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Wintry Palm Sunday NC and VA Winter Storm

Brick Tamland said:
Based on one model that Webber pointed out is out to lunch? Okay. Whatever.
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Not sure if you would do good with this storm for your back yard, seems more and more likely the mountain would be the sweet spot. Temps will become a big factor where your at.
 
Rain Cold said:
41 at RDU at 10. I’ll be surprised if it doesn’t get into the 50s today. Maybe the surface layer is shallow? Wish that big HP would get to work.
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Cloud deck is just to our West RC. If we don't get that in here quick we can hang it up for our area. I am already at 47.5 with a Dewpoint of 27. Looks like the 12Z NAM suite is throwing a little love our way but I'm still not expecting any snow here in the Garner area. Still think when all is said and done that the RGEM will end up verifying.

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12z 3km NAM came in cooler and is showing proverbial "snow islands" from the US 64 corridor and points N where the precipitation is heavy enough, if its surface temps are off by even a degree this could be a problem from the Triangle and points N or an event that's primarily confined to areas NW of the Triad. We still haven't really figured anything out since yesterday.
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Jon said:
Definitely huge bust potential given undermodeled cad and the lower level temps essentially rising the 0c line. In any event, NWS is way too low for Person county assuming we get the 1”/hr rates as shown on the hrrr
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I'll be interested to see what the HRRR looks like later this evening once we get some solid runs inside 10 hours because it's been too warm for the last 2 events, especially on March 12th when it showed initially no snow getting into the Triangle area and points SE.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'll be interested to see what the HRRR looks like later this evening once we get some solid runs inside 10 hours because it's been too warm for the last 2 events, especially on March 12th when it showed initially no snow getting into the Triangle area and points SE.
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Agree.... I've always said that the HRRR is best within 10 hour time frame, beyond that it usually has wild swings with each run
With that being said this is the not going to happen clown map at 18 on the HRRR, at least it gives me hope that snow will actually fall on March 25th #winning

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Webberweather53 said:
3km NAM busted horribly on temps yesterday night and still didn't do very hot this morning, but you can believe what you want.
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They refuse to listen to you.

I still think I could get a couple of inches out of this. The models seem to be a little too warm with temps like Webber said, and one degree can make all the difference here and for the rest of the Triangle. If we get heavy rates it could be a surprise.
 
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Operational HRRR sounding just looks funky to me. There's heavy precipitation for several hours before this in RDU and what seems to be melting/bright banding on simulated reflectivity and there's no indication of the classic isothermal melting layer anywhere in this sounding over Wake Co. It's certainly odd because if it actually was there, this would cool the low-level portion of the profile towards freezing and change the precipitation over to snow or sleet.
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HRDPS showing temps at freezing for a large portion of Central NC but it's, . . . raining?

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Maybe the models are having a hard time because it is too close to call.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Maybe the models are having a hard time because it is too close to call.
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Like I mentioned yesterday, the primary mechanisms that will be determining p-type is the strength of the diabatically-induced in-situ CAD (which is related to precipitation rates) and of course precipitation rates, neither of these the NWP models handle terribly well and the addition of the in-situ CAD is likely making it even more difficult than usual for them to get a handle on this as opposed to a canonical "warm" snowstorm which is difficult to model on its own.
 
Unless the warm nose is actually so strong that the 0C line between 700-850 hPa will be into Virginia, this won't verify. If it's 33-34F and the warm nose is similar to what's modeled by the 3km NAM this will be heavy wet snow maybe mixed w/ some sleet or graupel. Modeled p-type output is going to struggle in a setup like this
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Sounds like wintry mix is being reported in Winston and Kernersville with temps in the mid 40s. Don’t know if that has any bearing on what happens here later.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Unless the warm nose is actually so strong that the 0C line between 700-850 hPa will be into Virginia, this won't verify. If it's 33-34F and the warm nose is similar to what's modeled by the 3km NAM this will be heavy wet snow maybe mixed w/ some sleet or graupel. Modeled p-type output is going to struggle in a setup like this
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Wish the whole thing was shifted about 20 miles farther south.
 
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