Tropical Hurricane Ernesto

[Belle Lechat]

 

[lexxnchloe]

https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi

 

[Belle Lechat]

Highlighting this line
1200UTC 15.08.2024 84 22.7N 71.1W 1006 43

43 kts=49.48 mph

Let's see how long it really takes to go up 3 knots.

Almost there!

144200 1610N 05446W 9781 00327 0150 +252 +230 116028 032 042 000 00

 

[Belle Lechat]

the lack of a well-defined center means it will remain a potential tropical cyclone for this advisory.

1	08/11 5:00 PM	13.6N	48.0W	30MPH	1010mb	Wnw at 21 MPH	Ptnl	Five	08/11 4:57 PM	Hagen/cangialosi
1A	08/11 8:00 PM	13.9N	49.1W	30MPH	1009mb	Wnw at 23 MPH	Ptnl	Five	08/11 7:45 PM	Pasch
2	08/11 11:00 PM	14.1N	50.1W	30MPH	1009mb	Wnw at 23 MPH	Ptnl	Five	08/11 10:45 PM	Pasch
2A	08/12 2:00 AM	14.3N	51.4W	30MPH	1009mb	Wnw at 23 MPH	Ptnl	Five	08/12 1:36 AM	Beven
3	08/12 5:00 AM	14.4N	52.5W	30MPH	1009mb	W at 25 MPH	Ptnl	Five	08/12 4:54 AM	Beven
3A	08/12 8:00 AM	14.6N	54.3W	30MPH	1009mb	W at 26 MPH	Ptnl	Five	08/12 8:00 AM	Reinhart
4	08/12 11:00 AM	15.1N	55.6W	35MPH	1010mb	W at 26 MPH	Ptnl	Five	08/12 11:03 AM	Reinhart

 

[Belle Lechat]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

INIT 12/1500Z 15.1N 55.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 13/0000Z 15.5N 58.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 13/1200Z 16.3N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 17.3N 64.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 18.8N 66.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 20.5N 67.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 22.7N 68.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 27.0N 67.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 31.5N 65.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

 

[Belle Lechat]

150400 1523N 05444W 9780 00325 0146 +245 +230 146027 028 046 001 00
46 kts=53 mph

 

[Belle Lechat]

Status: En Route

 

[StoneColdHeel]

Fishy storm. So far we have been lucky this year with only 2 systems impacting the US.

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[GaWx]

Fishy storm. So far we have been lucky this year with only 2 systems impacting the US.

The US having already had 2 hurricanes hit by early August is tied for 2nd highest on record back to 1851. Only 1886 had more. Not a good sign of things to come.
Bermuda is at risk for a hit from Ernesto.

 

[SD]

I don't think the NE is completely out of the woods on this yet given the potential for the first trough to exit just quick enough for a period of curving back to the NNW or even NW as the first trough exits

 

[StoneColdHeel]

The US having already had 2 hurricanes hit by early August is tied for 2nd highest on record back to 1851. Only 1886 had more. Not a good sign of things to come.
Bermuda is at risk for a hit from Ernesto.

Yeah, we still have September to get through, which is the peak season. Hopefully it will be like last year with the systems going out to sea.

 

[GaWx]

12Z runs:
-CMC just W of Bermuda and misses Canada
-ICON well W of Bermuda like 0Z
-GFS 150 miles W of Bermuda and later hits SE Newfoundland
-UKMET TCG sooner; good bit E of 0Z run and goes over Bermuda

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 17.5N 63.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.08.2024 36 18.0N 64.7W 1009 30
1200UTC 14.08.2024 48 19.6N 66.8W 1008 37
0000UTC 15.08.2024 60 21.1N 68.2W 1006 45
1200UTC 15.08.2024 72 24.2N 68.6W 1003 49
0000UTC 16.08.2024 84 25.5N 68.2W 1001 45
1200UTC 16.08.2024 96 26.9N 67.2W 998 52
0000UTC 17.08.2024 108 27.5N 65.9W 997 50
1200UTC 17.08.2024 120 28.9N 65.6W 996 48
0000UTC 18.08.2024 132 29.7N 65.0W 993 45
1200UTC 18.08.2024 144 30.6N 65.8W 992 38
0000UTC 19.08.2024 156 32.0N 65.2W 992 43
1200UTC 19.08.2024 168 34.7N 64.5W 991 48

 

[Belle Lechat]

161600 1318N 05920W 6282 04053 0080 +055 +022 082015 017 /// /// 03
11:16 CDT
1008.0 mb

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

I've never seen a creepy-looking storm.

 

[lexxnchloe]

I've never seen a creepy-looking storm.

Most models keep it rather weak until it gets into the subtropics north of the Islands. Probably will be a major at some point.

 

[jeremyt]

Fishy storm. So far we have been lucky this year with only 2 systems impacting the US.

That’s 50%

 

[Brent]

Fishy storm. So far we have been lucky this year with only 2 systems impacting the US.

And one was a Category 5 in June which has never happened before. The signs are still bad that we have a long way to go this season

In other news we should have Ernesto at 5

 

[Stormsfury]

I think the next update will be full advisories on TD 5 or straight to Ernesto as it appears now that RECON might have found a circulation center and visible satellite seems to be bearing out that possibility, despite it still booking to the West at 26 mph like it's late for a grand slam breakfast platter.