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Wintry Palm Sunday NC and VA Winter Storm

Seems the local TV mets and RAH are just taking the model output verbatim, though.
 
Sounds like wintry mix is being reported in Winston and Kernersville with temps in the mid 40s. Don’t know if that has any bearing on what happens here later.
That’s a cool rain, not cold rain! Brutal wedge here, 60 degrees! That sun angle tho
 
The radar derived p-type algorithms are struggling themselves atm, there's already reports of sleet and/or snow as far south as Mooresville and Concord as well as the Triad area right now w/ temps in the mid 40s.
Yeah, looks like they are just looking at the temps and showing rain as the output because it isn't 32 or lower.
 
Lots of sleet reports coming from the Charlotte metro area w/ temps in the mid-upper 40s. It's very cold aloft.
I think if we can stay below 50 here before the precip arrives there are going to be some quick changes to the forecast.
 
I think it's time to start ditching the models and re-focusing our attention to nowcasting, from what Webber has said it's obvious that the NWP will just keep having problems until it's too late.
 
12z NAM 4 hour forecast vs current 16z observations. This is not a bad forecast overall, it's a little too warm if anything in the Triangle area, Fayetteville, Wilmington, and portions of upstate SC

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RDU has officially warmed up to 50F as anticipated might squeeze out another degree or two before the clouds, virga, and/or light rain/snow to our west move in
 
53 at the house. Clouds thickening up just in time to insulate the warmth. Timing was not particularly good.
 
I really don't get everyone freaking out about temps.
Can you please list who is freaking out? Discussing current obs is hardly freaking out, IMO. I know you want it to snow really really bad. Many of us do. But it’s hard to understand why there’s anything wrong with being a tad realistic also. It’s certainly not something to get upset or offended about.
 
Can you please list who is freaking out? Discussing current obs is hardly freaking out, IMO. I know you want it to snow really really bad. Many of us do. But it’s hard to understand why there’s anything wrong with being a tad realistic also. It’s certainly not something to get upset or offended about.
Difference in just stating current obs and saying oh well, it's too warm for anything but rain now or accumulation when it is really not too warm yet.
 
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