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Pattern Octoburn

Avalanche said:
We need the warmth to continue for a bit. The sick and elderly aren’t prepared for chilly nights on the porch huddled in blankets just to keep themselves warm so they can enjoy their evening.

Plus, when they leave their comfy facility and controlled environment it’s an unhealthy shock to the system to suddenly get cold.
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At least fantasy land on the GFS has snow in the neighboring state now

If I remember last year it went from hot to cold really quick. The longer we drag this heat on the more likely that becomes

Last 7pm sunset is Sunday... And sunrise is almost 730 right now
 
SD said:
I think all in all this pattern has largely sucked for about 5 weeks now and all we can do is complain about it.

You can put me on team no rain and endless heat FYI.
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True.

That means you got to report to Shetley, then.
 
Snowman63 said:
I'll be glad when the ridge over the center of the country breaks down, it's currently 90° in Minneapolis and 79° in New Orleans. smh
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Right? People are complaining about it being hot here but we aren't even close to records. My issue is more how dry it's been

Minneapolis on the other hand 😬 only 3 times above 90 since 1872
 
I’m getting some light to moderate showers that are moving W from off the ocean. First rain of the month. The forecast is for scattered showers to continue to occur in the area through the remainder of the night and through tomorrow. There could be a few thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.
 
There will continue to be persistent moderate NE and then E winds during the upcoming few days followed by a freshening of them from the NE late week from a new surface high. In addition, there’s a full moon on Tue (10/7) and perigee on Wed (10/8). As a result of the moon, astronomical tides are progged to be the highest of 2025 so far Oct 7-10. Because these already quite high tides are going to combine with the current and upcoming week’s winds, as well as a stronger surge of NE winds Thu/Fri, there’s a possibility of major coastal flooding at/near high tide late this week in the corridor from CHS through GA. Those in or traveling to coastal areas late this week should keep up to date on this:

From KCHS NWS:
GUSTY NE WINDS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT -
25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE REFLECTING A MOST LIKELY WIND SPEED
ALONG THE COAST OF AROUND 20-30 MPH - TO END THE WORKWEEK,
WHICH, IN ADDITION TO ALREADY ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS, COULD BRING
A PERIOD OF VERY IMPACTFUL TIDAL FLOODING TO END THE WEEK. SEE
COASTAL FLOODING SECTION FOR MORE.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASED THROUGH NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE UPCOMING FULL MOON (OCT 7) AND PERIGEE (OCT 8). THIS
IN COMBINATION WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL CAUSE THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL FLOODING TO BECOME
MORE LIKELY ALONG THE ENTIRE COASTLINE, INCLUDING BOTH DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON AND FORT PULASKI. SALTWATER INUNDATION COULD THEN
OCCUR DURING BOTH THE MORNING AND EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES
DURING THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
THIS FAR OUT, PERSISTENT FAVORABLE WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE UP TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
 
This early fall heat wave is breaking records all across the Northeast and Midwest. I haven't looked at any forecasts today but it looks like some relief will be on the way by the middle of the week. 90 degrees in Minnesota and upper 80s all across the Northeast in October is insane.
 
weather bubba said:
This early fall heat wave is breaking records all across the Northeast and Midwest. I haven't looked at any forecasts today but it looks like some relief will be on the way by the middle of the week. 90 degrees in Minnesota and upper 80s all across the Northeast in October is insane.
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91 in Minneapolis yesterday and 62 tomorrow !
 
GaWx said:
I’m getting some light to moderate showers that are moving W from off the ocean. First rain of the month. The forecast is for scattered showers to continue to occur in the area through the remainder of the night and through tomorrow. There could be a few thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.
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Followup: rain became moderate to even heavy at times and more continuous the last few hours including some heavy rain in a thunderstorm a few minutes ago. But so far there’s been no flooding in my location as the totals appear to be no more than 1” so far. Now the precip. elements are moving more SE to NW.

Edit: As I was typing, this FFW was released, mainly for N and W parts of my county as my area hasn’t had the 2-3” referenced:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1121 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT.

* AT 1121 AM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN
HAVE FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY.

HAZARD...FLASH FLOODING CAUSED BY THUNDERSTORMS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN
AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
POOLER, I-16/I-95 INTERCHANGE, SAVANNAH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT,
GODLEY STATION, HUNTER ARMY AIRFIELD, DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH, GARDEN
CITY, PORT WENTWORTH, BLOOMINGDALE AND MEINHARD.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN CHATHAM COUNTY. THE
SAVANNAH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT MEASURED 1.53 INCHES IN AN HOUR AND
OTHER AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES IN THE AREA HAVE MEASURED NEARLY 3
INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR TODAY.
—————
.*Edit: I roughly estimate I got 0.75” during the daylight hours today.
 
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GaWx said:
I’m getting some light to moderate showers that are moving W from off the ocean. First rain of the month. The forecast is for scattered showers to continue to occur in the area through the remainder of the night and through tomorrow. There could be a few thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.
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Getting some light showers for the first time on a while this morning here. I got a few inches in September ..coming off the wettest August I have ever experienced..and certainly so without a single tropical system. I meant to report this week's ago but I recorded just over 18 inches for the month. I saw water in places I haven't even seen it before at one point. So I haven't minded this dry spell but hoping things pick back up soon.
 
Makeitsnow said:
Getting some light showers for the first time on a while this morning here. I got a few inches in September ..coming off the wettest August I have ever experienced..and certainly so without a single tropical system. I meant to report this week's ago but I recorded just over 18 inches for the month. I saw water in places I haven't even seen it before at one point. So I haven't minded this dry spell but hoping things pick back up soon.
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How did you get 18 inches of rain in August without a tropical system ?
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
How did you get 18 inches of rain in August without a tropical system ?
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I don’t know whether or not Makeitsnow is near my area, but I got an amazing 17.1” in August without a tropical system since there were none near the SE that month. Daily details of my 17.1” month can be read in the “Bone Dry August” thread.
 
What’s with that hybridish nor’easter offshore the E coast this weekend into next week? It’s on all 12Z major ops in one form or another.

Example: 12Z Euro has this, which had moved NNE to this position, and which then turns sharply left into NJ in Sandy fashion:
IMG_4752.png
 
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Regarding the cutoff hybrid that should keep the E coast safe from tropical, will it be safe from the cutoff hybrid, itself? This would be still another mess on the hard hit NC coast!
18Z Euro:
sfc:
IMG_4761.png

total rain thru 144 with some still falling near coast:
IMG_4759.png

winds:
IMG_4760.png
 
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GaWx said:
Regarding the cutoff hybrid that should keep the E coast safe from tropical, will it be safe from the cutoff hybrid, itself? This would be still another mess on the hard hit NC coast!
18Z Euro:
sfc:
View attachment 175365

total rain thru 144 with some still falling near coast:
View attachment 175366

winds:
View attachment 175367
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To along with that, the globals also keep much of the Carolina below 70 for highs on Friday with the ICON keeping some areas below 60
 
I’ve been getting off and on rains (mainly on) the last few hours from showers moving WNW from the ocean, including some short periods of heavy.
 
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