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Pattern Octoburn
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Models look promising next weekend for eastern sections.
Just about all of the major operationals now have this hybrid/cutoff low with at least most of them heavily influencing the wx for most of the area from E NC up through the MidAtlantic states. The GFS, the last major holdout, finally joined the nor’easter party starting with its 0Z run.
Interesting mid-level Fujiwhara on the 0Z Euro. That would get it into the coast.
One thing I've noticed time and again this season is that in the 5-10 day time frame, models want to show a big southeastward ridge or block in SE Canada. This would help steer a system just off the EC back west, and it has been doing that in the modeling. But as we move in, the block is less impressive and we end up with systems staying offshore or the alleged cutoff over the SE ending up not so strong and thus more progressive. That is something to watch here and as we head into winter.
oh the humanity. oh the roasting. 
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
My goodness look at Northern Missouri.
Tsappfrog20
Member
NWS just upgraded The Enderlin, North Dakota #tornado from June 20, 2025 has been UPGRADED TO AN EF5.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Brent
Member
So apparently we broke the ef5 streak since 2013
On a tornado in North Dakota of all states in June
On a tornado in North Dakota of all states in June
The Euro is still jumping around quite a bit with the track of the cut-off hybrid. The 12Z has it much further SSW with it never getting close to the Mid-Atlantic states:
From that position, it weakens as it moves WSW and then dies as the center reaches far S SC. This track is an outlier:
From that position, it weakens as it moves WSW and then dies as the center reaches far S SC. This track is an outlier:
NCSNOW
Member
Think Posotive: Jack Frost is Coming! Just around the corner, after our 72 hour 80 degree days spat middle next week.
NCSNOW
Member
Indeed, I see the 12Z Icon and Euro are very close to each other with where the low forms. But whereas the Icon then takes it up the E coast, this very odd looking Euro has it stall and then move WSW.
Interesting time frame selected
#wedge
Happy Hour Icon assuming it isn’t just because it’s drunk
is further offshore than the prior 3 runs: