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Pattern Octoburn

epic trend on the EPS for tomorrow from .5-1 to .005-.01
yeah i can't pretend to have tracked the rain potential super hard but i know i was hearing more about the potential late last week than i am now. even seen some discussions about severe wx possibilties. now looks like just a backdoor fropa with a few showers
 
The 18Z GFS is awfully dry. We will probably stay dry the rest of this month over much of NC and SC. The question is how far into November this goes. I'd say until week 3 at least.
 
This is what the highs for the first day of deer season look like. Needless to say, this will be miserable weather to hunt in. A cold front does sweep through and knocks twenty degrees off of the high temperatures the next day.
 

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Euro has been stupid this summer. The retrograding system was dependent upon a phase with a shortwave diving through MO and a ridge building over the top. It has been showing similar stuff all summer out in time only to correct as we move in.

Likely we get a partial phase at least but farther north, keeping the bulk of the precip along/east of 95. Coastal sections up through the mid-Atlantic look to take it on the chin. Persistent onshore flow and now another offshore storm will continue to batter the coast with flooding and beach erosion.
 
This is what the highs for the first day of deer season look like. Needless to say, this will be miserable weather to hunt in. A cold front does sweep through and knocks twenty degrees off of the high temperatures the next day.
There is no way it’s going to be in the mid 90s in Mid October in Georgia, Alabama and South Carolina.
 
Euro has been stupid this summer. The retrograding system was dependent upon a phase with a shortwave diving through MO and a ridge building over the top. It has been showing similar stuff all summer out in time only to correct as we move in.

Likely we get a partial phase at least but farther north, keeping the bulk of the precip along/east of 95. Coastal sections up through the mid-Atlantic look to take it on the chin. Persistent onshore flow and now another offshore storm will continue to batter the coast with flooding and beach erosion.
We have a recurring typhoon that should put a trough over the east and I think models will pick up on it later than usual imo. Quick shot of cooler air
 
There is no way it’s going to be in the mid 90s in Mid October in Georgia, Alabama and South Carolina.
Thank you. These posts of the GFS are worthless. It routinely does this in summer and when we transition into fall. Every single year it keeps 90’s and 100’s going well into October which doesn’t happen.
 
There is no way it’s going to be in the mid 90s in Mid October in Georgia, Alabama and South Carolina.

That gfs has 95 in Macon on 10/18, 3 hotter than the record set in 1897. Also, the latest 95 back to 1897 was on Oct 7th (1951).
It has 91 at ATL vs the record of 86 and the latest 91 being 10/9/1941.
 
pretty wildly humid for this time of year this morning
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looking forward to this change greatly
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should be some patchy frost for favored NC high country valleys friday AM. beyond a delightful wx weekend, euro ai remains the king of the heat misers. first up, the EPS 7-day 2m anom for next monday to the following monday:
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now, the euro ai ens:
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and i'll toss the GEFS in there too
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hopefully we can beat back this delightful "giant ridge over a lot of america" pattern that looks to dominate the forseeable future. there's been a few moments of D10-12 noise for some hope but that may indeed just end up being D10-12 noise. 0z euro op had this crazy trough handoff sequence that somehow resulted in a perfectly placed mini trough that got bolstered by an incoming wave packet into a big east coast cold front. seems like a low percentage thing! maybe on the other side of the weekend we get some idea of what could give us a chance of breaking this up, beyond our wedge front angels saving the day lately
 
Starting to think the 2nd half of October -nao might be a real thing. -nao precursor cutoff is getting within 5 days but the mjo doesn't support the -nao until p4/5. Might be the models rushing the pattern change idk
 
Starting to think the 2nd half of October -nao might be a real thing. -nao precursor cutoff is getting within 5 days but the mjo doesn't support the -nao until p4/5. Might be the models rushing the pattern change idk
I hear that we typically don't want a -nao in October. I know there are exceptions to the rule.
 
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