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Possible Severe Weather April 22nd-23rd
- Thread starter Darklordsuperstorm
- Start date
I think people are reading too much into things.
DustinWx
Moderator
Stop trolling
RollTide18
Member
Yeah not often that you see storms directly north of stratiform, either the HRRR is blowing up the storms too quick or the stratiform being shown is incorrect.
12km Nam vs 3km Nam STP values tomorrow evening.
12km Nam
3km Nam
Quite the difference. Lol.
12km Nam
3km Nam
Quite the difference. Lol.
Jrips2710
Member
I was just about to post these exact maps. What a strange situation. 3K NAM doesn't even look that cluttered with rain/storms. The atmosphere just never recovers in the afternoon
Jessy89
Member
Chris justice is trying to be scary calling for strong tornados along and south of 85. Saying the models say it’s becoming more possible for strong tornadoes. Not sure what he’s seeing but Nam isn’t that impressive
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Snowflowxxl
Member
The 12km NAM is going to get clowned hard tomorrow. What a joke for a model.
Really not I read GSP discussion and looked over the model guidance. I trust local NWS for my weather.
SWB
Member
We got light rain and slow rolling thunder here.
fwiw, I wanna bet that line of storms tomorrow is gonna be quite photogenic, it’s barreling into stable low levels which often gives it that stacked/pancake look, if you wanna capture some good picture that line of storms and it’s shelf cloud, that would be it
Brent
Member
storms so far a no show west of here
Hrrr not showing much for you anymore.
pcbjr
Member
Rather long, but a good write up from JAX ...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
226 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2020
...WARM AND BREEZY THU BEFORE WET WEATHER RETURNS WITH SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL LATE THU AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI...
.NEAR TERM [Through Thu Tonight]...
Continued dry and stable conditions this afternoon into the
evening with stacked high pressure over the region as surface high
pressure builds offshore of the SE Atlantic coast. Surface winds
will veer farther to the ESE into the evening with gusts near 15
mph trailing the east coast sea breeze is it advanced inland. High
temperatures were topping our closer toward climo values ranging
from the mid 70s along the Atlantic coast to the lower 80s inland
toward the I-75 corridor under mostly clear skies with only
increasing high cirrus clouds from the west. Tonight, mild low
temperature will trend above climo with warmer SSE flow developing
as a warm front lifts north of the Altamaha River basin after
midnight. A low chance of some spotty showers across SE GA zones
after midnight through sunrise Thu morning, but overall still dry
conditions with boundary layer winds increasing through the night
and increasing mid and high clouds to prevent significant fog
formation.
Thu & Thu Night...Warm and breezy with warm air advection ahead of
approaching storm system with SSW winds increasing to 15-20 mph by
midday and gusts up to 35 mph at times especially near bodies of
water. Although a stray shower may skirt near our NW GA zones
through 18z (2 pm Thu), most models have come into agreement with
dry low level air across the local area preventing rain chances
until later in the afternoon and evening focused across SE GA and
the Suwannee River Valley of inland NE FL where a pre-frontal line
of storms is expected into the early evening hours. The momentum
of this first round of severe weather potential is expected to
wane into the early evening as stronger forcing lifts NE with a
mid level short wave trough, with a brief lull in severe weather
potential possible Thu night between 03-09z until yet another
short wave trough deepens across the eastern GOMEX along the
actual surface cold front. This second wave of severe storm
potential will likely reignite storms lingering across SE GA
through sunrise Fri with intensification of storms ahead of yet a
newer pre-frontal line of storms moving across the FL panhandle
and toward the Suwannee River Valley of NE FL through 09z Fri
spreading eastward across the I-10 corridor of NE FL through 12z.
There remains a tornado threat and hail potential with this system
as it approaches SE GA late Thu afternoon into the evening where
higher helicity (200 s2/m2+) will coincide with SSW 850 mb winds
increasing to 45-60 kts under bulk 0-6 km shear of near 70 kts. In
addition, mid level lapse rates will cool to -8 to -10 deg/c per
the GFS, with this elevated instability spreading southward across
NE FL through Fri morning. Stronger wind GUST potential will edge
inland across NE FL and our SE GA zones Thu evening and overnight
through Friday as low level SW winds increase out of the GOMEX
nosing higher dew pts inland across the Suwannee River Valley and
allowing better potential for stronger wind gusts to mix down
toward the surface along and ahead of the surface front.
In addition to severe storm potential, there is a localized flood
threat with the slow moving frontal zone edging southward across
our SE GA zones during the pre-dawn hours Fri and gradually
beginning to stall over the FL peninsula. Unseasonably high PWAT
of 1.6-2 inches under phased upper level jet streams providing
deep layer divergence will under uni-directional flow will
certainly favor training cells and locally heavy rainfall.
.SHORT TERM [Friday through Saturday Night]...
A secondary line of convection with the pre- frontal trof will
move south of U.S. 82 by the daylight hours Friday morning and
then south of I-10 by late morning into the early afternoon. There
is still some difference between the models but this solution is
starting to slowly converge to this solution. Friday morning into
the early afternoon there is plenty of unidirectional
southwesterly speed shear and CAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg. During
daylight morning hours into the afternoon believe the main mode
with be gusty thunderstorms winds associated with bowing segments
but other modes will present such as isolated tornadoes,hail and
pockets of heavy rain. By mid afternoon, the best convection
should be confined to south of FL SR16. The remnants of the
frontal boundary is likely to stall over SE GA or near the FL/GA
border on Friday afternoon, potentially leading to an another
round of showers and storms with a possibility of severe storm
conditions on Saturday as a secondary front moves through the
region. Upper trof axis swings trough the region Saturday night
with isolated chances of residual showers south of I-10.
Temperatures for the end of the week will be above the seasonal
average, with high temperatures reaching up into the upper 80s for
areas under the influence of a warm front. Overnight low
temperatures will range withing the 60s.
.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Wednesday]...
The last remaining elements of convection will disperse on Sunday
as high pressure and cool air builds in behind the frontal passage,
leading to lower temps, dry air, and clear skies for the
beginning of next week. Temperatures during this period are
expected to be just slightly below the seasonal average before
warming into the lower to mid 80s by Tuesday.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is requested Thursday afternoon through Friday.
Spotters should safely report significant weather conditions and/or
damage by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSJacksonville.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
226 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2020
...WARM AND BREEZY THU BEFORE WET WEATHER RETURNS WITH SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL LATE THU AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI...
.NEAR TERM [Through Thu Tonight]...
Continued dry and stable conditions this afternoon into the
evening with stacked high pressure over the region as surface high
pressure builds offshore of the SE Atlantic coast. Surface winds
will veer farther to the ESE into the evening with gusts near 15
mph trailing the east coast sea breeze is it advanced inland. High
temperatures were topping our closer toward climo values ranging
from the mid 70s along the Atlantic coast to the lower 80s inland
toward the I-75 corridor under mostly clear skies with only
increasing high cirrus clouds from the west. Tonight, mild low
temperature will trend above climo with warmer SSE flow developing
as a warm front lifts north of the Altamaha River basin after
midnight. A low chance of some spotty showers across SE GA zones
after midnight through sunrise Thu morning, but overall still dry
conditions with boundary layer winds increasing through the night
and increasing mid and high clouds to prevent significant fog
formation.
Thu & Thu Night...Warm and breezy with warm air advection ahead of
approaching storm system with SSW winds increasing to 15-20 mph by
midday and gusts up to 35 mph at times especially near bodies of
water. Although a stray shower may skirt near our NW GA zones
through 18z (2 pm Thu), most models have come into agreement with
dry low level air across the local area preventing rain chances
until later in the afternoon and evening focused across SE GA and
the Suwannee River Valley of inland NE FL where a pre-frontal line
of storms is expected into the early evening hours. The momentum
of this first round of severe weather potential is expected to
wane into the early evening as stronger forcing lifts NE with a
mid level short wave trough, with a brief lull in severe weather
potential possible Thu night between 03-09z until yet another
short wave trough deepens across the eastern GOMEX along the
actual surface cold front. This second wave of severe storm
potential will likely reignite storms lingering across SE GA
through sunrise Fri with intensification of storms ahead of yet a
newer pre-frontal line of storms moving across the FL panhandle
and toward the Suwannee River Valley of NE FL through 09z Fri
spreading eastward across the I-10 corridor of NE FL through 12z.
There remains a tornado threat and hail potential with this system
as it approaches SE GA late Thu afternoon into the evening where
higher helicity (200 s2/m2+) will coincide with SSW 850 mb winds
increasing to 45-60 kts under bulk 0-6 km shear of near 70 kts. In
addition, mid level lapse rates will cool to -8 to -10 deg/c per
the GFS, with this elevated instability spreading southward across
NE FL through Fri morning. Stronger wind GUST potential will edge
inland across NE FL and our SE GA zones Thu evening and overnight
through Friday as low level SW winds increase out of the GOMEX
nosing higher dew pts inland across the Suwannee River Valley and
allowing better potential for stronger wind gusts to mix down
toward the surface along and ahead of the surface front.
In addition to severe storm potential, there is a localized flood
threat with the slow moving frontal zone edging southward across
our SE GA zones during the pre-dawn hours Fri and gradually
beginning to stall over the FL peninsula. Unseasonably high PWAT
of 1.6-2 inches under phased upper level jet streams providing
deep layer divergence will under uni-directional flow will
certainly favor training cells and locally heavy rainfall.
.SHORT TERM [Friday through Saturday Night]...
A secondary line of convection with the pre- frontal trof will
move south of U.S. 82 by the daylight hours Friday morning and
then south of I-10 by late morning into the early afternoon. There
is still some difference between the models but this solution is
starting to slowly converge to this solution. Friday morning into
the early afternoon there is plenty of unidirectional
southwesterly speed shear and CAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg. During
daylight morning hours into the afternoon believe the main mode
with be gusty thunderstorms winds associated with bowing segments
but other modes will present such as isolated tornadoes,hail and
pockets of heavy rain. By mid afternoon, the best convection
should be confined to south of FL SR16. The remnants of the
frontal boundary is likely to stall over SE GA or near the FL/GA
border on Friday afternoon, potentially leading to an another
round of showers and storms with a possibility of severe storm
conditions on Saturday as a secondary front moves through the
region. Upper trof axis swings trough the region Saturday night
with isolated chances of residual showers south of I-10.
Temperatures for the end of the week will be above the seasonal
average, with high temperatures reaching up into the upper 80s for
areas under the influence of a warm front. Overnight low
temperatures will range withing the 60s.
.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Wednesday]...
The last remaining elements of convection will disperse on Sunday
as high pressure and cool air builds in behind the frontal passage,
leading to lower temps, dry air, and clear skies for the
beginning of next week. Temperatures during this period are
expected to be just slightly below the seasonal average before
warming into the lower to mid 80s by Tuesday.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is requested Thursday afternoon through Friday.
Spotters should safely report significant weather conditions and/or
damage by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSJacksonville.
What an interesting forecast for this one. Models are going back and forth and back and forth. The morning rain mass then never clears out/light rain mass then all hell breaks loose. What a tough forecast to be honest.
Brent
Member
It makes you question the HRRR and how it relates to tomorrow's event. Since it is constantly has been showing all the pre frontal mess.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Atlanta should be in a marginal risk for afternoon sprinkles
pcbjr
Member