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Pattern Oppressive Ornery Obstinate Opposite October

whatalife said:
Might as well join team heat for winter b/c that’s what’s coming


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Not disagreeing; everything sure looks like it wants to point that way, now; however, if memory serves me correctly, last year models (albeit a month later than this) were giving lots of hope to a BN and wet winter and we saw where that went ... so, if I might, let's wait a while before casting concrete ... :confused:
 
pcbjr said:
Not disagreeing; everything sure looks like it wants to point that way, now; however, if memory serves me correctly, last year models (albeit a month later than this) were giving lots of hope to a BN and wet winter and we saw where that went ... so, if I might, let's wait a while before casting concrete ... :confused:
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Sarcasm and 100% agree!


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ATLwxfan said:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017092918/gfs_apcpn_us_52.png

Gonna go ahead and have my roof removed. No need for it.


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The Canadian says not so fast
d4132da8ac3859d502abbb33f9cc683e.jpg


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ForsythSnow said:
Nah, he's too busy hyping up the gulf system the models all have claiming it all in the name of WB. And most importantly, it has no effect on Pennsylvania.
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in all seriousness ... anything "cool" looks to be transient, at best, for now ... which IMHO is a good thing this early in the fall ... we need to wait and be patient ... hurry up cold now and the real winter gets killed ... never fails ... :rolleyes:
 
Another week of summer like weather, then perhaps a cool down around the 10th. The question is, how long will the cooler temps last?
 
I don't think the mountains really want this much. This happens in the 6-10 day range so likely will be much different, but still don't like to see something like this.
gfs_apcpn_us_40.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
gfs_T850_us_53.png
It's that time of year again. Just a hint at what fantasy storms the GFS will offer us.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52.png
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Get use to the Ohio valley runners! It's going to be a common theme this winter, with lots of CAD events, but just 40s and drizzle, no icing or snow! :(
 
Nomanslandva said:
I don't think the mountains really want this much. This happens in the 6-10 day range so likely will be much different, but still don't like to see something like this.
gfs_apcpn_us_40.png
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I wish


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Tarheel1 said:
Get use to the Ohio valley runners! It's going to be a common theme this winter, with lots of CAD events, but just 40s and drizzle, no icing or snow! :(
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Well maybe for your back yard, but my hopes are still alive for a great winter, Lol.
 
accu35 said:
Well maybe for your back yard, but my hopes are still alive for a great winter, Lol.
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Yeah, if the latest run of the CFSv2 is right, winter will be OK! Unfortunately, JB posted it on FB, sooo...
 
As for winter forecasts I'm done with models, I'm just gonna keep note of the drivers(ENSO, QBO, etc
.) and the overall pattern looking into winter.

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SimeonNC said:
As for winter forecasts I'm done with models, I'm just gonna keep note of the drivers(ENSO, QBO, etc
.) and the overall pattern looking into winter.

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+ NAO and - PNA ... what more could you ask for on October 2nd if you want a reversal sometime in December ... o_O
 
Good Lord just looked at the forecast the next 7 days and it looks like summer is going to hang on a while longer. Lows in the mid 60s a few days ! Wouldn't surprise me if the lows end up being in the upper 60s.
 
Gfs for the most part, has been showing/hinting at a nice pattern change temp wise in the LR. Lets hope it does. I rather take my chances now than take a chance later.
 
00z Euro seems to be a little quicker with the cold shot and further east with tropical system.. not sure what the over/under on that is. 00z Gfs also showing first frost for the Tenn valley in about 14 days... yeah yeah, sure. Gonna save this screenshot and compare to the actual.
gfs_T2m_us_50.png
 
whamby said:
00z Euro seems to be a little quicker with the cold shot and further east with tropical system.. not sure what the over/under on that is. 00z Gfs also showing first frost for the Tenn valley in about 14 days... yeah yeah, sure. Gonna save this screenshot and compare to the actual.
gfs_T2m_us_50.png
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We all know the actual will be much warmer.
 
Euro looked good for some drought relief, in the areas that need it! Key is there's a lot of unsettledness in the gulf, whatever form it evolves into, just need it to come N/NE into the SE!
 
It's amazing what a difference well above vs near normal feels like this time of year. Near normal isn't feeling bad at all to me.

Too bad it looks like it'll be well above again for a stretch soon. Maybe that will be the last time ah hahahaha no. We'll still have days through the winter that are well above to well well above.
 
Brent,
The 0Z GFS says you'll be near freezing on 10/17 in the Dallas area! That would be their earliest freeze on record!
 
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