Ostrich December

[BufordWX]

CFS for Christmas morning. Lol

 

[SimeonNC]

I love that the warmest we get during this "warmup" is the mid-50s.

 

[tramadoc]

[mention]Myfrotho704_ [/mention]Do you have maps for the 23-25 time frame that show CAPE?

 

[ATLwxfan]

Here's what FFC says about the Christmas Eve system.

The February 2020 even was similar to this but not nearly as cold.


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[Myfrotho704_]

[mention]Myfrotho704_ [/mention]Do you have maps for the 23-25 time frame that show CAPE?

Euro was honestly really close to some bad stuff, wow, and EPS is more bullish on severe vs the GFS/GEFS, which is concerning give the the GFS/GEFS have a progressive bias

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

CFS for Christmas morning. LolView attachment 58600

Zoom in on SC and you can see the late arriving cold that will become even more pronounced as we get closer. Snow or no snow. Rain or no rain. The cold will be late.

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Say Wut? Christmas Miracle?

Saturday Night
Mostly Cloudy. A Chance Of Snow Showers After
Midnight. Lows Around 30. Light And Variable Winds. Chance Of
Snow 30 Percent.

Sunday
Mostly Cloudy In The Morning, Then Becoming Partly
Sunny. A Chance Of Snow Showers In The Morning. A Chance Of Rain
Showers. Little Or No Snow Accumulation. Highs In The Upper 40s.
Light And Variable Winds. Chance Of Precipitation 30 Percent.

Sunday Night
Mostly Cloudy With A Chance Of Rain Showers. A
Slight Chance Of Snow Showers After Midnight. Little Or No Snow
Accumulation. Lows In The Lower 30s. Light And Variable Winds.
Chance Of Precipitation 30 Percent.

A chance is all you can ask for a week out!

Thursday Night
Mostly Cloudy. Rain Showers Likely In The
Evening, Then A Chance Of Snow Showers After Midnight. Cooler
With Lows In The Mid 20s. Chance Of Precipitation 60 Percent.

Christmas Day
Mostly Sunny. A Chance Of Snow Showers In The
Morning, Then A Chance Of Rain Showers In The Afternoon. Cooler
With Highs In The Upper 30s. Chance Of Precipitation 30 Percent.

Merry Christmas!

 

[SD]

Couple of interesting things from the Euro. Watch features 1 and 2 over the next few days, if you are looking for secondary wave development along the front or "embedded" as someone called it (sarcasm) tilting the trough axis negative with #2 can help you get there. If you want to try to slow the arctic front and fire a second low #1 can help you get there. Additionally a farther west and slightly stronger #1 would enhance the chance of widespread flurries/convective snow showers on Christmas day

 

[LickWx]

I love that the warmest we get during this "warmup" is the mid-50s.

I personally find that a bit odd , normally with these situations I always recall it being warmer ahead of the cold . We will see.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Couple of interesting things from the Euro. Watch features 1 and 2 over the next few days, if you are looking for secondary wave development along the front or "embedded" as someone called it (sarcasm) tilting the trough axis negative with #2 can help you get there. If you want to try to slow the arctic front and fire a second low #1 can help you get there. Additionally a farther west and slightly stronger #1 would enhance the chance of widespread flurries/convective snow showers on Christmas day
View attachment 58609

So we’ve got options. Jimmy like

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Gfs took a major set back. Cold air chasing moisture will never work out.

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[BufordWX]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looks good to the eye on the sfc, but the tilt was a bit less favorable this run

 

[BufordWX]

View attachment 58613

This accumulation map though... lol

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

View attachment 58613

Get that front to push all the way through and pop a trailing low west of Gainesville riding the Gulf Stream and us Carolina folk might have something to talk about.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Hmm. It looks about the same too me.

Looks a lot different on COD

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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

This should favor TN. NGA, NMS, NAL. WNC

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[NoSnowATL]

This accumulation map though... lolView attachment 58614

Looks fine to me and you.