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Severe POSS SEVERE WEATHER STARTING 05-17-2019 and BEYOND

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...

..SUMMARY

AN OUTBREAK OF STRONG TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION,
MANY OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONCENTRATED FROM WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA, KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHEAST NEW YORK INTO
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.

...TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...

..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS

AN IMPRESSIVE AND POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY AS A POWERFUL 75 TO 90
KNOT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM, A CORRIDOR OF STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. AS THE MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, A TORNADO OUTBREAK IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE TORNADO OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THIS EVENT SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO LIFE AND
PROPERTY.
 
Capture.JPGCapture1.JPGCapture2.JPGCapture3.JPG
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of strong tornadoes and severe thunderstorms is expected
today across parts of the southern and central Plains. In addition,
many of the storms will have very large hail and wind damage. The
severe threat will be concentrated from west Texas and the Texas
Panhandle eastward across Oklahoma, Kansas into western Missouri and
western Arkansas. Additional severe storms with wind damage and hail
will be possible this afternoon from southeast New York into
southern and central New England.

...Tornado Outbreak Expected Across the Southern Plains Today Into
Tonight...

...Southern and Central Plains...
An impressive and potent upper-level trough will move quickly
eastward across the Desert Southwest today as a powerful 75 to 90
knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the trough. Ahead of the
system, a corridor of strong instability is forecast across the
Southern Plains from west Texas into the eastern Texas Panhandle and
eastward into western and central Oklahoma. This combined with steep
mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level shear will be very
favorable for severe storms. As the mid-level jet ejects
northeastward across the southern High Plains this afternoon and
evening, a tornado outbreak is likely across the southern Plains.
The tornado outbreak is expected to continue into the overnight
period. This event should result in a significant threat to life and
property.

RAP forecast soundings late this afternoon along the instability
corridor from Childress, Texas northeastward to Clinton, Oklahoma
show MLCAPE values of 3000 to 4500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 50
to 65 kt range. In addition, hodographs are large and looped with
0-1 km shear values in the 30 to 40 kt range. This environment
should be very favorable for supercells and tornadoes. 0-3 km
storm-relative helicities are forecast to steadily increase from
about 300 m2/s2 in the late afternoon to about 450 m2/s2 by early
evening as an anomalously strong low-level jet becomes better
focused. This will be ideal for a tornado outbreak with strong
tornadoes upstream and to the west of the low-level jet.

The current thinking concerning the details is that the first round
of severe storms will begin early as thunderstorms initiate in west
Texas and move northeastward into the eastern Texas Panhandle by mid
to late morning. Initially, large hail will be the main threat but
as these storms mature, tornadoes will be possible with the stronger
and more dominant cells. Additional supercells with tornado
potential are expected to initiate near the warm front in western
and central Oklahoma. A tornado threat will transition to large hail
and wind damage as the storms move into Kansas to the north side of
the boundary. This first round of severe storms is forecast to move
northeastward, away from the warm sector, allowing for the
development of extreme instability during the mid to late afternoon
from northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma.

The second round of severe storms is expected to start during the
late afternoon as repeat initiation takes place in west Texas. Rapid
supercell formation is forecast along the I-27 corridor from the
vicinity of Lubbock northward to just south of Amarillo. A cluster
of tornadic supercells is then forecast to move northeastward into
northwest Texas and the southeastern Texas Panhandle during the
early evening. Additional tornadic supercells are forecast to
rapidly develop in southwest Oklahoma and move northeastward into
west-central Oklahoma. At that time, the strengthening low-level jet
will couple with a highly progressive and seasonably strong
mid-level jet, making conditions favorable for long-track strong
tornadoes and possibly violent tornadoes.

The greatest threat for long-track tornadoes will exist along the
corridor from near Lubbock northeastward to Childress, Altus,
Lawton, Clinton to just west of the Oklahoma City and Enid
vicinities. After considerable deliberation, a High risk will be
issued for parts of west Texas, the southeastern Texas Panhandle
into western Oklahoma.

In addition to the tornado threat, conditions will be very favorable
for large hail and wind damage. Strong instability, enhanced
deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will make
hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter possible with the
more intense supercells, mainly in west Texas and the western half
of Oklahoma. A wind-damage threat will also exist across much of the
southern Plains due to the expected intense nature of the storms.
The wind-damage threat, including some gusts above 70 kt, should
become widespread during the late evening into the overnight period
as squall line organizes and moves quickly eastward across the
southern Plains.
 
PRETTY STRONG WORDING HERE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
300 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

...VOLATILE SETUP LATER TODAY WITH A TORNADO OUTBREAK LIKELY...

.DISCUSSION...
THIS FORECASTER'S FINAL SHIFT AT WFO LUBBOCK IS PROVING TO BE A
MEMORABLE ONE AS OUR FORECAST AREA HAS ITS FIRST HIGH RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SINCE THE EVENING OF APRIL 16, 2009. WHILE THERE
ARE ALWAYS METEOROLOGICAL CONS WITH TORNADO OUTBREAK PATTERNS,
THE OVERARCHING THEMES ARE USUALLY COMPRISED OF A BROAD REGION OF
HIGH INSTABILITY OVERLAPPING WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLY LOW LCL AND LFC HEIGHTS. SUCH IS THE CASE TODAY AS A
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH FROM NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AT
2 AM AHEAD OF VERY RICH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AROUND 7 AM AND
CONTINUE NORTH TO NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY LATE MORNING. THIS
LATTER NORTHWARD PROGRESS MAY BE -------- A BIT BY OUTFLOW FROM
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING TO
MATERIALIZE IN FAR EASTERN NM. THIS ENHANCED ASCENT IS COURTESY OF
A 700 MB TROUGH IN NM (SEE 00Z RAOBS) TRAILING A STOUT THERMAL
RIDGE. THIS THERMAL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS LATER
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. HAIL
WILL BE THE INITIAL THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN ELEVATED
BUOYANCY APPROACHING 2000 J/KG, BUT AS THE MORNING WEARS ON WE
EXPECT INSTABILITY TO BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA AS THE WARM SECTOR DEEPENS AND TAPS INTO CAPES AT OR ABOVE
3000 J/KG. HOWEVER, A STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ IS PROGGED TO VEER
SOUTH AND SHIFT OFF THE CAPROCK AFTER 9 AM. THIS PROCESS SHOULD
SERVE TO DETER A MORE CREDIBLE TORNADO THREAT FROM UNFOLDING THIS
MORNING AND IS WHY THE HREF MEAN CRATERS 0-1KM SRH VALUES TO BELOW
100. NONETHELESS, WITH LCLS LOWERING TO 1000 METERS OR EVEN
LOWER, THE PATTERN LATER THIS MORNING STILL BEARS WATCH FOR
TORNADOES AS SUPERCELLS WILL HAVE AMPLE NEAR-SURFACE BUOYANCY FOR
VERTICAL STRETCHING.

THE HREF MEAN HAS BEEN PERFORMING ADMIRABLY THUS FAR WITH
CONVECTION. ITS DEPICTION OF A DECLINE IN PRECIP COVERAGE LATER
THIS MORNING FITS WELL WITH THE ANTICIPATED SUBSIDENCE (ALBEIT
WEAK) BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED 700 MB TROUGH AND NET ISENTROPIC
ASCENT FOCUSING NORTH OF I-40. HOWEVER, MINIMAL CIN AND A
CONTINUED DEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUGGESTS WE MAY SEE A N-S AXIS OF STORMS ON AND OFF THROUGH LATE
MORNING. MEANWHILE ALOFT, WINDS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER ARE
EXPECTED TO VEER SW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD
NUDGE THE DRYLINE A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED,
BUT WE ARE VERY SKEPTICAL OF MOST MODELS (INCLUDING THE HRRR)
SHOWING THE DRYLINE MIXING EAST OF I-27 THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT
THE DRYLINE TO REMAIN A BIT FARTHER WEST DUE TO PRESSURE FALLS
REMAINING IN EASTERN NM AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING. SOME INSOLATION AT TIMES THROUGH
STUBBORN STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY BOOST TEMPS INTO
THE 80S AND GARNER SBCAPES OF 4500+ J/KG. COMBINED WITH 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 50-60 KNOTS AND FAVORABLY VEERED VERTICAL
WIND PROFILES, FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS OF 40-50 MPH TO THE NE ARE
LIKELY. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD ESCALATE QUICKLY BY MID-TO-LATE
AFTERNOON AND MAXIMIZE THIS EVENING FROM THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AS THE LLJ AMPLIFIES AND BEGINS BACKING
TO A DUE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. HISTORY SHOWS THAT SIGNIFICANT
TORNADOES USUALLY FAVOR THE WEST EDGE OF THE LLJ WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO SIT PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO THE CITY OF LUBBOCK.
ALTHOUGH CIN IS MINIMAL, DISCRETE SUPERCELL MODES SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED WITH A DEFINITE WINDOW FOR LONG-TRACK TORNADOES MAINLY
OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE GREATEST (25 KNOTS OR
MORE). AS A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH APPROACHES THIS EVENING, STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS AND A PACIFIC FRONT WILL IMPACT THE DRYLINE (WHICH
SHOULD RETREAT A BIT BEFORE SUNRISE) AND YIELD A LARGE SQUALL
LINE AND PROBABLE QLCS. THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD SWEEP EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE POSSIBLE. THIS
WILL ALSO OPEN THE DOOR TO AREAL FLOODING MAINLY IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS AS THE BOUNDARIES AND FORCING PARALLEL AN AXIS OF PWATS OF
1.5 TO 2 INCHES. WE ARE OPTING TO HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH UNTIL
THIS SCENARIO IS MORE DEFINITE, PARTICULARLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT
EARLIER ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING AND SHOULD
RESULT IN LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS AHEAD OF THE QLCS.
 
Generally, the high risk area is over a sparsely populated area. Of course, one small town getting hit by a large tornado can result in catastrophe. Here’s hoping for spectacular wedges scouring miles of wheat fields and cattle country today. At least we can hope.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Looks like the high risk area has been expanded to include OKC.

View attachment 19665
Click to expand...
Brick, you are correct. Forget what I said about 2 comments ago. There's a huge population in the High Risk area now, and probably 95% of the Population of OK in High or Mod. I feel terrible about this day and in all honesty, I hope it's a bust and that by this time tomorrow we're all pissed about it.
 
Insane observed 12z sounding from midland already, definitely going to be a long day, that sounding itself is already crazy 1AC0BA20-E5EF-4274-809F-B0834E6B1388.jpeg
 
This is not looking pretty today. Also today is the 6th anniversary of the Moore tornado.
 
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