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Severe POSS SEVERE WEATHER STARTING 05-17-2019 and BEYOND

Monday’s threat ain’t no joke in the central plains, I’ve never seen a STP at 17, CIN or fixed, or a SCP that high, that’s insane amounts of low level shear, good streamwise vorticity if a storm was to ingest it in this environment, looks like a sounding you’d find in the SE with a deep moist layer combined with large low level instability with low LCLs + high PWAT, supportive of high precipitation supercells with ground scraping mesocyclones/very low based, there ain’t no cap, so things would get messy, but any storm that remains discrete will have a violent tornado threat, this is a sounding from hell D34E65AE-74A5-4A72-85D2-8D3DBC7B128D.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Monday’s threat ain’t no joke in the central plains, I’ve never seen a STP at 17, CIN or fixed, or a SCP that high, that’s insane amounts of low level shear, good streamwise vorticity if a storm was to ingest it in this environment, looks like a sounding you’d find in the SE with a deep moist layer combined with large low level instability with low LCLs + high PWAT, supportive of high precipitation supercells with ground scraping mesocyclones/very low based, there ain’t no cap, so things would get messy, but any storm that remains discrete will have a violent tornado threat, this is a sounding from hell View attachment 19623
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MY GOD THAT IS A HELL OF A SOUNDING...
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Monday’s threat ain’t no joke in the central plains, I’ve never seen a STP at 17, CIN or fixed, or a SCP that high, that’s insane amounts of low level shear, good streamwise vorticity if a storm was to ingest it in this environment, looks like a sounding you’d find in the SE with a deep moist layer combined with large low level instability with low LCLs + high PWAT, supportive of high precipitation supercells with ground scraping mesocyclones/very low based, there ain’t no cap, so things would get messy, but any storm that remains discrete will have a violent tornado threat, this is a sounding from hell View attachment 19623
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Already a moderate risk area outlined 3 days in advance. Screenshot_20190518-074705_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
As if the tornadoes aren't enough, there was an earthquake in Kansas and Oklahoma yesterday.
 
Theres a actually a decent chance for a significant tornado today over Arkansas and Northeast TX. There is An ongoing line of severe storms over parts of TX and AR day1probotlk_2000_torn.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
Im chasing on Monday and I'm very stoked to see what this setup has to offer. Plan to leave from Houston late tomorrow evening and get to the TX panhandle during the morning in time for what could be a legit first round of storms as early as near sunrise
Click to expand...
ANY WAY YOU GOING TO BE ABLE TO STREAM ANYTHING?
 
Personally think somewhere in/around or between Lubbock and Midland-Odessa near the dry line may be the best play here if you want a beautiful, discrete supercell on Monday, further north storm mode could be an issue with large-scale forcing being driven in part by WAA.
 
A legit round of supercells is becoming probable-likely around dawn over the TX panhandle region and western Oklahoma. These storms will be driven by isentropic upglide, warm advection, and low-level moisture convergence on the leading edge of this surge of warm, moist air from the western Gulf. These lifting mechanisms leading to this early round of activity are very analogous to what we see w/ overrunning events in the wintertime in the SE US except now you'll get to see what happens when we start with a very warm, moist late spring/early summer boundary layer.

Note how the isentropes slope upwards over 100 hPa across western TX tomorrow morning. This is effectively what isentropic upglide looks like in a cross-section. (For those less familiar the isentropes here are solid black lines which are areas of equivalent potential temperature (temperature when you account for adiabatic processes related to rising or sinking air which can cool or warm a column respectively)).

You can also clearly see how the atmosphere is strongly capped except near western TX w/ warmer, dry air around 600-700 hpa overlying a very warm, moist boundary layer.

hrrr_Relative_Humidity_Surface_12_021_33942341_cross_weathernerds.png

nam3km_temp_adv_fgen_850_scus_21.png


Here's surface based CAPE for the same time. These storms will become surface-based the longer they persist into the morning.

hrrr_2019-05-19-12Z_024_36.832_252.852_25.905_266.628_CAPE_Surface_highways_cities.png







hrrr_2019-05-19-12Z_024_36.832_252.852_25.905_266.628_Simulated_Reflectivity_Reflectivity_high...png
 
NWS Lubbock:
"With ongoing warm advection through the day, atmosphere should
recover fairly fast if any storms fire early and early storms may
actually help enhance the risk for more discrete convection later
in the day by increasing the cap a bit allowing the lower
atmosphere to recover. Next issue is when a second round of
convection develops which the CAMs are showing to happen between
19-21Z west of I-27. These storms rapidly intensify and should
quickly start rotating with the deep layer and directional shear
with storms being able to tap into surface parcels. Sounding
analogs are showing the potential for very large hail up to 5
inches in some cases and a few analogs for significant tornadoes
are also showing up in model forecast soundings. Again the
question will be if storms remain discrete or if they will start
to form a line. Discrete storms will increase the threat for very
large hail and tornadoes while a convective line may reduce the
threat somewhat but remaining non-zero."
 
HRRR looks downright nasty tomorrow. Only thing that could save the day is the morning storm mode. I will be glued to the laptop after 12pm tomorrow, expecting a lot of crazy footage. Prayers for all in the path.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Latest HREF.

View attachment 19647
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Those storms are eating pure streamwise vorticity tommorow for dinner in SW OK/TX, trying to find anything that could go wrong, but looks like everything is set, really really hope if any wedge forms it’s out in the middle of nowhere, back to looking at this setup after being at topsail island today
 
What do yall think the prime window for storms to pop? I gotta work tomorrow unfortunately or I'd be watching things.
 
FROM NWS LUB

MONDAY AFTERNOON...BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS PROJECTED TO
SHARPEN AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN SE CO AS A WARM FRONT SETTLES NORTH OF
AMAS CWA. THIS WILL PLACE OUR CWA IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR EAST OF
THE DRYLINE WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60F IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY DESTABILIZE WITH MUCAPE
VALUES INCREASING INTO THE 3000 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ~60 KTS, STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AND NEAR
SURFACE STEEP LAPSE RATES OF CLOSE TO 8C/KM WILL PRODUCE AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS ALONG WITH GIANT HAIL,
AND DAMAGING WINDS. PWS OVER AN INCH ALSO MEANS THAT FLOODING COULD
BE AN ISSUE. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES EHI AND BRN SHEAR VALUES
WILL INCREASE AS LCLS LOWER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF AN ENVIRONMENT
WITH THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE TORNADOES. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES
CONTINUES TO SURROUND EXACTLY WHERE STORMS WILL INITIATE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WHERE AND WHEN STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY WILL
TAKE ALMOST NO TIME TO BECOME SEVERE.

LATE MONDAY EVENING...THE MAIN LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
START TO BE REALIZED OVER THE CWA WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LLJ WILL
MAKE A RESURGENCE. AS THIS OCCURS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND QUICKLY BECOME LINEAR IN MODE. AS A RESULT
HAZARDS THAT TYPICALLY ACCOMPANY QLCS ENVIRONMENTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. THIS INCLUDES STRONG WIND GUSTS AND EMBEDDED TORNADOES.
 
Hrrr is pretty much copy and paste of the super outbreak in the SE back in 2011, only in the plains, warm front close by aiding in strong low level shear and strong changes of wind at the lowest 1km AGL, bout to see more when soundings come back C1A3900D-C3FD-4490-AF7E-41857C7B6815.jpeg
 
I hate to say this, I really do, but I think there’s going to be a EF-5 tornado tommorow, it’s been a big minute
 
These soundings are somewhat contaminated in OK, but they suggest monster classic-HP supercells with ground scraping mesocyclones as LCLs are literally touching the ground, large amounts of moisture at lower levels, high PWATs, large 3CAPE, impressive thermodynamics, then impressive wind energy and change in wind direction at lower levels, especially with the first sounding, these soundings support destructive tornadoes, this gives me a Phil Campbell-hackleburg tornado vibe B95AE539-9D4B-4061-A775-791FB2923625.png99FD1663-9AAF-480F-9490-70379EA250D2.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
CAMs shows the threat for big flooding in around OKC aswell
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FROM THE NWS NORMAN OK

IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT, LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING (AS NOTED EARLIER). FOR
SOME LOCATIONS, THERE COULD BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS. IF THESE TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS HAPPEN TO BE IN AN
URBAN AREA (I.E., THE OKC METRO), THE FLOODING COULD BE QUITE
SUBSTANTIAL. IN ADDITION, PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND/OR
ALONG THE WARM FRONT MAY ALSO RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL FLOODING IN
THESE AREAS. THIS IS A RISK THAT SHOULDN'T BE TAKEN LIGHTLY. A
FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS RISK.
 
Mesoscale Discussion 0696
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019


Capture.JPG
Areas affected...eastern NM and portions of the OK/TX Panhandles
into western TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 200456Z - 200700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop by 1-3 am CDT. Large
hail will be the main concern with activity through early morning. A
watch will likely be needed in the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Strong southeasterly flow through around 1 km continues
to bring rich Gulf moisture northwest across TX into eastern NM late
this evening. Dewpoints have increased 8 to 16 degrees in the last 3
hours from the Davis Mountain region in western TX into southeastern
NM as evidence of this strong moisture surge. Regional 00z RAOBs
from CRP and DRT showed surface dewpoints of 80 and 69 F
respectively. As such, deeper boundary layer moisture is expected to
overspread much of western TX and into far eastern NM overnight. A
resulting surge in instability will accompany the moisture return
and MLCAPE values around 500 J/kg were already shifting northwest
into southeast NM. As this trend continues the next few hours,
modest forcing along a surface dryline and subtle impulses ejecting
from eastward progressing upper trough over the western Great Basin
should trigger convective initiation in the 06-08z time frame. Water
vapor and IR satellite imagery indicate a subtle wave is spreading
northeast across southern AZ and northern Mexico as of 0430z with
increasing cloud cover and cooling cloud temps noted in addition to
more agitated cloud features over southeast NM into far west TX.

This initial activity will likely be elevated given the cool
boundary layer. However, impressive effective shear of 60+ kt with
large, curved hodographs will support rotating/supercell structures.
Hail will be the main concern with this activity overnight, though a
40-50 kt south/southwesterly low level jet could result in upscale
growth into a squall line or bowing segments. Given surface
inhibition, the wind and tornado threat should remain limited until
after sunrise. A watch will likely be needed for portions of the MCD
area by around 06-07z.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 33080403 34960410 35710420 36220395 36580355 36870265
36880202 36740147 36220095 35420082 34240128 33110180
32310249 32150294 32080338 32480392 33080403
 
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