Political Thread

[Downeastnc]

The NYT poll of voters in key battleground states points to a likely Trump victory IMO. When a NYT poll only has Biden leading Trump by 2 to 3% in these states with Trump beating the rest of the field, it isn't good for those who want Trump gone.

Trumps problem is he needs to not lose NC/FL/OH and he has to win either PA or MI again....if everything else stays the same and he loses WI/PA/MI ( which he won by a combined 70k votes in 2016) then he loses. Basically out of FL/OH/NC/WI/PA/MI he can only lose 2 of them and still win....and that's without losing any other states.....

The latest Fox news poll has him getting hammered by Biden nationally......Biden's average lead in most purple states is 4-6 pts, most of those states went to Trump so that's significant....

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-49-percent-favor-impeaching-trump

 

[GaWx]

The NYT poll of voters in key battleground states points to a likely Trump victory IMO. When a NYT poll only has Biden leading Trump by 2 to 3% in these states with Trump beating the rest of the field, it isn't good for those who want Trump gone.

Yeah, I was watching CNN and they’re clearly concerned about what these NYTimes battleground state polls are showing. Of course, Fox News this evening was ecstatic. This imo in itself cannot be considered good news for Dems. Is this a reflection on far left candidates like Warren getting more attention and support and thus causing swing voters to get spooked from supporting the Dems, especially with the economy and stock markets so strong?

 

[Downeastnc]

Yeah, I was watching CNN and they’re clearly concerned about what these NYTimes battleground state polls are showing. Of course, Fox News this evening was ecstatic. This imo in itself cannot be considered good news for Dems. Is this a reflection on far left candidates like Warren getting more attention and support and thus causing swing voters to get spooked from supporting the Dems, especially with the economy and stock markets so strong?

Here is Fox's latest poll with Trump versus the Dem front runners...and Hillary just to piss Donald off even more.....

 

[GaWx]

Here is Fox's latest poll with Trump versus the Dem front runners...and Hillary just to piss Donald off even more.....
View attachment 25422

I can believe Biden v Trump and still think he's the best shot to beat Trump but far lefties/socialists Bernie 49-41 and Warren 46-41? I find those very hard to believe.

 

[Downeastnc]

I can believe Biden v Trump and still think he's the best shot to beat Trump but far lefties/socialists Bernie 49-41 and Warren 46-41? I find those very hard to believe.

Sure I mean all of these would close up down the stretch, that said Trump supporters are underestimating just how much people are tired of Trump's crap. Ironically Warren and Sanders and the entire progressive wing ( AOC etc ) probably would not have much of a chance without Trump. Trump is firing up the Dem base and creating a situation that I don't think exist if a more moderate GOP candidate was president or running instead of Trump. The Dems would have to run to the center to beat that person, however they know whoever wins the Dem nominee will get a lot of support this time around just to get rid of Trump they will take ANYONE.......and its emboldened the progressives to try and force Warren or Sanders to the top.

I do agree 100% though that Warren or Sanders would be a toss up and one of them 2 is the only real chance Trump has at winning, Biden will destroy him.

 

[Metwannabe]

What amazes me is how much stock people put in polls, how soon we forget.

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[Downeastnc]

What amazes me is how much stock people put in polls, how soon we forget.

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Polls did a good job in 2016 contrary to what most people think, most had Hillary and Trump within the MOE the last month or so......Hillary was a 2 pt favorite on election day with a 4pt margin of error.....so it was a wash.

 

[Metwannabe]

Polls did a good job in 2016 contrary to what most people think, most had Hillary and Trump within the MOE the last month or so......Hillary was a 2 pt favorite on election day with a 4pt margin of error.....so it was a wash.

https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/23/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/index.html

https://www.thewrap.com/every-poll-that-got-election-wrong-donald-trump/

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/why-2016-election-polls-missed-their-mark/

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[ForsythSnow]

https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/23/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/index.html

https://www.thewrap.com/every-poll-that-got-election-wrong-donald-trump/

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/why-2016-election-polls-missed-their-mark/

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A chunk of those fall outside the MOE, but a lot of them are inside that MOE, and since the media was so biased toward a Clinton win, because they all wanted it, they chose their winner and acted like she would win even though statistically it was risky, then they decided it would be a good idea to act like being in the MOE wasn't being in that, but was a deadset number. I'm also sure the MOE changes between pollsters.

 

[Arcc]

Trumps problem is he needs to not lose NC/FL/OH and he has to win either PA or MI again....if everything else stays the same and he loses WI/PA/MI ( which he won by a combined 70k votes in 2016) then he loses. Basically out of FL/OH/NC/WI/PA/MI he can only lose 2 of them and still win....and that's without losing any other states.....

The latest Fox news poll has him getting hammered by Biden nationally......Biden's average lead in most purple states is 4-6 pts, most of those states went to Trump so that's significant....

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-49-percent-favor-impeaching-trump

Here is Fox's latest poll with Trump versus the Dem front runners...and Hillary just to piss Donald off even more.....
View attachment 25422

I don't know, I think Fox is much more likely to try to charge up Trump voters. There is a big disconnect somewhere as the liberal NYT only have Biden by 2-3%.

 

[Downeastnc]

A chunk of those fall outside the MOE, but a lot of them are inside that MOE, and since the media was so biased toward a Clinton win, because they all wanted it, they chose their winner and acted like she would win even though statistically it was risky, then they decided it would be a good idea to act like being in the MOE wasn't being in that, but was a deadset number. I'm also sure the MOE changes between pollsters.

Yeah here is a spread of the last polls on 2016 the RCP average the day of the election was Clinton +2.1

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

 

[Metwannabe]

A chunk of those fall outside the MOE, but a lot of them are inside that MOE, and since the media was so biased toward a Clinton win, because they all wanted it, they chose their winner and acted like she would win even though statistically it was risky, then they decided it would be a good idea to act like being in the MOE wasn't being in that, but was a deadset number. I'm also sure the MOE changes between pollsters.

Also a chunk of those were the weeks leading up to election, a few the day of, many earlier on had Clinton with double digit leads and in fact I recall comments like "Clinton is going to mop the floor with Trump", "landslide", etc. Heck I voted for Trump but didn't stay up to watch the results because I had already conceded to a Clinton win and I had a job, life would carry on as normal.

With that said my point is this - polls aren't that reliable at any time especially a year out, drawing conclusions on either side 12 months from election day is just premature.

 

[Metwannabe]

Yeah here is a spread of the last polls on 2016 the RCP average the day of the election was Clinton +2.1

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

So for a valid comparison we need to wait until election day 2020 to see what the polls show. We still have 12 months to go and trust me anything can and will happen.

 

[Metwannabe]

I have a serious question for anyone but especially @Rain Cold @ForsythSnow @GaWx because they mentioned compromise and working together on numerous occasions.

I'm curious, what policies and/or issues do you think there should be compromise and what should each side give up to make a true bipartisan effort?

 

[crecre9]

My facts are just as good as your facts! Here's a fact for ya-Democrats will never be power again or for a very long time. The whole reason for everything this country has been put through (Russia hoax and all the rest of the hoax's) is to cover up for the ILLEGAL spying on Trump, his campaign, judges, media and you and me if they needed to...AND DOING IT WITH THE HELP OF OTHER COUNTRIES! ***TREASON***. James Comey, James Clapper, John Brennan and whole bunch more are going to be prosecuted. Right up to Hillary and Obama. The COVERUP is what's gona gettem". Your ok with a complete fabricated fake dossier? The swamp mafia is DEEEEEP. That's it in a nutshell. The dems/media will stop at nothing to keep you from knowing this. It's not going to work. Dislike Trump as you will. I despise Obama (he was a jive talkin' turkey) and KNOW his intentions were not for the American people but I/normal people NEVER treated the office the way people are now. This is not a friggin 3rd world country. You and every person in America living nice and comfortable and free should be happy the swamp is being drained. It's not rocket science. Use the brain, let the common sense shine through and look around. Know that fake news is part of (the hide the truth from you because they are afraid), Pay attention and pop the corn because it is happening. Power is going to be restored to the to people. Trump is the only one with balls to try. Corrupt dems and wussy repubs are doing ZERO for us. Why be so down on Trump for being a savvy business man? We should be more concerned of why DC public servants are worth millions. They make less than 200k a year. Millions? Now that should be the top concern....Right after the huge goal of busting up human trafficking and PEDOPHILIA rings. Trump knew all the nasty dirt and what all the corrupt has done from the very beginning. He has a smile on his face. Enjoy the show

I thought this might be a troll account, but I know realize I was wrong. Just a sadly misinformed citizen given to being taken by conspiracy theories.

 

[Arcc]

So for a valid comparison we need to wait until election day 2020 to see what the polls show. We still have 12 months to go and trust me anything can and will happen.

Let’s look at the truth of this statement.

Yup.

 

[crecre9]

It's all fake. The polls are fake, the porn stars are fake, Trump University was fake, access Hollywood was fake, Hillary getting more votes was fake, but one of thing that's real is there are very few people who still support Trump that will ever turn on him.

I think so many of supporters would continue their support despite any crime. He wasn't lying about shooting someone on fifth avenue and getting away with it. His supporters would like it and vote for him.

 

[Shaggy]

I think so many of supporters would continue their support despite any crime. He wasn't lying about shooting someone on fifth avenue and getting away with it. His supporters would like it and vote for him.

What's scarier is he is actually arguing that if he did shoot someone on 5th avenue he shouldnt even be investigated for it while in office.

 

[crecre9]

What's scarier is he is actually arguing that if he did shoot someone on 5th avenue he shouldnt even be investigated for it while in office.

Quite true. And don't forget, if you don't also believe the president should be able to commit any crimes and not be held accountable, you are somehow not a patriot.

 

[GaWx]

I have a serious question for anyone but especially @Rain Cold @ForsythSnow @GaWx because they mentioned compromise and working together on numerous occasions.

I'm curious, what policies and/or issues do you think there should be compromise and what should each side give up to make a true bipartisan effort?

I don’t have any specifics to suggest but rather I just want to see a general desire for more compromise/working with the other side than what we have now as I think it would be better for our country’s unity. Let them figure it out. Back in the 1990s, Gingrich and Clinton worked together well. Also, as I recall, even the NE liberal Tip O’Neill and Cali conservative Reagan (my favorite Potus of my lifetime) worked together and actually were friends despite their major differences on issues. Why can’t we have more of that now? Nobody can have their own way on everything. A unified country doesn’t work that way. Now about all we have are extremes on both sides and few moderates/compromisers.