BufordWX
Member
Well the ICON went off…
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Pattern Outside of the SE thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Brent
Member
Icon with 15 inches... 
BufordWX
Member
00z models mostly trended south a bit with the heaviest totals. If they are still underestimating the cold air to an extent, which I think is very possible if not likely, these trends may not yet be done.
Brent
Member
Yeah I dunno I'm trying to keep expectations low but I really feel like there's a very high ceiling here. Whether it can be realized or not is the question but I mean these models showing snow for 12-18 hours are eye opening. I've only seen that in the biggest storms I've seen here(or KC)
BufordWX
Member
Its the GFS, but you can see how it just keeps ticking further south each run.
BufordWX
Member
06z HRRR has 8” in Tulsa and that is despite showing the first 6 hours being ZR/IP. Insane totals further north.
Brent
Member
Brent
Member
They are really banking on the mix cutting into our snow totals
Time will tell but if it's snowing this time they are gonna be wrong
Time will tell but if it's snowing this time they are gonna be wrong
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Youre getting absolutely raked on the NAM lolThey are really banking on the mix cutting into our snow totals
Time will tell but if it's snowing this time they are gonna be wrong
Brent
Member
Still showing better snow to my north
I just wonder if the models are correct. I swear we were supposed to mix at the onset in January too and we never did
On a road trip to deliver a vehicle for a mission organization in South Dakota. Left GA early yesterday morning. Spent night in Platte City just north of Kansas City. Snow started this morning around 4:30 am. Traveling north now on I-29. Now south of Omaha.
Trucks passing you is an adventure!
Currently 7 degrees. Dry snow!
Trucks passing you is an adventure!
Currently 7 degrees. Dry snow!
Brent
Member
It's been quite a winter in Kansas for sure
I mean it's still been way better here than the last couple regardless of tomorrow but it's been really crazy up there
The toughest deal driving is the visibility we are dealing with. A little nerve wracking!
One note of interest is that here (just north of Omaha) we are under a WWA and not a warning. Easily warning criteria back home.
Brent
Member
Yeah warning criteria is 4 inches here
Interestingly it is in DFW too even with climo closer to Alabama Georgia than us
Brent
Member
RGEM comes in with a foot here 
Brent
Member
Icon around 10 inches 
I won’t harp too much more, but it’s a first for me. Currently reading 1 degree. Snowing still not quite as heavy. Coming up on Onawa, Iowa.
Brent
Member
From the advisory(!) in Norman 
Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.
Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.
BufordWX
Member
Mike has spoken.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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40s next week here! I’m seriously looking forward to them!
Brent
Member
It always amazes me how the highways are almost self clearing with such cold, dry snows since it just gets blown around and off the lanes by the passing cars. Not something you see as much around here.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Brent
Member
Again if we can towards 8 inches that would be the biggest snowstorm I've seen in Tulsa and that one took 2 days and 2 different rounds. Like we actually had a few hours where the snow stopped then
BufordWX
Member
Something interesting that I noticed is that there may be a region of dry air in the mid-levels as the precipitation moves in tomorrow morning. Even though the column is below freezing, I think this may be why it’s showing a bit of ZR/IP at the onset. Although, it shouldn’t take long for this feature to saturate in Tulsa, but if it holds on longer, it could be a complicating factor.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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My current location! This is almost noon and with a high February sun angle! Look how much below normal we are! Crazy cold! 
Brent
Member
Someone asking about a flight tomorrow afternoon in OKC
Glwt is what I said
Glwt is what I said
Brent
Member
Brent
Member
BufordWX
Member
There’s the Extreme Cold Warning. -15 to -25 wind chills
Brent
Member
School closings have started
This is the final phase before the annoying waiting for the flakes when you'll doubt at some point it's going to happen
This is the final phase before the annoying waiting for the flakes when you'll doubt at some point it's going to happen
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Looks like heaviest will be North of Tulsa but hopefully Tulsa can squeeze out 6".
Brent
Member
They still think we mix I'm not so sure
I think if we can't get 6 inches at least it will be a bit of a bust
BufordWX
Member
You can see the HRRR continues to correct colder for tomorrow morning.
Brent
Member
Yeah I'm really not gonna be surprised if we start mostly snow
Meanwhile the NWS gives Tulsa only a 3 percent chance of getting 8 inches
21 percent 6 inches they are really banking on the sleet eating up a lot of it
BufordWX
Member
HRRR paste bomb in NE OK
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Road trip to Miami ?Yeah I'm really not gonna be surprised if we start mostly snow
Meanwhile the NWS gives Tulsa only a 3 percent chance of getting 8 inches
Brent
Member
I'm not going anywhere
Like I said I'm having a really hard time believing this gradient I think they are being way too cautious here or just hoping the sleet eats it up
Something is gonna be off it's just what
BufordWX
Member
NAM is showing precipitation much earlier. This is 3 AM.