• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Ostrich December

iGRXY said:
And I’ve seen these models consistently under perform CAD here all my life. I’ve seen them try to drive LP directly into CAD and that just isn’t going to happen. It never does. CAD always over performs, always gets colder the closer you get to show time, and for the globals to be that close to freezing already tells me an ice storm is looking more and more likely. On top of that you only get those ridiculous ice totals from models showing every bit of liquid being freezing rain. No matter if it’s falling very heavy. That’s not the setup here. You’re dealing with lighter precip that lasts over a longer period of time, if it’s as modeled. Now I’m not saying an inch of ice but .25-.5 certainly couldn’t be ruled out.
Click to expand...
Again, the high is receding, with a weak cold air mass. Even if you are right and temps are able to make it below freezing to the update, I’ll say 30-32 degrees because 20s just aren’t realistic. You’d have light precip (as you said), that about half doesn’t freeze because of how marginal temps are. Plus Globals have it in 6-12 hour increments, but in reality, with a receding high 1-2 is more likely.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Again, the high is receding, with a weak cold air mass. Even if you are right and temps are able to make it below freezing to the update, I’ll say 30-32 degrees because 20s just aren’t realistic. You’d have light precip (as you said), that about half doesn’t freeze because of how marginal temps are. Plus Globals have it in 6-12 hour increments, but in reality, with a receding high 1-2 is more likely.
Click to expand...
Again, we can go back and forth on this all night. I’ve seen globals slide highs out too fast and erode CAD way too fast. Until I see the day that it actually happens, I’m in a wait and see. Also the high isn’t receding that fast either.
 
I do think the GFS is to warm this run. With that scenario it will be a touch colder.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Pretty big improvement for the gfs. Although not quite there for Sc or Ga. At least its picking up on what the other models are seeing. That is a bonus this far out. A long way to go and a slight shift southeast with the high and and a slight shift in timing can be huge here. We def got one to track!
 
Ollie Williams said:
I would dial it back. Ignore the Icon warm bias, because most other models agree with it just barely being into freezing north of I-85. Not a real good push of cold air to get an ice storm IMO. I’ve been burned so many times being around 32-33 degrees while the CMC says I get .50 inches of ice. If anybody gets anything outside of maybe a light coating, it’ll be maybe Winston-Salem northwestward. There’s the potential CAD trend, but don’t count on that happening, because it’s easy to get too excited. I have an extremely hard time seeing up in the upper 20’s, it’s just not that strong of climo setup. I could be wrong though.
Click to expand...
Definitely need a continuous low level cold feed or freezing rain is a self-limiting process due to latent heat.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top