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Ostrich December

SD said:
The Canadian ensembles continue to be very aggressive with their disturbing of the pv at 10mb with the gefs not quite as aggressive but still showing a nice warming and squeezing of the pv.
Obviously the models are less than ideal with their forecasts at 10mb but it's worth continuing to watch. At least in a disturbed off center state we can establish some HLB and cold shots instead of the polar buzzsaw we had last year
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Agreed. That was really an insurmountable issue last year. We just couldn't get cold air due to the tightly wound vortex, unless we had a transient 50/50 low set up shop temporarily...and the timing just never worked for most. Hopefully we can correct that this year and at least keep things up top tossed about like a nice cobb salad.

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looks CADish, but nothing impressive, hopefully that trough can move East as we go forward 88535B06-1810-4804-B3C1-2FFC24C76FB0.pngC16F43B1-E82B-461E-98B0-7CB7369F5A6B.png
 
Damn this looks nice

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Webberweather53 said:
Pretty much expected this to happen, certainly think it's real (placement will be a bigger question). I'm willing to bet the SE ridge will try to make a comeback after as we get close to Christmas.
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Yeah it wouldn’t even surprise me if we see the inevitable trend west with the general trough into the west/southwest
 
It’s funny because since the TPV looks to come back and park around north Canada, the SER looks to build With likely a western trough from a Aleutian ridge which dumps legit cold into the west, that’s just straight up pain at this point
 
We typically see our winter storms right before a southeast ridge takes over. Hopefully we can score before they happens.

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Webberweather53 said:
Looks like we are generally headed towards about warmest pattern you could possibly ask for leading into Christmas. Indian Ocean/Maritime Continent convection in late Dec >>> blowtorch

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It's honestly really cool how well we are following the West Pacific composite in week 2. If we were in an El Nino right now, we'd probably move towards phase 8-1 in late December, but instead we're probably headed back into the dungeon.

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