Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024
...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
APPROACHING BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 68.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024
The satellite structure of Ernesto has somewhat improved tonight. A
series of earlier SSMI/S 91 GHz passive microwave images showed the
formation of a mid-level eye, and there have been recent hints of an
eye trying to emerge in proxy-visible satellite images. Data from
the Air Force Hurricane Hunters showed the central pressure has
fallen to 982 mb, and the aircraft measured peak 700-mb flight-level
winds of 76 kt in the northeast quadrant. Based on these data, the
initial intensity is set at 70 kt. The wind field remains quite
broad and asymmetric, with the strongest aircraft winds well to the
northeast of the center. The next aircraft reconnaissance mission
into Ernesto is scheduled for tomorrow morning.
Ernesto is now moving north-northwestward at 330/14 kt. The
hurricane will continue on a north-northwestward to northward motion
during the next day or so while moving through a break in the
subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. The global models agree
the upper trough that weakened the ridge will not capture Ernesto.
As a result, Ernesto will move slower to the north-northeast and
north while the hurricane approaches and moves near Bermuda Friday
night and Saturday. Later this weekend, a second trough will move
across the eastern U.S., and Ernesto should accelerate northeastward
early next week within the deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of
this feature. The NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the
previous one, as the track guidance remains in good overall
agreement. It is still too soon to know exactly how close Ernesto's
center will move to Bermuda this weekend, but warnings will likely
be required for the island on Thursday.
While there is still evidence of some drier air nearby Ernesto, the
very warm ocean waters and weak to moderate shear should promote
some strengthening during the next couple of days. This is supported
by the bulk of the intensity guidance, and the regional hurricane
models still favor Ernesto reaching major hurricane intensity on
Friday. The latest NHC prediction remains on the high end of the
guidance envelope, closest to the HFIP corrected consensus. Some
gradual weakening is forecast thereafter as Ernesto moves into a
drier, more sheared environment. There are some indications that
positive interaction with the second upper trough could cause
Ernesto's intensity to level off or even slightly increase during
the 60-96 h time period while still over warm waters. By 120 h, the
model fields suggest Ernesto will be on the verge of losing tropical
characteristics while accelerating over cooler waters.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0300Z 23.0N 68.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 24.7N 69.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 26.8N 68.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 28.6N 67.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 30.5N 66.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 32.2N 65.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 34.0N 65.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 38.5N 63.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 45.0N 55.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Reinhart