Ostrich December

[Ollie Williams]

One set of 18z runs is not a reason to give up on a storm. That is beyond pessimistic. You need to have it go in the wrong direction at least 3-4 runs in a row to start throwing this one away

Right, but the overall synoptic setup really isn’t very supportive of a storm, really not a awesome H5 setup, and really not a great push of cold. I think the best we see is a ZR chance for the mountains. We would need to see huge shifts, and we haven’t seen that lately especially since we’re at a point where the storm is on land, and getting worse.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

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Looks like a lot more ice to rain to me, vs the snow/sleet they were showing earlier, honestly it wouldn’t shock me if areas around 85/north pick up some freezing rain, then we switch over to rain, something similar to that one November 2019 setup

 

[Tarheel1]

?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

On the NAM the same thing is happening, energy in SW farther slightly farther south, and that energy in central Canada further south but the main soon to be 50/50 isn’t as good

 

[Clem282340]

On the NAM the same thing is happening, energy in SW farther slightly farther south, and that energy in central Canada further south but the main soon to be 50/50 isn’t as goodView attachment 57126

So it not looking good for a winter storm

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Over land or not we know a lot can change in 5 days. We are still in the game. ?

 

[BirdManDoomW]

So it not looking good for a winter storm

you can’t predict a winter storm from the NAM 5 days out. It’s better short range like 24 hours. Euro is typically good at this range need it to continue to strengthen cad like most recent run.

 

[Tarheel1]

The “highway” to Madison, about 30 min out of DBQ @ 2 pm

 

[Ollie Williams]

I can’t remember the last time (if) we got a surprise where we went from modeled rain to snow. I think that every single surprise went from a little snow, to a lot of snow. January 2000, 2018, December 2010 for example. I wouldn’t hold my breath on this one if we’re routing for a southern trend.

 

[iGRXY]

I don’t think anyone should’ve been expecting snow from this regardless. Freezing rain and sleet and mostly freezing rain was always going to be the likely scenario and that is still very much in play.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Icon looks better already

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

I can’t remember the last time (if) we got a surprise where we went from modeled rain to snow. I think that every single surprise went from a little snow, to a lot of snow. January 2000, 2018, December 2010 for example. I wouldn’t hold my breath on this one if we’re routing for a southern trend.

Oh yeah for sure. Once it trends rain it doesn't trend back

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I can’t remember the last time (if) we got a surprise where we went from modeled rain to snow. I think that every single surprise went from a little snow, to a lot of snow. January 2000, 2018, December 2010 for example. I wouldn’t hold my breath on this one if we’re routing for a southern trend.

I think jan 2016 several models had rain/freezing rain but it ended up trending colder and had more IP instead

 

[Chandler]

I think jan 2016 several models had rain/freezing rain but it ended up trending colder and had more IP instead

Yep

 

[iGRXY]

I think jan 2016 several models had rain/freezing rain but it ended up trending colder and had more IP instead

CAD generally trends colder. Especially when it comes to Ice. One thing I’m noticing is models trying to run out LP into the CAD and that just isn’t going to happen. Seen that happen too many times just for it to trend back to more ice from 72 hrs in

 

[Ollie Williams]

I think jan 2016 several models had rain/freezing rain but it ended up trending colder and had more IP instead

Yeah, but that happens with most every major Miller B setup. ZR is always way over modeled, and ends up being mostly sleet. December 2018 did that, and I think February 2014 did as well. Altogether in those setups, they had a very decent shot of winter precip. I just feel like we’re teetering between ZR and Rain.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

CAD generally trends colder. Especially when it comes to Ice. One thing I’m noticing is models trying to run out LP into the CAD and that just isn’t going to happen. Seen that happen too many times just for it to trend back to more ice from 72 hrs in

Yeah the LP is going to travel the path of least resistance and that isn’t right up in the middle of cold air.

 

[Chazwin]

I think jan 2016 several models had rain/freezing rain but it ended up trending colder and had more IP instead

You are correct. In fact until within 36 hours out, CLT was expected to get predominantly rain, but the NAM really caught on to the strength of the wedge and the colder thermals the day before and the metro area ended up with a major sleet storm

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[iGRXY]

Yeah the LP is going to travel the path of least resistance and that isn’t right up in the middle of cold air.

Most likely scenario is the LP is going to move around the CAD and transition to the coast. The lows never make it above I20 before they transition. Now I will say if you’re expecting snow, that’s just likely not going to happen. The Euro from today’s 12z run had 850’s running around 43 degrees but did have 925s slightly below freezing so you could see some sleet but ZR is likely what we are going to see. Precip isn’t very heavy either but a good .6 - .9 looks possible which could really create some issues.