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Ostrich December

Myfrotho704_ said:
Well that’s true it has since I haven’t seen grass completely under snow in 2 years, but it is a mean, GEFS is certainly much better but at least the EPS isn’t a shutout
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I know I'm just giving u hell I like ur style. I always enjoy the pbp because I'm never near my computer.
 
Still like what I see in regards to that +EAMT, can see hints of the NPAC jet extension associated with below normal heights in the Bering sea which allows a strat attack the on SPV, and also could be the cause to a very +PNA towards late December/early January, keep the -NAO in the equation (I don’t know why it keeps coming back) and it keeps the pattern interesting 47A0D5CB-1891-4F56-BFFE-70F27F667ED4.png47ED18BE-7047-4C52-BF62-21C506C6528C.pngF0AC9197-C163-4593-BCC1-40ABB237DAA3.png957A56A4-A5B4-4634-8C37-BEC2C65FAFE2.png
 
Somebody smarter than me can find the maps but we had a system come through in early December 2000 that went from tornadoes to snow. It was before our bigger snow but it blew through at night and we woke with a good coating and temps holding in the upper teens. A few days later we got the 3.5” but that laid the groundwork. Maybe this will be similar.
 
So seeing the 12z Euro actually take a step towards the GFS does remind me a little of how the model trend began with the 2010 Christmas storm. In that one, the GFS was actually showing in the 7-9 time frame and then lost it, but the Euro latched onto it at 6 days out and eventually the GFS trended back to it as the week progressed. Now this means absolutely nothing with this potential now, but we have definitely seen the Euro 7-8 days out not be what it used to be. Two things look very possible right now...first there looks to be a storm of some type with a lot of energy as we get close to Christmas whether it be a snowstorm or a severe weather outbreak, and secondly the pattern after that storm looks really good especially considering the climo we are going into.
 
Here's what FFC says about the Christmas Eve system.
Rain should be ongoing at the start of the period...with some
lingering rain/snow mix at higher elevations around sunrise
Sunday. Models differ on the low pressure moving along the Gulf
coast on Monday...with the ECMWF showing a slower progression and
some pops possible across east central GA on Monday.
Otherwise...dry until the next trough deepens into the central
states mid week. A surface front should cross the state Wednesday
and Thursday. Have raised the pops a bit for that time...keeping
them in high chance category. Models show this as a progressive
system so the main precip looks like it would clear the area by
Friday. However...with such a deep trough...some wrap around or a
weak short wave could affect north GA Thursday night into early
Friday. Have confined pops to the far north at this time.
Temperatures indicate that this would be an all snow event. Will
continue to monitor this system in the coming days.
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RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
At least the MJO is weak and staying in the circle. It's doing everything it can to no emerge in the favorable phases though I see.
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In all honesty I’m fine with the MJO staying in the circle if it’s not going to emerge into good phases. I remember a couple of years ago when all of the indexes looked good, but the MJO was so strong and in the wrong phases it was controlling everything about our pattern and kept flooding the US with Pacific air
 
Chazwin said:
In all honesty I’m fine with the MJO staying in the circle if it’s not going to emerge into good phases. I remember a couple of years ago when all of the indexes looked good, but the MJO was so strong and in the wrong phases it was controlling everything about our pattern and kept flooding the US with Pacific air
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Yep in the circle is fine. @GaWx has talked about it in the past. Night and day difference from the past few years.
 
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from RAH:
A brief warming trend is then expected midweek ahead of a deep
trough forecast to develop over the central US. This potentially
full-latitude trough should bring a stout, precip laden cold front
Christmas Eve, though timing is still uncertain. With temps in this
pattern likely to crash rapidly behind the front, there will be
interest in the potential for snow on Christmas Day. However,
looking at current forecasts, there would need to be more
significant and southward deepening of the upper low to induce a
surface low at our latitude to produce more anafrontal precip.
Instead the cold air is more likely to be chasing the precip on the
tail end of the event. In any event, Christmas Eve looks to be
unusually mild, and Christmas day may be bitterly cold.
 
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