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Ostrich December
- Thread starter SETNwx
- Start date
ICON colder this run and has a close-to (don’t know if this is enough QPF to be considered one) ice storm for areas around 85 and northwest 
iGRXY
Member
Knock off the warm bias temperatures by even 3-4 degrees and that is a very significant ice storm.
ICON has been consistent on this freezing rain setup....
TarHeelSnow
Member
I wish there were a jealous reaction!
I don't think I've ever experienced a total sleet storm with nothing else... I think it would be cool
Van Denton posted it nicely, the odds shifted down 2% from yesterday based on the mean of ensembles for areas near the Greensboro NC airport. I highly recommend reading his Facebook post and how he calculates percentages each day. Looks like ice but it never takes much to drop the snow out of Virginia into western North Carolina when the cad continues to strengthen every run. We simply don’t know. After today tho, a few of us need to quit cliff diving after each set of runs thinking it’s a trend.
TarHeelSnow
Member
Especially for central NC. You had maybe a few ensemble members here or there showing some sleet but that's about it. This really is only a snow threat for the mountains. Still could be interesting though!
Ruh roh, and normally the icon is warm by a few degrees 
That January 2016 had just a little bit of ZR with it... just enough to make nearly 3 inches of sleet on the ground a rock hard glacier... the kids had some really good sledding in that one
Clem282340
Member
Looks like ga is getting colder as well
iGRXY
Member
I’ve seen where it’s stated the ICOn can run 4-7 degrees too warm generally and globals are awful with the depth of CAD and the strength of it so it wouldn’t be at all out the possibility to see the Piedmont and Upstate running around 29-33 degrees here.
Keep in mind that to get a real ice storm, you need to have upper 20’s. These ice setups are usually overestimated/overhyped, when we have temps at freezing. There’s the stronger CAD argument, but there really isn’t any point in getting hyped, unless we get something considerable into the NAM range.
32 degree ZR = tree ice event
iGRXY
Member
And these models already have us at 33-35 degrees right now. It would likely be running 29-31 as of today. CAD always trends colder so upper 20’s is a real possibility here. Like I said earlier, another thing that overhypes the ZR is we get these 2-3 inch events that the models show as all ZR. This is going to be a much lighter falling precip with the storm goal around 3/4 quarters of an inch of liquid that would be falling more like a shower. That can really help with the accrual of ice.
I live on the east facing slopes of the blue ridge it takes alot for an ice storm I will say that seen a many. My chainsaw has the scars to prove it you really need temps below 32° to get any serious accumulation. I highly doubt this system produces much unless your on up the road toward Virginia.
I’ve always thought that as well, but I did a little bit of research and found that during the infamous 1973 Atlanta Ice Storm, temperatures stayed in 30-32 degree range throughout. Heck even IMBY during the January 2017 winter storm, I saw over a 1/4 inch of ice accrual with a temperature of 31-32.
I would dial it back. Ignore the Icon warm bias, because most other models agree with it just barely being into freezing north of I-85. Not a real good push of cold air to get an ice storm IMO. I’ve been burned so many times being around 32-33 degrees while the CMC says I get .50 inches of ice. If anybody gets anything outside of maybe a light coating, it’ll be maybe Winston-Salem northwestward. There’s the potential CAD trend, but don’t count on that happening, because it’s easy to get too excited. I have an extremely hard time seeing up in the upper 20’s, it’s just not that strong of climo setup. I could be wrong though.
True, but those highs were just locked in place and just didn’t go away. This is a receding high, so temps are going to warm up.
iGRXY
Member
And I’ve seen these models consistently under perform CAD here all my life. I’ve seen them try to drive LP directly into CAD and that just isn’t going to happen. It never does. CAD always over performs, always gets colder the closer you get to show time, and for the globals to be that close to freezing already tells me an ice storm is looking more and more likely. On top of that you only get those ridiculous ice totals from models showing every bit of liquid being freezing rain. No matter if it’s falling very heavy. That’s not the setup here. You’re dealing with lighter precip that lasts over a longer period of time, if it’s as modeled. Now I’m not saying an inch of ice but .25-.5 certainly couldn’t be ruled out.