Pattern Outside of the SE thread

[Brent]

Seeing the HRRR showing us getting buried I mean that's hard to totally ignore. We're getting into the range where the globals are useless anyway

 

[BufordWX]

Hoo boy… thats a NAM’d moment right there.

 

[Brent]

Hoo boy… thats a NAM’d moment right there.View attachment 170088

It's about time we got NAM'ed its been kind of blah

 

[Brent]

 

[BufordWX]

 

[Brent]

Tulsa now mentioning a foot possible

 

[BufordWX]

OUN is upping totals a bit, especially over their north areas.

 

[BufordWX]

“Not sure how far we’ll go.”

 

[BufordWX]

Cold trend continues on the HRRR. 06z run had OKC/Tulsa near freezing for 6:00 AM Tuesday. Latest 20z HRRR run is down to mid twenties for the same time.


Hard to say just how cold this airmass will end up being, but based on the southward snow shifts as well its safe to say the colder we go the further south the heavier snowfall ends up as well.

Tulsa could very well be on the way to a doible digit snowfall!

 

[Brent]

Of particular note with this system will be the SWE ratios well
above climatology for this area, especially points farther north.
The result will be a dry snow that will easily be blown by gusty
north winds, with significant drifting and reductions to
visibility likely. In fact conditions may be close to blizzard in
some areas, particularly over the more open country northwest of
Tulsa as wind gusts approach 30 mph.

 

[Brent]

 

[Brent]

 

[BufordWX]

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Might as well call it a Blizzard.

 

[Brent]

Oh and official blizzard conditions are hard to reach.... Even when I went to Kansas City I think it fell short technically. It was definitely very marginal. Has to be 3 hours of 35 mph winds

 

[BufordWX]

Wind gust forecast for 5:00 PM tomorrow:

 

[Brent]

It's getting darker and darker. The edge of the storm is here

 

[BufordWX]

Wichita already down to 28 just before 5:00 PM. Cold front must not be far from the state line. Their local forecast did not have them below 30 until 8:00. Cold air continues to overperform as expected.

 

[BufordWX]

I’m very curious to see how the temperatures will perform relative to the forecast given the Arctic air moving in. To do this, I will list the NWS forecast temperature and the latest HRRR run for 12z tomorrow (6:00 a.m.) at OKC and Tulsa. Also, these will be from the airports.
These are the current numbers:

OKC 2/18 12z:
NWS: 29
22z HRRR: 22

Tulsa: 2/18 12z:
NWS: 27
22z HRRR: 24

I will reply to this message a little after 6:00 AM with what the actual temperature is at these locations.

 

[GolfishardIknowit70]

Might as well call it a Blizzard.

Temps will make travel almost impossible imo

 

[Brent]

I still see a couple little patches of snow and ice from Saturday night... This is kind of surreal

 

[BufordWX]

Freezing line has entered OK. After this passes, it will probably be the weekend when we go back above freezing again.

 

[Brent]

Snow has begun in Northern Kansas

 

[Brent]

 

[BufordWX]

00z HRRR: 11” for Tulsa!

 

[Brent]

The freeze line is definitely ahead of schedule

 

[Brent]

Yeah I don't know what it is but this storm feels different to me

Like when I went to KC

 

[BufordWX]

Cold front coming into Tulsa now. You can just make it out on radar.

 

[Brent]

These hi res models are getting harder to ignore

And amazingly they still start us as sleet!

 

[superjames1992]

I’m super jealous of the snow + cold shot you all have coming after! Highs in the teens is super cool with snow on the ground!

 

[Brent]

This is insane

 

[Brent]

I think he did lose his mind

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

You guys Using Snow Mobiles yet?


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[Brent]

Reed shout out!

 

[Brent]

Wind really picking up

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

Gonna need some Model Grading from you soon. God Help us if EURO verifies out there, not for me (I’ve given up on Weds) but for the East crew gonna be some upset ppl if it does. Goodluck man, hope you get like 6 feet


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[Brent]

Gonna need some Model Grading from you soon. God Help us if EURO verifies out there, not for me (I’ve given up on Weds) but for the East crew gonna be some upset ppl if it does. Goodluck man, hope you get like 6 feet


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Well the Euro looks to be on the low side of the predictions here and so far at least we're trending away from that. Now things can still go awry but that's where we are now

 

[BufordWX]

The fact that they even mention a 1-3% chance of some places getting 18” is crazy.

 

[Brent]

The fact that they even mention a 1-3% chance of some places getting 18” is crazy.View attachment 170256

Bartlesville isn't that far away either

 

[BufordWX]

Snow is developing quickly in Kansas and is almost to Wichita.