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Pattern Octoburn

SD said:
epic trend on the EPS for tomorrow from .5-1 to .005-.01
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yeah i can't pretend to have tracked the rain potential super hard but i know i was hearing more about the potential late last week than i am now. even seen some discussions about severe wx possibilties. now looks like just a backdoor fropa with a few showers
 
The 18Z GFS is awfully dry. We will probably stay dry the rest of this month over much of NC and SC. The question is how far into November this goes. I'd say until week 3 at least.
 
This is what the highs for the first day of deer season look like. Needless to say, this will be miserable weather to hunt in. A cold front does sweep through and knocks twenty degrees off of the high temperatures the next day.
 

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Euro has been stupid this summer. The retrograding system was dependent upon a phase with a shortwave diving through MO and a ridge building over the top. It has been showing similar stuff all summer out in time only to correct as we move in.

Likely we get a partial phase at least but farther north, keeping the bulk of the precip along/east of 95. Coastal sections up through the mid-Atlantic look to take it on the chin. Persistent onshore flow and now another offshore storm will continue to batter the coast with flooding and beach erosion.
 
weather bubba said:
This is what the highs for the first day of deer season look like. Needless to say, this will be miserable weather to hunt in. A cold front does sweep through and knocks twenty degrees off of the high temperatures the next day.
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There is no way it’s going to be in the mid 90s in Mid October in Georgia, Alabama and South Carolina.
 
Rain Cold said:
Euro has been stupid this summer. The retrograding system was dependent upon a phase with a shortwave diving through MO and a ridge building over the top. It has been showing similar stuff all summer out in time only to correct as we move in.

Likely we get a partial phase at least but farther north, keeping the bulk of the precip along/east of 95. Coastal sections up through the mid-Atlantic look to take it on the chin. Persistent onshore flow and now another offshore storm will continue to batter the coast with flooding and beach erosion.
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We have a recurring typhoon that should put a trough over the east and I think models will pick up on it later than usual imo. Quick shot of cooler air
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
There is no way it’s going to be in the mid 90s in Mid October in Georgia, Alabama and South Carolina.
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Thank you. These posts of the GFS are worthless. It routinely does this in summer and when we transition into fall. Every single year it keeps 90’s and 100’s going well into October which doesn’t happen.
 
SD said:
How much for Philly
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This giving flashbacks to last months system that was supposed to dump on C/ENC, with FW issued for a few spotty showers. Models really have been horrendous with ULL and coastals this year it seems
 
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iGRXY said:
Thank you. These posts of the GFS are worthless. It routinely does this in summer and when we transition into fall. Every single year it keeps 90’s and 100’s going well into October which doesn’t happen.
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at least you're not Jonesville
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
There is no way it’s going to be in the mid 90s in Mid October in Georgia, Alabama and South Carolina.
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That gfs has 95 in Macon on 10/18, 3 hotter than the record set in 1897. Also, the latest 95 back to 1897 was on Oct 7th (1951).
It has 91 at ATL vs the record of 86 and the latest 91 being 10/9/1941.
 
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