Z
Zander98al
Guest
Think a high risk will be issued tommrow?
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Severe POSS SEVERE WEATHER STARTING 05-17-2019 and BEYOND
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
PRETTY NASTY MAX UPDRAFTS
INSANE NUMBERS ON THE SUPERCELL COMPOSITE MODEL (HRRR)
INSANE NUMBERS ON THE SUPERCELL COMPOSITE MODEL (HRRR)
Snowflowxxl
Member
Yes
Those storms are eating pure streamwise vorticity tommorow for dinner in SW OK/TX, trying to find anything that could go wrong, but looks like everything is set, really really hope if any wedge forms it’s out in the middle of nowhere, back to looking at this setup after being at topsail island today
Snowflowxxl
Member
0z HRRR is VIOLENT. Tomorrow is going to be down right scary and a nightmare for some folks.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
What do yall think the prime window for storms to pop? I gotta work tomorrow unfortunately or I'd be watching things.
FROM NWS LUB
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS PROJECTED TO
SHARPEN AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN SE CO AS A WARM FRONT SETTLES NORTH OF
AMAS CWA. THIS WILL PLACE OUR CWA IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR EAST OF
THE DRYLINE WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60F IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY DESTABILIZE WITH MUCAPE
VALUES INCREASING INTO THE 3000 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ~60 KTS, STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AND NEAR
SURFACE STEEP LAPSE RATES OF CLOSE TO 8C/KM WILL PRODUCE AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS ALONG WITH GIANT HAIL,
AND DAMAGING WINDS. PWS OVER AN INCH ALSO MEANS THAT FLOODING COULD
BE AN ISSUE. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES EHI AND BRN SHEAR VALUES
WILL INCREASE AS LCLS LOWER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF AN ENVIRONMENT
WITH THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE TORNADOES. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES
CONTINUES TO SURROUND EXACTLY WHERE STORMS WILL INITIATE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WHERE AND WHEN STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY WILL
TAKE ALMOST NO TIME TO BECOME SEVERE.
LATE MONDAY EVENING...THE MAIN LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
START TO BE REALIZED OVER THE CWA WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LLJ WILL
MAKE A RESURGENCE. AS THIS OCCURS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND QUICKLY BECOME LINEAR IN MODE. AS A RESULT
HAZARDS THAT TYPICALLY ACCOMPANY QLCS ENVIRONMENTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. THIS INCLUDES STRONG WIND GUSTS AND EMBEDDED TORNADOES.
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS PROJECTED TO
SHARPEN AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN SE CO AS A WARM FRONT SETTLES NORTH OF
AMAS CWA. THIS WILL PLACE OUR CWA IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR EAST OF
THE DRYLINE WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60F IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY DESTABILIZE WITH MUCAPE
VALUES INCREASING INTO THE 3000 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ~60 KTS, STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AND NEAR
SURFACE STEEP LAPSE RATES OF CLOSE TO 8C/KM WILL PRODUCE AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS ALONG WITH GIANT HAIL,
AND DAMAGING WINDS. PWS OVER AN INCH ALSO MEANS THAT FLOODING COULD
BE AN ISSUE. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES EHI AND BRN SHEAR VALUES
WILL INCREASE AS LCLS LOWER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF AN ENVIRONMENT
WITH THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE TORNADOES. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES
CONTINUES TO SURROUND EXACTLY WHERE STORMS WILL INITIATE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WHERE AND WHEN STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY WILL
TAKE ALMOST NO TIME TO BECOME SEVERE.
LATE MONDAY EVENING...THE MAIN LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
START TO BE REALIZED OVER THE CWA WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LLJ WILL
MAKE A RESURGENCE. AS THIS OCCURS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND QUICKLY BECOME LINEAR IN MODE. AS A RESULT
HAZARDS THAT TYPICALLY ACCOMPANY QLCS ENVIRONMENTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. THIS INCLUDES STRONG WIND GUSTS AND EMBEDDED TORNADOES.
Hrrr is pretty much copy and paste of the super outbreak in the SE back in 2011, only in the plains, warm front close by aiding in strong low level shear and strong changes of wind at the lowest 1km AGL, bout to see more when soundings come back 
I hate to say this, I really do, but I think there’s going to be a EF-5 tornado tommorow, it’s been a big minute
Got family east if OKC..looks like a rough day?
Definitely, but SE OKC/southern central Oklahoma looks to be in for a more rough day, looks to be one of the busiest days in a long time, that’s fashoo
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These soundings are somewhat contaminated in OK, but they suggest monster classic-HP supercells with ground scraping mesocyclones as LCLs are literally touching the ground, large amounts of moisture at lower levels, high PWATs, large 3CAPE, impressive thermodynamics, then impressive wind energy and change in wind direction at lower levels, especially with the first sounding, these soundings support destructive tornadoes, this gives me a Phil Campbell-hackleburg tornado vibe 
THIS DOES NOT LOOK GOOD
CAMs shows the threat for big flooding in around OKC aswell
FROM THE NWS NORMAN OK
IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT, LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING (AS NOTED EARLIER). FOR
SOME LOCATIONS, THERE COULD BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS. IF THESE TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS HAPPEN TO BE IN AN
URBAN AREA (I.E., THE OKC METRO), THE FLOODING COULD BE QUITE
SUBSTANTIAL. IN ADDITION, PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND/OR
ALONG THE WARM FRONT MAY ALSO RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL FLOODING IN
THESE AREAS. THIS IS A RISK THAT SHOULDN'T BE TAKEN LIGHTLY. A
FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS RISK.
Brent
Member
Sounds like a high risk is coming
Watch the person who releases the discussion be broyles
Mesoscale Discussion 0696
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019
Areas affected...eastern NM and portions of the OK/TX Panhandles
into western TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 200456Z - 200700Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop by 1-3 am CDT. Large
hail will be the main concern with activity through early morning. A
watch will likely be needed in the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...Strong southeasterly flow through around 1 km continues
to bring rich Gulf moisture northwest across TX into eastern NM late
this evening. Dewpoints have increased 8 to 16 degrees in the last 3
hours from the Davis Mountain region in western TX into southeastern
NM as evidence of this strong moisture surge. Regional 00z RAOBs
from CRP and DRT showed surface dewpoints of 80 and 69 F
respectively. As such, deeper boundary layer moisture is expected to
overspread much of western TX and into far eastern NM overnight. A
resulting surge in instability will accompany the moisture return
and MLCAPE values around 500 J/kg were already shifting northwest
into southeast NM. As this trend continues the next few hours,
modest forcing along a surface dryline and subtle impulses ejecting
from eastward progressing upper trough over the western Great Basin
should trigger convective initiation in the 06-08z time frame. Water
vapor and IR satellite imagery indicate a subtle wave is spreading
northeast across southern AZ and northern Mexico as of 0430z with
increasing cloud cover and cooling cloud temps noted in addition to
more agitated cloud features over southeast NM into far west TX.
This initial activity will likely be elevated given the cool
boundary layer. However, impressive effective shear of 60+ kt with
large, curved hodographs will support rotating/supercell structures.
Hail will be the main concern with this activity overnight, though a
40-50 kt south/southwesterly low level jet could result in upscale
growth into a squall line or bowing segments. Given surface
inhibition, the wind and tornado threat should remain limited until
after sunrise. A watch will likely be needed for portions of the MCD
area by around 06-07z.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/20/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 33080403 34960410 35710420 36220395 36580355 36870265
36880202 36740147 36220095 35420082 34240128 33110180
32310249 32150294 32080338 32480392 33080403
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019
Areas affected...eastern NM and portions of the OK/TX Panhandles
into western TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 200456Z - 200700Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop by 1-3 am CDT. Large
hail will be the main concern with activity through early morning. A
watch will likely be needed in the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...Strong southeasterly flow through around 1 km continues
to bring rich Gulf moisture northwest across TX into eastern NM late
this evening. Dewpoints have increased 8 to 16 degrees in the last 3
hours from the Davis Mountain region in western TX into southeastern
NM as evidence of this strong moisture surge. Regional 00z RAOBs
from CRP and DRT showed surface dewpoints of 80 and 69 F
respectively. As such, deeper boundary layer moisture is expected to
overspread much of western TX and into far eastern NM overnight. A
resulting surge in instability will accompany the moisture return
and MLCAPE values around 500 J/kg were already shifting northwest
into southeast NM. As this trend continues the next few hours,
modest forcing along a surface dryline and subtle impulses ejecting
from eastward progressing upper trough over the western Great Basin
should trigger convective initiation in the 06-08z time frame. Water
vapor and IR satellite imagery indicate a subtle wave is spreading
northeast across southern AZ and northern Mexico as of 0430z with
increasing cloud cover and cooling cloud temps noted in addition to
more agitated cloud features over southeast NM into far west TX.
This initial activity will likely be elevated given the cool
boundary layer. However, impressive effective shear of 60+ kt with
large, curved hodographs will support rotating/supercell structures.
Hail will be the main concern with this activity overnight, though a
40-50 kt south/southwesterly low level jet could result in upscale
growth into a squall line or bowing segments. Given surface
inhibition, the wind and tornado threat should remain limited until
after sunrise. A watch will likely be needed for portions of the MCD
area by around 06-07z.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/20/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 33080403 34960410 35710420 36220395 36580355 36870265
36880202 36740147 36220095 35420082 34240128 33110180
32310249 32150294 32080338 32480392 33080403
Brent
Member
lol
apparently someone leaked it from NWS chat with a picture of their monitor
we'll find out soon enough
WHAT OFFICE IS HE WITH?lol
apparently someone leaked it from NWS chat with a picture of their monitor
we'll find out soon enough