Ostrich December

[Myfrotho704_]

If we manage to score with a -NAO next week, that’s a big win considering the -NAO is really getting going in the next few days

 

[Myfrotho704_]

ICON is another very very close call and is close to some bigger ice

 

[iGRXY]

ICON is another very very close call and is close to some bigger ice View attachment 56972View attachment 56973

Icon Temperatures run way too warm at the surface and this would be a substantial ice storm for the upstate and Piedmont of NC. That is not heavy precip and would accru quite easily on things.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Icon Temperatures run way too warm at the surface and this would be a substantial ice storm for the upstate and Piedmont of NC. That is not heavy precip and would accru quite easily on things.

Yeah icon is usually toasty at the surface. Need the NAM to get into range to get the specs on this one. Does look like those west of 77 need to keep an eye on this one.

 

[tramadoc]

webber explained this before the effects are a slow process

Yes, they are slow, but you can see changes starting to show up (not immediately, but also not a long time out).

 

[iGRXY]

Yeah icon is usually toasty at the surface. Need the NAM to get into range to get the specs on this one. Does look like those west of 77 need to keep an eye on this one.

Mby is at 36 degrees which would likely put it really at 30-32 degrees with lite precip (around .1-.15 per hour) for several hours would create a pretty large ICE Storm. Couple with the fact that these things tend to trend colder as time gets closer. I say we are now tracking the threat (a likely one at that) for a major ice storm in the Carolinas.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Notice how the trough which ends up becoming our confluence keeps trending further south, probably gonna be another gefs run with some icy members if the gfs doesn’t serve up

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Bruh....

 

[Webberweather53]

I know he’s not everyone’s cup of tea and he can be an ass at times (more often than not) but I stopped by DT’s Facebook page (WxRisk) and perused it a bit. I don’t have Facebook so obviously he has an open account, but I found this article he wrote and posted about the La Niña weakening.

In short, none of this crap he is saying actually matters

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Bruh.... View attachment 56975View attachment 56976View attachment 56977

That GFS run was so so so so close to some extreme heavy snow in the mtns

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Like the trend here for the second system

 

[iGRXY]

Like the trend here for the second system View attachment 56978

Trough is really diving deeper to the north. Good sign.

 

[BHS1975]

Trough is really diving deeper to the north. Good sign.

Ice ice baby


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[Myfrotho704_]

obvious trend here

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

The trend looks to be our friend on the 12Z GFS frozen precip into NC this run. Going to be some more doozy ensemble members.

 

[ATLwxfan]

Trough is really diving deeper to the north. Good sign.

Low placement is trash


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[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

View attachment 56981
obvious trend here View attachment 56982

Good to see that big H coming into picture on the last frame. Gotta keep that pushing down just a bit more.

 

[TarHeelSnow]

Like the trend here for the second system View attachment 56978

Am I correct in saying that that ridge in E Canada right above NY pushing that direction is good for a source of cold? Or am I off there?

 

[Jessy89]

NC ice is all I see really


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[tramadoc]

In short, none of this crap he is saying actually matters

Oh I know you hate him. Believe me. LOL