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Ostrich December

RVD said:
Really? I've never caught that before. Sounds like a good deal to me, lol.
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Yeah along those lines I like this look, it’s getting hinted at on the ensembles and with the blocking likely persisting I think we are going to see some flavorful looks around this time frame. Better for overrunning or a good Miller A.
 
It’s far and few, but a few more members came out with a idea of dumping a wave towards Texas, then advancing the northern stream ahead of that, and sorta allowing some overrunning as it gets picked back up by a second N/S wave and allows some SE snow for SC/NC/GA, give me that anyday over a anafront, unfortunately it’s just a few members
 
Ummm...
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CyclonicFury said:
The above-normal December streak for the Southeast US is in serious jeopardy.
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Dec 1-18 analysis + 7-day GFS forecast still puts us above average in the Carolinas. GSO, RDU, & FAY are about -0.5F below average for the month right now & the next 7 days will likely push us back to above normal

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Webberweather53 said:
Willing to bet as usual the GFS is too suppressed/SE w/ our sfc low track on Xmas Eve, if so, we are much more likely to see severe weather &/or tornadoes than snow esp around here in the Carolinas.

If we manage to find enough instability, this is a nasty look for tornadoes.

View attachment 58624
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Area-averaged sounding over SC on the 12z CMC

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Webberweather53 said:
Willing to bet as usual the GFS is too suppressed/SE w/ our sfc low track on Xmas Eve, if so, we are much more likely to see severe weather &/or tornadoes than snow esp around here in the Carolinas.

If we manage to find enough instability, this is a nasty look for tornadoes.

View attachment 58624
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Yeah, I think severe is probably the more interesting thing to look at esp. for eastern NC and SC on Christmas Eve (as you've shown here). And then a strong cold front and frigid temps on the 25-26th. GFS has me at 26 F on 18z both those days.
 
If the GFS is too SE, though, then that probably means the cold air will take a bit longer to arrive? So I wouldn't be surprised if those temps may be a few degrees too cold on Christmas. Still a good shot at getting sub-freezing highs, with no snow on the ground to boot.
 
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