12z NAM
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Ostrich December
- Thread starter SETNwx
- Start date
JB says on his update that he expects a northern trend on the models...
Expect things to get better folks!
Expect things to get better folks!
?
RVD
Meteorology Student
The trends over SE Canada aren't the only thing improving on recent model runs: we're also getting a decent south/more N/S separation trend of our actual system, especially at the 850 mb level:
The position and intensity of this now-cutoff feature is incredibly important for our 850 mb temperatures. The further south and weaker this feature is, even while over the middle of the country, the better our 850 mb temperatures will be. Look at the wind barbs over our area north through the Ohio Valley-- southerly winds are weakening and/or turning easterly or even northerly. With the aid of increasing confluence (look at those heights over the NE drop), this will help prevent WAA or even drive some CAA before the arrival of the system. So keep that trend up and our onset air mass will be colder. The CMC, for instance, has this cutoff low weaker than the GFS and over N Texas, hence the good run.
Even if we can get this trend to continue, we're not going to be able to completely get rid of this feature. The best case scenario is that we get enough of a shift for a snow onset in west-central NC/upstate SC, but as this moves NW, a changeover to ice in favored CAD areas would ensue.
The position and intensity of this now-cutoff feature is incredibly important for our 850 mb temperatures. The further south and weaker this feature is, even while over the middle of the country, the better our 850 mb temperatures will be. Look at the wind barbs over our area north through the Ohio Valley-- southerly winds are weakening and/or turning easterly or even northerly. With the aid of increasing confluence (look at those heights over the NE drop), this will help prevent WAA or even drive some CAA before the arrival of the system. So keep that trend up and our onset air mass will be colder. The CMC, for instance, has this cutoff low weaker than the GFS and over N Texas, hence the good run.
Even if we can get this trend to continue, we're not going to be able to completely get rid of this feature. The best case scenario is that we get enough of a shift for a snow onset in west-central NC/upstate SC, but as this moves NW, a changeover to ice in favored CAD areas would ensue.
RVD
Meteorology Student
Take two?
CMC actually looks interesting after the miller B 
GFS was like a mile off of a monster nor’easter for the entire east coast in fantasy land! .. still good for New England but we all missed out
The only difference was a +PNA and a trough over Colorado
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It looks robust! The whole next 10 days , look super active across most of the US
Round Oak Weather
Member
With these trends do you think we could see the CAD push into SC and GA?
It’s more unlikely there, although the upstate of SC definitely has a bigger shot, depends on confluence/storm track/CAD
Jessy89
Member
Big thing here is the cold bias the cmc has. We need the GFS to come on board in some way. Because the CMC has tricked us before. However I am hopeful
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Cmc is trash for years on ice maps I repeat it every year. The issue is people want answers and we won’t have them until NAM comes into closer range and picks up on temps east of the mountains. Low level dry air will bring cold wintery precip. It’s hidden and will reveal itself in time. Euro does ok but NAM is better.
Yeah I bet the realistic scenario on the CMC is ice for 85/77 and north with snow Mainly in the mountains, it does have the best solution however
CMCE 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Im surprised how many snow members there are. Thought it would be more icy than snow.