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Wintry Palm Sunday NC and VA Winter Storm

NWS has less than 1/2" for the triad. Seems this could be a bit low. I think Webber's map is more realistic. Would love to get down to 31 or so tonight.
TW
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Not sure how asking for event obs is banter but ok. Maybe take the wishcasting and model nit picking to banter also if you want to be a prick about it..Good luck with your snow
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I sure am enjoying the warm sunshine and sunny skies now!! Mega CAD in full effect!!
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Not sure how asking for event obs is banter but ok. Maybe take the wishcasting and model nit picking to banter also if you want to be a prick about it..Good luck with your snow
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Yeah I guess showing where, when, and why some of the models are off by several degrees near initialization is just mere nit picking, maybe you can explain that to the NWS in Raleigh so they can remove the winter weather advisories they just added east of the Triad because we’re running cooler than forecast.
 
Webberweather53 said:
You know very well you weren’t just merely asking for observations when u asked brick if he had 2 inches of snow already when little-no snow had been reported SE of I 85 and most of us in the Triangle have persistently been reporting cold rain. Take your condescending negative attitude to americanwx.
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Been at the golf course since 8am. Literally have not checked radar all day. In fact I just checked it and I’m glad I did. If I only went by what I’ve read in this thread I would think RAL was about to get a foot snow. Thanks for all your help
 
RDU still hanging around 37 with a dewpoint of 36, we’ve wet bulbed as much as we can and now we’ll rely on losing some insolation after dark, melting snowflakes aloft with heavier precipitation rates and low level CAA underneath this in situ CAD to push us down a few more degrees to about 32-34F where we generally need to be to get either sleet/rain, sleet, sleet/snow, or wet snow.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Since the daycare needs reminding, keep the Brick posts out and let's also try and get along. Yes, I'm like some members here frustrated that NC is seeing snow again and we arent, but let's be adults here. Thanks.
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I was kidding with the last post, but I’ll try again. There is sleet mixed in with the rain in Cary.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Sleet rain mix here near Cary and NC States campus. We hit our Trace of snow and sleet
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Does the fact that we’re seeing that now portend anything or tell you anything about later on? I was under the impression (maybe mistakenly so) that any frozen precip would occur later tonight.
 
Rain Cold said:
Does the fact that we’re seeing that now portend anything or tell you anything about later on? I was under the impression (maybe mistakenly so) that any frozen precip would occur later tonight.
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I'm not sure we can pull this one off this far south. We are going to need some heavy precip to erode the warm layer. I wish I was still in knightdale for this one. Bricks backyard looks good imo

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NWS looks to be a bit better based on the way things are looking.
StormTotalSnowWeb1.png
 
I'm certainly not expecting these amounts but the HRRR is a vast improvement..... just enough to real me back in, not that it takes much lol

snku_acc.us_ma.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Does the fact that we’re seeing that now portend anything or tell you anything about later on? I was under the impression (maybe mistakenly so) that any frozen precip would occur later tonight.
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It tells me that the column has to be very cold aloft for us to have any wintry precipitation atm and reaffirms the fact that as the rates increase with the banding later tonight the chances for snow/sleet increase substantially. Anyone in the pink area on my map i posted earlier imo has a “legitimate” shot of seeing at least one or a few quick bursts of heavy wet snow and/or sleet that could accumulate up to an inch or so mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces however small that chance may be. Areas as far south as Lillington, Sanford, Smithfield, Wilson, and Greenville could get involved. I was banking on favorable adjustments to happen because I kept watching the 3km NAM and HRRR verify near or warmer than forecast due in large part to the fact they didn’t handle the first bout of precipitation correctly at all. Isentropic upglide, like we often see time and time again in overrunning events in the heart of winter and what we’re seeing now is usually poorly forecast by the models (likely because they don’t have sufficient vertical resolution) and the precipitation on the downwind side (typically to the north) is underdone. Also seeing what happened a few weeks ago to the HRRR and other CAMs when they mishandled the southeastern extent of the snowfall that fell all the way to the coast instead of staying near and NW Raleigh gave me enough confidence to mention the potential even in Harnett, Lee, & Johnston counties.
 
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