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Possible Severe Weather April 22nd-23rd

Darklordsuperstorm

Darklordsuperstorm

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Must be April in Dixie Alley. In addition to the threat this weekend. Models are hinting at another possibly more robust system at the middle of next week. While this has not formally been out looked yet by SPC I imagine it will be soon if these trends continue.
 
Darklordsuperstorm said:
Must be April in Dixie Alley. In addition to the threat this weekend. Models are hinting at another possibly more robust system at the middle of next week. While this has not formally been out looked yet by SPC I imagine it will be soon if these trends continue.
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This one is one to watch for some. I expect heavy rain at very least


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Definitely think it's time to go ahead & pull the trigger on a thread, severe weather in some way, shape, or form is going to occur in the southeastern US in the middle-latter part of next week w/ a pattern like the one that's been consistently forecast on the models the last several days, but now we're getting inside day 6 and the internal consistency & confidence in a threat is growing.
A few things that are basically given at this point is we won't have anywhere near the amount of deep layer shear & forcing as last weekend, because the subtropical jet is waning as the Kelvin Wave that was dumping westerly momentum into it is entering the Indian Ocean & the deep layer flow will be weaker, and thus this wave will be moving considerably slower than the last two which could aid in boundary layer recovery, however there are a few caveats to this...

Some synoptic details, esp how the northward extent *could* be limited by this trough being forecast over New England remain to be resolved. If this trough hangs back a bit longer & digs, the lateral extent of the warm sector & areal extent of any tornado & damaging wind threat would go down and elevated convection will become more prevalent, esp in the upper south.

Here's a compilation of 500mb anomaly patterns from every major NWP model & some of their ensembles. Again, some synoptic-scale details still need to be ironed out but we're almost certainly going to see severe weather east of the Rockies and south of the Ohio River this time next week. I expect the SPC to denote this threat in the next day or two in their convective outlooks.

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From BMX


Behind this system, a dry period is expected Monday and Tuesday as
high pressure takes control. On Wednesday and Thursday, another
trough is expected to take a southerly track across the Southern
Plains toward the Deep South as the suppressed weather pattern
continues. Moisture return will begin on Wednesday, and
thunderstorms may enter the picture for Thursday. Severe weather
could become a concern in future forecasts.
 
Looking at the euro it has a 992 mb low in prime posistion for severe weather.Screenshot_20200418-104812_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
I’m more concerned about this one then I am about the one on Sunday


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Jessy89 said:
If I’m not mistaken it looks scary similar to Easter Sunday event. Am I missing something?


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We won't have nearly the amount of large-scale forcing, but the this event will probably last longer because the parent wave will be moving considerably slower. I'm starting to become more concerned about the system behind this at day 9, if anything. The potential for a cut-off upper low over the Ohio & Tennessee Valley in late April spells big trouble for those SE of it.
 
Webberweather53 said:
We're playing with fire.

View attachment 39747


View attachment 39748

View attachment 39749
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The one very big caveat here though is there's a lot less separation between our southern stream s/w and the trough over New England, and unlike our Easter outbreak, this trough over New England has been slowing down too, which will limit the strength and lateral extent of the warm sector. This is usually the kind of pattern in January or February that would produce a big winter storm in the Carolinas and much of the southern US in general (an overrunning event). Funny how your entire perspective changes just a few months later.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_fh96_trend (2).gifecmwf-ens_z500a_us_fh96_trend (2).gif
 
This one is gonna be close, kinda think NC will be included in this one, GFS ticked north a bit with the trough in Canada and the SW itself, btw this run was bad for other areas with this systemEF382A48-24EB-4182-86BC-F704541A02FA.pngF64C2D64-F36D-4176-B922-4A0636C80E30.png194357EA-FAE3-44A3-8080-488EB29C6312.png
 
This pattern is basically lights out for anyone not over the Arklatex or right along the Gulf coast, good luck getting any surface based CAPE whatsoever with a 513dm closed low sitting over Maine. Can't complain though, that means we get an extended stretch of nice(r) weather here and summer is put on hold just a wee bit longer in the SE US.

Seriously, where tf was this pattern in January?

500h_anom.conus (4).png
 
Webberweather53 said:
This pattern is basically lights out for anyone not over the Arklatex or right along the Gulf coast, good luck getting any surface based CAPE whatsoever with a 513dm closed low sitting over Maine. Can't complain though, that means we get an extended stretch of nice(r) weather here and summer is put on hold just a wee bit longer in the SE US.

Seriously, where tf was this pattern in January?

View attachment 39825
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I still think in May we switch to summer.
 
RollTide18 said:
Tbh I'd rather deal with the classic 90 degree temps with isolated storms than threats of strong tornadoes every weekend. Bring on Summer.
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Just wish the temp will stop rising after it hits 85 lol


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Nah I could do without the mid-90s+. Although if we are going to keep getting severe threats I would prefer to see the SE ridge return in full. It's a tough balancer because if the ridge returns (even if it's not significant, just enough to deflect), it's going to be hot, and it would be now if it was here honestly.

It's like how I'd prefer it to not be in the low 50s right now but if it's going to be the sacrifice to not get major storms I'll deal with it.
 
RollTide18 said:
Tbh I'd rather deal with the classic 90 degree temps with isolated storms than threats of strong tornadoes every weekend. Bring on Summer.
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And it beats what it does in the winter anymore, which is rain, rain, rain 5 out of every 7 ------- days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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This is a sounding for upstate sc on the latest nam. Starting to signal a red flag for this system yikes


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Cbmatt2408 said:
West-Central GA, SW GA and SE AL is getting PDS TOR sounding from Thurs 21z-Fri 00z.
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Yep this one definitely a system we should be talking about right now. Potential is there to be bigger then yesterday’s outbreak


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That's in the too far out range for the NAM and that sounding is CAPE inhibited. I will be more interested in what the NAM shows from about around 60 hours. At 60 hours it did look like that LP system in the NE wasn't as suppressed or as strong as a recent Euro to me but I just glanced.
 
What's most frustrating to me is that these events keep coming through locally at night.

If they're going to happen, it would be nice for them to occur during peak heating.
 
SouthATLwx said:
What's most frustrating to me is that these events keep coming through locally at night.

If they're going to happen, it would be nice for them to occur during peak heating.
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While I know the NAM is probably too far out to be reliable, the soundings are for 4-7 PM Thursday for our area. Which would be completely different than the last two rounds.
 
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