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Wintry Palm Sunday NC and VA Winter Storm

Wasn’t expecting the radar to look so anemic to our west in the triad. Looks like heaviest bands will be to our north.
 
SD said:
I'm not sure we can pull this one off this far south. We are going to need some heavy precip to erode the warm layer. I wish I was still in knightdale for this one. Bricks backyard looks good imo

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Just waiting.

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SD said:
I'm not sure we can pull this one off this far south. We are going to need some heavy precip to erode the warm layer. I wish I was still in knightdale for this one. Bricks backyard looks good imo

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Yeah, you, RC, and I are all in the same boat.:) It's going to be a close one for us but hey, when is it not?
 
Webberweather53 said:
It tells me that the column has to be very cold aloft for us to have any wintry precipitation atm and reaffirms the fact that as the rates increase with the banding later tonight the chances for snow/sleet increase substantially. Anyone in the pink area on my map i posted earlier imo has a “legitimate” shot of seeing at least one or a few quick bursts of heavy wet snow and/or sleet that could accumulate up to an inch or so mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces however small that chance may be. Areas as far south as Lillington, Sanford, Smithfield, Wilson, and Greenville could get involved. I was banking on favorable adjustments to happen because I kept watching the 3km NAM and HRRR verify near or warmer than forecast due in large part to the fact they didn’t handle the first bout of precipitation correctly at all. Isentropic upglide, like we often see time and time again in overrunning events in the heart of winter and what we’re seeing now is usually poorly forecast by the models (likely because they don’t have sufficient vertical resolution) and the precipitation on the downwind side (typically to the north) is underdone. Also seeing what happened a few weeks ago to the HRRR and other CAMs when they mishandled the southeastern extent of the snowfall that fell all the way to the coast instead of staying near and NW Raleigh gave me enough confidence to mention the potential even in Harnett, Lee, & Johnston counties.
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Awesome. Thanks very much!
 
I'm in the lower 40s now without precip. I'm sure once it starts it'll drop even more and maybe I'll see some sleet/wet snow mixing in.
 
According to TWC the temp and dew points at my zip code are 38/34, so wet bulbing alone could be what it takes.
 
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