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Wintry Palm Sunday NC and VA Winter Storm

pcbjr said:
FS - Good luck on something good!
Best!
Phil
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Only if there is enough moisture would that be possilbe. I'm more interested in the wedge arrival later today. Models are showing a huge drop. It may not be as big since we didn't get as high and it's starting to move in earlier it seems as well. Maybe we will go lower though in return.
 
Had A lot of white rain at the house. In Winston Salem now and its sleeting pretty good, flakes starting to mix in. Kid up in Boone says he's got about 4 so far.
 
I'm beating a dead horse here...
18z 3km NAM vs current surface observations in central NC. It's pretty close overall, it's just a tick too warm yet again, if anything especially west of the Triangle where it's been snowing/sleeting for a while. The 3km NAM's depiction of the precipitation right now over central NC is not even close to reality which explains why it's likely a little too warm in areas that just had some precipitation. The heavier the precipitation is now, the more melting we receive aloft which cools the column closer to freezing making it more supportive of snow/sleet later.

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Webberweather53 said:
Here's my final snow/sleet accumulation map really tough forecast especially around the Triad but I think legitimate snow and sleet accumulations could occur along/NW of I-85 and the potential for any accumulation could extend as far south as Sanford, Lillington, and Smithfield although I don't think it's necessarily likely there. A good conservative, middle of the road scenario for Raleigh would be a dusting of snow and/or sleet.
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Looks good!!
But it's Almost stopped here and have switched over to lgt sleet and snow mix. Had a good coating started and it's quit 32.9 Looks like the steady precip has pushed just to my north... I think if it starts back to snowing like it was before the steady precip inched north of me, I think I could reach your totals easy. if it develops to a steady snow tonight? I think I could dropped to 31-31 after dark with heavy precip? That's a big if though? What do you think on the precip spotty or steady tonight? Thanks for sharing all your insight with us!!!
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Looks good!!
But it's Almost stopped here and have switched over to lgt sleet and snow mix. Had a good coating started and it's quit 32.9 Looks like the steady precip has pushed just to my north... I think if it starts back to snowing like it was before the steady precip inched north of me, I think I could reach your totals easy. if it develops to a steady snow tonight? I think I could dropped to 31-31 after dark with heavy precip? That's a big if though? What do you think on the precip spotty or steady tonight? Thanks for sharing all your insight with us!!!
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Sure thing! I think the precipitation will probably be steady-heavy at times during the overnight and you'll end up somewhere in the vicinity of 3-6". You're right on the southwestern fringe of the more legitimate precipitation rates and will have to contend w/ downsloping to an extent which could make this a little more muddled, but like I said yesterday if you get caught underneath the large-scale deformation zone you're gonna be in it for a while because the storm's motion vector is more or less generally parallel to the axis of frontogenetical forcing.
 
The HRRR is not even close on temps right now in most areas from the Triangle and points NW. Temps are already in the mid 30s over the Triad and it had 40-42, it's ~41F in Charlotte and it forecasted 48F. This is just another reminder that NWP can't handle gentle isentropic upglide over a low-mid level cold dome.
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Well, the precip is here and 39 now. Hope the models end up busting since they are already too warm like Webber pointed out.
 
SimeonNC said:
Everything seems to be developing just to the east of me, hopefully it'll all fill in as the night goes on.
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Given this setup, it may be a matter of a mile, or even a few yards, but from Your Curmudgeon at the far Southern Outpost ... Good luck to all up there for a winner ... ;)
 
Webberweather53 said:
The HRRR is not even close on temps right now in most areas from the Triangle and points NW. Temps are already in the mid 30s over the Triad and it had 40-42, it's ~41F in Charlotte and it forecasted 48F. This is just another reminder that NWP can't handle gentle isentropic upglide over a low-mid level cold dome.
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On the busty side, I’m at 60 at GSP, was only supposed to hit 50 and have only had about 24 raindrops all day and sun is out now! Horrible forecasts around here
 
Webberweather53 said:
The HRRR is not even close on temps right now in most areas from the Triangle and points NW. Temps are already in the mid 30s over the Triad and it had 40-42, it's ~41F in Charlotte and it forecasted 48F. This is just another reminder that NWP can't handle gentle isentropic upglide over a low-mid level cold dome.
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Yep you're right, it's got Mt.Airy at 39 and I'm 10 miles south of there and sitting at 32.9
 
Fancy Gap getting socked right in the mouth just like I called several days ago. Never doubt the NAM. You will lose 95% of the time
 
Webberweather53 said:
NWS is playing catch up here in central NC, just added Orange and Durham counties to the WWA, wouldn't be shocked if Randolph, Chatham, Wake, Vance, Franklin, Warren, Halifax, and Nash get added later if we keep this up
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I guess they were just looking at the model outputs and taking them verbatim instead of comparing them to the actual temps.
 
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