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Pattern Outside of the SE thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Brent
Member
If that storm in Kansas is anything like some of the models show ?
I'm definitely favoring a big winter here if it pans out
I'm definitely favoring a big winter here if it pans out
I forecasted 18” for you , I think!
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
no snow for you this winter
Brent
Member
Lmao tbh if it was later in the winter and we didn't have snow yet I'd probably drive up there but I'm telling myself it's November and just the fact it's there is big news. Like they never had a big snowstorm last year at all
Honestly I don't need a 15-20 inch winter I just want a couple good storms and I'll be good
Itryatgolf
Member
The nws out of south central and southern KS are acting like this snow is very minor
Brent
Member
I mean we'll see but the hi res models which were very good at our bust in January last year are burying them
Heavy flurries currently! Appetizer
NAM gives me 12-15 hours of straight snow!
NAM gives me 12-15 hours of straight snow!
30/19 radar looking ? 
ATLwxfan
Member
Everything from a trace to 3 inches on the table for western suburbs of Chicago.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
W
WSW
Guest
Chicago has an awesome climate. I haven't been there in years but always had a great time.
I just had a chance to read the NWS Chicago afternoon discussion and they mentioned that short range models are starting to show some FGEN forced bands setting up that may cause it to overperform.
ATLwxfan
Member
In my short time here it seems there is a theme when it comes to forecasting here. It’s all about the mesoscale models here. The operational and ensemble LR models are notoriously bad here.
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ATLwxfan
Member
Buckle up buttercup…
Models have again trended upward in QPF with this system and
accordingly snowfall amounts have nudged up another tick. Thermal
profiles support snow ratios generally in the 12-13:1 range
through the overnight hours with this system, with decreasing
snowflake quality expected in the afternoon as temperatures warm
and ascent through the colder reaches of the thermal profile
diminishes. The going forecast snowfall totals has 2-3" generally
west of I-55 and the Chicago metro with 1-2" expected north of a
Paxton to Valparaiso line, and up to an inch for areas south.
There continues to be a "streaky" fgen signal in the guidance
coincident with modest EPV reductions indicative of at least some
potential for slantwise parcel accelerations. Taken together, this
suggests brief periods of higher snowfall rates (0.5" per hour)
are possible but will be rather ephemeral for any one location.
Thus suspect there could be narrow ribbons of locally higher
amounts than advertised depending on where these set up.
Given model trends, wouldn`t be surprised if another uptick in
snowfall amounts becomes warranted, but confidence wasn`t high
enough to do so with this update. Additionally, if a more robust
fgen band is able to set up, there could be a localized minimum in
amounts on the northern edge. Nevertheless, be prepared for
slippery travel conditions overnight tonight through Saturday
morning.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Models have again trended upward in QPF with this system and
accordingly snowfall amounts have nudged up another tick. Thermal
profiles support snow ratios generally in the 12-13:1 range
through the overnight hours with this system, with decreasing
snowflake quality expected in the afternoon as temperatures warm
and ascent through the colder reaches of the thermal profile
diminishes. The going forecast snowfall totals has 2-3" generally
west of I-55 and the Chicago metro with 1-2" expected north of a
Paxton to Valparaiso line, and up to an inch for areas south.
There continues to be a "streaky" fgen signal in the guidance
coincident with modest EPV reductions indicative of at least some
potential for slantwise parcel accelerations. Taken together, this
suggests brief periods of higher snowfall rates (0.5" per hour)
are possible but will be rather ephemeral for any one location.
Thus suspect there could be narrow ribbons of locally higher
amounts than advertised depending on where these set up.
Given model trends, wouldn`t be surprised if another uptick in
snowfall amounts becomes warranted, but confidence wasn`t high
enough to do so with this update. Additionally, if a more robust
fgen band is able to set up, there could be a localized minimum in
amounts on the northern edge. Nevertheless, be prepared for
slippery travel conditions overnight tonight through Saturday
morning.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
29/25 
ATLwxfan
Member
Moved over the summer! I’ve spent a winter here in the past also.
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Drizzle Snizzle
Member
How do you compare Chicago summers to Atlanta summers ?
Any worthy chair pics yet?
Brent
Member
Seeing reports of a foot in Kansas ?
If this is any sign of how the winter is gonna be... I mean there are some really really big analogs floating around
If this is any sign of how the winter is gonna be... I mean there are some really really big analogs floating around