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Pattern Outside of the SE thread

Now will it shift east ? probably not... Although there is hints of a skinny heavy band over here Screenshot_2024-02-09-10-52-42-63_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg
 
Brent said:
Yeah the only issue is the band is gonna be super localized which high bust potential ?

But the NWS isn't expecting much so maybe that's good
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If you have the time I would hop on I-44 and head west. Or are you still going to Colorado ?
 
Snowlover87 said:
If you have the time I would hop on I-44 and head west. Or are you still going to Colorado ?
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Well now there's a snowstorm next Friday on the GFS so I dunno ? it's gonna be a last minute decision for sure

I'm probably staying here Sunday though unless there's just a very drastic difference nearby ( probably not)

Maybe I should plan more trips it seems to wake up the pattern ? I mean the original plan was in mid January when the Arctic outbreak happened
 
Almost no way this would happen, but imagine the 03z RAP managed to be right for Sunday. It’s basically in another universe compared to the other models right now, but goodness would this be epic.29AE4A6E-1BC2-4409-896C-33674E315066.gif
A56194BF-5B7C-4EA8-9A43-ACE68ACB852E.gif

OUN forcasting central OK to potentially get 1-2 inches Sunday night right now. If we can get that Ill take it but based on what Ive seen im not holding my breath.
 
BufordWX said:
Almost no way this would happen, but imagine the 03z RAP managed to be right for Sunday. It’s basically in another universe compared to the other models right now, but goodness would this be epic.View attachment 145966
View attachment 145965

OUN forcasting central OK to potentially get 1-2 inches Sunday night right now. If we can get that Ill take it but based on what Ive seen im not holding my breath.
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Yeah I dunno about there but here the TV met is done... He had absolutely no hope because once again for the 50th time this winter there's no cold air
 
So we could not see a single flake or possibly get over 6 inches. Yeah that really narrows it down /s

I mean I'm really leaning towards nothing but it's not gonna surprise me on the other end either. The model signal around 44 is curious
 
Brent said:
So we could not see a single flake or possibly get over 6 inches. Yeah that really narrows it down /s

I mean I'm really leaning towards nothing but it's not gonna surprise me on the other end either. The model signal around 44 is curious
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This is definitely a tough one to forecast, but im pretty curious about the signal after sunset tommorrow as the deformation band moves in.(assuming it doesn’t end up south as some models do show)

Also the ensembles have a pretty clear split in them between nothing and a decent event for the both of us. Considering we are only about 30-48 hours out from the system moving in there is definitely a higher level of uncertainty than normal. 0-6 inches is a pretty good estimate for what may happen at this point, it will be interesting to see what wins out.

Also here are the 06z EPS and GEFS for both OKC and Tulsa:

OKC: EECA86B7-CC4B-4D24-890A-57291EE7F817.png1BF98B36-823D-4FC7-9DFE-FD109F0E8D30.png

Tulsa:9A85B914-E3A0-4B98-AC86-584891664880.pngC6B82422-8438-43CD-A88D-889DEB5B4ECE.png
 
BufordWX said:
This is definitely a tough one to forecast, but im pretty curious about the signal after sunset tommorrow as the deformation band moves in.(assuming it doesn’t end up south as some models do show)

Also the ensembles have a pretty clear split in them between nothing and a decent event for the both of us. Considering we are only about 30-48 hours out from the system moving in there is definitely a higher level of uncertainty than normal. 0-6 inches is a pretty good estimate for what may happen at this point, it will be interesting to see what wins out.

Also here are the 06z EPS and GEFS for both OKC and Tulsa:

OKC: View attachment 146006View attachment 146007

Tulsa:View attachment 146008View attachment 146009
Click to expand...

The GFS has come a long way from half the members having no snow yesterday ? but yeah I agree this is an impossible forecast sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_c.png
 
OUN sees the potential for higher totals along I-44 with heavier band Sunday night. This is setting up for a classic boom or bust scenario.98A9DD21-4F92-42F7-890D-65DCE5599BFC.png
 
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