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September Sizzling Summer Segway

GaWx said:
The Sep "sizzle" will be returning for the very last few days of the month through much of the country, including the SE, per recent model consensus. Don't put the bathing suit up yet..even Mack way up in IA...well @Tarheel1 you might want to wear a different one from your profile pic
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It will warm up but I don’t think a record setting degree of warmth like last year. Plus dew points will be better and let’s face it, that’s what really matters. I’m fine with a few more days for pop up swims at the pool.


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Cloudy, 82 degrees, a little muggy, but nothing overbearing, dewpoint is around 60. Hoping the rain bands move a bit further north than progged. We really need some rain here, especially with a long dry spell ahead.
 
Watch the interaction and potential capture of Teddy in a few days and how the jet responds. It may help build a pseudo -nao look. Not sure if we can net any real benefit though as the pattern across the US favors + heights in the NE
 
SD said:
I think @metwannabe has a legit shot at the upper 30s Tuesday morning
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Yeah not gonna lie been thinking it was possible if winds go calm. I've never had highs in the 60's, when it's clear, low humidity, that didn't drop into upper 30's under perfect radiational conditions (I'll not say never but it's rare)
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah not gonna lie been thinking it was possible if winds go calm. I've never had highs in the 60's, when it's clear, low humidity, that didn't drop into upper 30's under perfect radiational conditions (I'll not say never but it's rare)
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Yeah I'm not 1000% sure we can go totally calm but Tuesday morning would be the day to do it.

What a run coming up though I could see most of the non urban locations going on a run of 40s from Sunday through Wednesday mornings, maybe even Thursday.
 
SD said:
Yeah I'm not 1000% sure we can go totally calm but Tuesday morning would be the day to do it.

What a run coming up though I could see most of the non urban locations going on a run of 40s from Sunday through Wednesday mornings, maybe even Thursday.
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Honestly thats really not that unusual for late September. I think the warm September's the last few years has made people forgot how September's used to be.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Honestly thats really not that unusual for late September. I think the warm September's the last few years has made people forgot how September's used to be.
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Averages are more so in the upper 70s/low 80s around much of NC out the mountains with avg lows in the low 60s/upper 50s, it’s sorta unusual
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah not gonna lie been thinking it was possible if winds go calm. I've never had highs in the 60's, when it's clear, low humidity, that didn't drop into upper 30's under perfect radiational conditions (I'll not say never but it's rare)
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NWS grid forecast shows a lot of lower 50s for lows (~central NC). But I agree with you, with clear skies and dew points in the upper 30s to low 40s we should see lower temps that 50s. I suppose overnight wind/mixing is the only factor that would support higher temps.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Honestly thats really not that unusual for late September. I think the warm September's the last few years has made people forgot how September's used to be.
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It's certainly on the cool side of a seasonable cold shot. The record low for 9/22 at RDU is 42, if all goes well we could make a run at that
 
SD said:
It's certainly on the cool side of a seasonable cold shot. The record low for 9/22 at RDU is 42, if all goes well we could make a run at that
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RAH is starting to bring the low temps down. They even mentioned a stray upper 30 or two:

As has been advertised, temps will start out more resembling late
October or early November, topping out in the mid 60s to around 70
Sat through Mon, with lows generally from the mid 40s to mid 50s,
coolest N and NW. Mon night is shaping up to be the coolest night,
as the surface ridge settles southward toward NC with a slackening
MSLP gradient and clear skies. Expect lows in the 40s to around 50,
but I wouldn`t be surprised to see a stray low in the upper 30s near
the VA border. As the air mass modifies within the new/evolved
surface high, temps should peak in the upper 60s to lower 70s Tue
then in 70s Wed and upper 70s to lower 80s Thu. Lows around 45-50
Tue night should rebound into the 50s by Fri morning. -GIH
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Honestly thats really not that unusual for late September. I think the warm September's the last few years has made people forgot how September's used to be.
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Average coldest temparture for high in September is 69 and for low 49 at RDU. So yes this is VERY unusual. For the love of god y’all check the stats before and don’t rely on anecdotes ! I’m sorry it is just a pet peeve of mine. Coldest September low is 35 for reference , upper 30s is right by that.
 
FallsLake said:
RAH is starting to bring the low temps down. They even mentioned a stray upper 30 or two:

As has been advertised, temps will start out more resembling late
October or early November, topping out in the mid 60s to around 70
Sat through Mon, with lows generally from the mid 40s to mid 50s,
coolest N and NW. Mon night is shaping up to be the coolest night,
as the surface ridge settles southward toward NC with a slackening
MSLP gradient and clear skies. Expect lows in the 40s to around 50,
but I wouldn`t be surprised to see a stray low in the upper 30s near
the VA border. As the air mass modifies within the new/evolved
surface high, temps should peak in the upper 60s to lower 70s Tue
then in 70s Wed and upper 70s to lower 80s Thu. Lows around 45-50
Tue night should rebound into the 50s by Fri morning. -GIH
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Yeah they like to give a disguised shout out to me every once in a while ?
 
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FallsLake said:
RAH is starting to bring the low temps down. They even mentioned a stray upper 30 or two:

As has been advertised, temps will start out more resembling late
October or early November, topping out in the mid 60s to around 70
Sat through Mon, with lows generally from the mid 40s to mid 50s,
coolest N and NW. Mon night is shaping up to be the coolest night,
as the surface ridge settles southward toward NC with a slackening
MSLP gradient and clear skies. Expect lows in the 40s to around 50,
but I wouldn`t be surprised to see a stray low in the upper 30s near
the VA border. As the air mass modifies within the new/evolved
surface high, temps should peak in the upper 60s to lower 70s Tue
then in 70s Wed and upper 70s to lower 80s Thu. Lows around 45-50
Tue night should rebound into the 50s by Fri morning. -GIH
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Just something I’ve noticed , these highs like to park themselves over us . Oftentimes we see nights colder than or the same as New England . Why do these highs park themselves over northern NC ? Only 2 other locations in east coast of the us I can think of that seem to favor massive amounts of radiational cooling . North Florida / South Georgia , northern NC / southern va, and parts of New Hampshire / Maine . It’s Colorado 2.0 here .
 
I’d have to say if we frost this early our growing season would be the shortest ever . Literally mid may to mid September . That’s the kind of growing season you get in super high latitude subarctic places in eastern Canada .
 
I have zero complaints about this past spring and summer, zero. I prefer higher humidity because it keeps daytime temperatures moderated and rainfall chances higher. Its led to less than twenty 90F or greater days where I live and almost 70" of rain so far. I'll take that any year.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Yea this summer was pretty weak sauce all things considered. Never really sniffed 100 and it rained a lot more than normal. Maybe last year just scared me for life, I never want a repeat.
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This summer was very short and intense humidity wise imo. Honestly felt like an 8-week summer only.
 
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