Wintry Palm Sunday NC and VA Winter Storm

[Brick Tamland]

Seems the local TV mets and RAH are just taking the model output verbatim, though.

 

[Tarheel1]

Sounds like wintry mix is being reported in Winston and Kernersville with temps in the mid 40s. Don’t know if that has any bearing on what happens here later.

That’s a cool rain, not cold rain! Brutal wedge here, 60 degrees! That sun angle tho

 

[Brick Tamland]

The radar derived p-type algorithms are struggling themselves atm, there's already reports of sleet and/or snow as far south as Mooresville and Concord as well as the Triad area right now w/ temps in the mid 40s.

Yeah, looks like they are just looking at the temps and showing rain as the output because it isn't 32 or lower.

 

[Webberweather53]

Seems the local TV mets and RAH are just taking the model output verbatim, though.

Yeah that's not a good idea in a situation like this, even in the last storm the p-type algorithms didn't do the R-S line justice esp for those around the Triad for a good part of the storm (esp early on)

 

[Brick Tamland]

That’s a cool rain, not cold rain! Brutal wedge here, 60 degrees! That sun angle tho

 

[Webberweather53]

Lots of sleet reports coming from the Charlotte metro area w/ temps in the mid-upper 40s. It's very cold aloft.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Lots of sleet reports coming from the Charlotte metro area w/ temps in the mid-upper 40s. It's very cold aloft.

I think if we can stay below 50 here before the precip arrives there are going to be some quick changes to the forecast.

 

[SimeonNC]

I think it's time to start ditching the models and re-focusing our attention to nowcasting, from what Webber has said it's obvious that the NWP will just keep having problems until it's too late.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Modeled p-type output is going to struggle in a setup like this

Note to everyone: Keep this in mind. Don't expect only snow or even a snowstorm. It's a dynamic system and it will be close up in most of NC. Temps may be busting here today badly.

 

[Webberweather53]

12z HREF looks worse.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Looks like the warm front is going to be fighting with the wedge a bit. Temps seem to be rising far slower in CAD areas than outside of them.

 

[Webberweather53]

12z NAM 4 hour forecast vs current 16z observations. This is not a bad forecast overall, it's a little too warm if anything in the Triangle area, Fayetteville, Wilmington, and portions of upstate SC

 

[mrdaddyman]

51.8 degrees here. No way I get accumulating snow tonight.

 

[Webberweather53]

51.8 degrees here. No way I get accumulating snow tonight.

The average temperature at this time of the year is 65-70F, we've seen accumulating snow/ice w/ temps in the 80s the day prior to (Feb 1989 for ex)

 

[Webberweather53]

RDU has officially warmed up to 50F as anticipated might squeeze out another degree or two before the clouds, virga, and/or light rain/snow to our west move in

 

[SimeonNC]

The temp has dropped two degrees since this morning.

 

[Rain Cold]

53 at the house. Clouds thickening up just in time to insulate the warmth. Timing was not particularly good.

 

[Brick Tamland]

The average temperature at this time of the year is 65-70F, we've seen accumulating snow/ice w/ temps in the 80s the day prior to (Feb 1989 for ex)

I really don't get everyone freaking out about temps.

 

[Rain Cold]

I really don't get everyone freaking out about temps.

Can you please list who is freaking out? Discussing current obs is hardly freaking out, IMO. I know you want it to snow really really bad. Many of us do. But it’s hard to understand why there’s anything wrong with being a tad realistic also. It’s certainly not something to get upset or offended about.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Can you please list who is freaking out? Discussing current obs is hardly freaking out, IMO. I know you want it to snow really really bad. Many of us do. But it’s hard to understand why there’s anything wrong with being a tad realistic also. It’s certainly not something to get upset or offended about.

Difference in just stating current obs and saying oh well, it's too warm for anything but rain now or accumulation when it is really not too warm yet.