Weirdly the euro CAD signature looked better this run at the end, more ZR than IP/SN ? 
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Ostrich December
- Thread starter SETNwx
- Start date
I’d say the 18z Euro actually looked better overall. Notice on the H5 graph, the storm looked more squashed.
It’s just the 50/50 low isn’t as impressive which is quite important, I guess there’s a important balance between a further south storm/better 50/50, if you get one that’s good enough it’ll work out
Edit * and wouldn’t the southeast ridge flexing more introduce more ice rather then snow and sleet ?
18z euro cad stronger and that trend often continues each day for CAD being realized as deeper at the surface. Seen it many times. If cmc comes in again with glory at 0z all bets are gfs is trash as usual.
Southeast ridge taking out snow/sleet would be damaging ZR event.The Virginia guy earlier said it looked like a mess because every Ptype was shown, that’s not a mess but a savior. We need all Ptypes not just all ZR. A little of each is nothing compared to all ZR.
I think that even though the look with the 50/50 low looks worse, the ridging out west looks better, which should allow the high pressure over the Nebraska area to get stronger, which is just as important as the NE low since we’re getting more influence from the +PNA. That should allow the first low to be further south, and have less of a warm nose. The ridge on the east was stronger, but I believe that is from the ridge being stronger as well.
WPC finally bites today and pulls trigger on ZR probabilities for Georgia, North Carolina and Tennessee. Once the odds on their maps go above a certain percentage, a Winter Storm Watch will be issued.
yeah it seems like the 18z gefs was taking that trend to the max, and the WAA aloft wasn’t coming from the first low, but the second one off the coast, as I said, this probably means more ZR as the dominant wintry Ptype
WPC. So far just the mtns. Valid Tuesday. Their maps don’t always match exactly when the storm occurs out in very extended. I expect percentages to slowly increase each day for ZR. I agree with including north Georgia.
The odds are so low because of uncertainty out in the extended and the fact it’s likely to occur after Tuesday. It’s good they are already sending local offices the message tho. Check back daily. 
iGRXY
Member
I’ll be honest I didn’t see snow being much of chance here. Depending on the 925’s you definitely could see some sleet from I40 north but ZR seemed like the most likely precip type from Anderson To Laurens to Union to Chester, north.
18z eps??? Where you at 
Looks warmer, what went wrong ? Can’t see H5 on weathermodels
Jessy89
Member
We will see what the cmc does. But it’s trending the wrong direction
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Dewpoint Dan
Member
There's literally nobody who lives in the area of GA that is shaded in brown. Ok maybe 20 people ?
Wow, 18z basically killed it for us, we were headed the right direction only for this to happen, and it’s probably not gonna go back the good way, sigh
We were to close for any sort of bad trends to happen
You don’t discover a trend that quick over one set of runs. Too far out. Sure it could be all rain but we don’t know. And we don’t know how each system alters the next system with snowpack to the north. We have moisture and cold nearby so let’s be optimistic.
iGRXY
Member
One set of 18z runs is not a reason to give up on a storm. That is beyond pessimistic. You need to have it go in the wrong direction at least 3-4 runs in a row to start throwing this one away