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Pattern Outside of the SE thread

Drizzle Snizzle said:
Hmm. Weather.com is showing about 10 degrees warmer each day than what this is showing
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Yeah I'm not sure the NWS has fully grasp the true scope of this either they are much warmer still too. Well see what happens tomorrow or later today now

The old forecasts still wanna keep the better snow to the NE as we'll

The NAM still keeps the better snow NE of me it's weird. I mean I figured if we miss out we miss out to the south but no
 
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Brent said:
If we get any kind of a south trend here... 6-8 is up there with the biggest storm I've seen here
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I do wonder if that may happen. We already know that the models are very poor with handling artic air masses, and that they often end up coming in stronger and faster than forecast. I wonder if that could nudge this system a little further south.
 
BufordWX said:
I do wonder if that may happen. We already know that the models are very poor with handling artic air masses, and that they often end up coming in stronger and faster than forecast. I wonder if that could nudge this system a little further south.
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Also this whole idea how we start as sleet

It's not making sense to me either but I swear i heard that in January too and then suddenly we had 6 inches of straight snow 🤣 never saw one sleet pellet
 
Latest 48-hr Snowfall Probabilities Ending 12 PM Wednesday:
>6 inches: 50-85%
>8 inches: 20-75%
>10 inches: 15-65%
>12 inches: 10-45%
>14 inches: 5-30%
The lower-end amounts occur near MO/AR border and central MO near I-70.
The higher-end amounts occur along I-44. Exact locations of where the
heaviest snowfall will occur aren`t certain yet and there may be
slight adjustments north/south.
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This is a piece from the afd from the NWS in Springfield, MO. Pretty crazy to see mention of probabilities for 14”+
 
I fully expect Tulsa to primarily be snow, with maybe a very brief period of sleet at the very beginning.

Also, it is funny to see the models struggle so much with depicting arctic air. The 18z HRRR is just getting OKC and Tulsa below freezing by 18z Tuesday. With this kind of airmass, that is almost certainly NOT going to happen so late. The Euro, by comparison, has them in the mid-20s by 12z, and the Euro AI is down to the low 20s at the same time.
 
BufordWX said:
I fully expect Tulsa to primarily be snow, with maybe a very brief period of sleet at the very beginning.

Also, it is funny to see the models struggle so much with depicting arctic air. The 18z HRRR is just getting OKC and Tulsa below freezing by 18z Tuesday. With this kind of airmass, that is almost certainly NOT going to happen so late. The Euro, by comparison, has them in the mid-20s by 12z, and the Euro AI is down to the low 20s at the same time.
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Yeah I'm sorry but theres no way I'm believing with an extreme cold watch for Waco Texas of all places that Tulsa will be struggling with temps or precip type

It makes absolutely no sense and goes against everything about arctic outbreaks here

Y'all can quote me on Tuesday if somehow they are right but like...
 
Another thing to consider is that there will likely be an east-west-oriented slow-moving band of heavier snow that develops later on. Where that sets up, snow will pile up very quickly. RGEM depicts this potential well.IMG_0506.jpeg
 
BufordWX said:
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That's closer to my gut feeling. It's gotta at least get close to the 6 inches we had in January. It didn't even accumulate then til it got dark because temps were so warm!!!

My biggest snowstorm here is around 8 and that was a 2 day storm!

We haven't had one where it really piled up quickly in awhile 🤔
 
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