattern that favors hurricane landfalls on the US coast. Hopefully we can turn this around before a TC in the MDR takes advantage of it.
 
This ridge over New England and southern Canada would have likely departed later next week, but supertyphoon Jebi is going to help reestablish this ridge in week to and into week 3, so there isn't any legitimate heat relief in sight just yet. Tbh, it's really worrisome to have that feature persist this long in the heart of the hurricane season, it's usually a pattern that favors hurricane landfalls on the US coast. Hopefully we can turn this around before a TC in the MDR takes advantage of it.

Yeah with the active MDR indicated on models there's a good chance we see at least one of the waves becoming a US threat in September. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see this strong ridging last through most of September before finally breaking down as we near October.
 
Looks like a horrible winter elsewhere though.

It was actually one of the best winters of the 1980s in NC overall in terms of combined cold & snow. Much of the piedmont and mountains doubled-tripled their seasonal snowfall averages. It really sucked along/east of I-95 except in the southern coastal plain towards Fayetteville & Lumberton where their snowfall averages are pretty low.
 
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