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Severe POSS SEVERE WEATHER STARTING 05-17-2019 and BEYOND

Monday’s threat ain’t no joke in the central plains, I’ve never seen a STP at 17, CIN or fixed, or a SCP that high, that’s insane amounts of low level shear, good streamwise vorticity if a storm was to ingest it in this environment, looks like a sounding you’d find in the SE with a deep moist layer combined with large low level instability with low LCLs + high PWAT, supportive of high precipitation supercells with ground scraping mesocyclones/very low based, there ain’t no cap, so things would get messy, but any storm that remains discrete will have a violent tornado threat, this is a sounding from hell D34E65AE-74A5-4A72-85D2-8D3DBC7B128D.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Monday’s threat ain’t no joke in the central plains, I’ve never seen a STP at 17, CIN or fixed, or a SCP that high, that’s insane amounts of low level shear, good streamwise vorticity if a storm was to ingest it in this environment, looks like a sounding you’d find in the SE with a deep moist layer combined with large low level instability with low LCLs + high PWAT, supportive of high precipitation supercells with ground scraping mesocyclones/very low based, there ain’t no cap, so things would get messy, but any storm that remains discrete will have a violent tornado threat, this is a sounding from hell View attachment 19623
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MY GOD THAT IS A HELL OF A SOUNDING...
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Monday’s threat ain’t no joke in the central plains, I’ve never seen a STP at 17, CIN or fixed, or a SCP that high, that’s insane amounts of low level shear, good streamwise vorticity if a storm was to ingest it in this environment, looks like a sounding you’d find in the SE with a deep moist layer combined with large low level instability with low LCLs + high PWAT, supportive of high precipitation supercells with ground scraping mesocyclones/very low based, there ain’t no cap, so things would get messy, but any storm that remains discrete will have a violent tornado threat, this is a sounding from hell View attachment 19623
Click to expand...
Already a moderate risk area outlined 3 days in advance. Screenshot_20190518-074705_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
As if the tornadoes aren't enough, there was an earthquake in Kansas and Oklahoma yesterday.
 
Theres a actually a decent chance for a significant tornado today over Arkansas and Northeast TX. There is An ongoing line of severe storms over parts of TX and AR day1probotlk_2000_torn.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
Im chasing on Monday and I'm very stoked to see what this setup has to offer. Plan to leave from Houston late tomorrow evening and get to the TX panhandle during the morning in time for what could be a legit first round of storms as early as near sunrise
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ANY WAY YOU GOING TO BE ABLE TO STREAM ANYTHING?
 
Personally think somewhere in/around or between Lubbock and Midland-Odessa near the dry line may be the best play here if you want a beautiful, discrete supercell on Monday, further north storm mode could be an issue with large-scale forcing being driven in part by WAA.
 
A legit round of supercells is becoming probable-likely around dawn over the TX panhandle region and western Oklahoma. These storms will be driven by isentropic upglide, warm advection, and low-level moisture convergence on the leading edge of this surge of warm, moist air from the western Gulf. These lifting mechanisms leading to this early round of activity are very analogous to what we see w/ overrunning events in the wintertime in the SE US except now you'll get to see what happens when we start with a very warm, moist late spring/early summer boundary layer.

Note how the isentropes slope upwards over 100 hPa across western TX tomorrow morning. This is effectively what isentropic upglide looks like in a cross-section. (For those less familiar the isentropes here are solid black lines which are areas of equivalent potential temperature (temperature when you account for adiabatic processes related to rising or sinking air which can cool or warm a column respectively)).

You can also clearly see how the atmosphere is strongly capped except near western TX w/ warmer, dry air around 600-700 hpa overlying a very warm, moist boundary layer.

hrrr_Relative_Humidity_Surface_12_021_33942341_cross_weathernerds.png

nam3km_temp_adv_fgen_850_scus_21.png


Here's surface based CAPE for the same time. These storms will become surface-based the longer they persist into the morning.

hrrr_2019-05-19-12Z_024_36.832_252.852_25.905_266.628_CAPE_Surface_highways_cities.png







hrrr_2019-05-19-12Z_024_36.832_252.852_25.905_266.628_Simulated_Reflectivity_Reflectivity_high...png
 
NWS Lubbock:
"With ongoing warm advection through the day, atmosphere should
recover fairly fast if any storms fire early and early storms may
actually help enhance the risk for more discrete convection later
in the day by increasing the cap a bit allowing the lower
atmosphere to recover. Next issue is when a second round of
convection develops which the CAMs are showing to happen between
19-21Z west of I-27. These storms rapidly intensify and should
quickly start rotating with the deep layer and directional shear
with storms being able to tap into surface parcels. Sounding
analogs are showing the potential for very large hail up to 5
inches in some cases and a few analogs for significant tornadoes
are also showing up in model forecast soundings. Again the
question will be if storms remain discrete or if they will start
to form a line. Discrete storms will increase the threat for very
large hail and tornadoes while a convective line may reduce the
threat somewhat but remaining non-zero."
 
HRRR looks downright nasty tomorrow. Only thing that could save the day is the morning storm mode. I will be glued to the laptop after 12pm tomorrow, expecting a lot of crazy footage. Prayers for all in the path.
 
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