UKMET really likes the idea of that energy cutting off more SW but advancing from our west vs the GFS where it’s more towards our north, and because of this, it shows quite the severe weather setup
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Pattern October Thread
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Euro looked pretty decent for severe to our west
While it’s typically H5 then sfc, this is definitely a interesting take and one that does make sense, would probably at least think that would allow sfc low pressure that would then allow slightly lower heights then normal and a better environment where lower heights from other areas can slip in
Indeed.
You can you see the pac warm pool reflected on the models as what has been a semi permanent ridge/recurring ridge.
This acts to A. Accelerate the jet as systems pass by
B. Wave break near the WC
The fact that the CFS is starting to reflect this pacific trough/western US trough dominated pattern lol
Dewpoint Dan
Member
I'm not even sure it matters for the south whether it's a warm or cold winter. Most people on here only care about snow and some of the snowiest winters I've seen were in very warm winters.
Oh so now we trust the CFS the HIPOCRACY ! ? jk
tennessee storm
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Don’t know if that even makes sense lol…
That may be true for Central Indiana, since "very warm" there is still cold.
Not so sure that applies to the South.
Right now I'm just worried about the source regions for our winter cold. Here's the GFS for today and then for day 16. I guess it gets a little better the next two weeks but we want to see a whole lot more blue by the time Thanksgiving gets here.
Dewpoint Dan
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How does it not make sense ? I think both 91-92 and 01-02 were warm winters yet very snowy. 2017-18 very warm but extremely snowy. I'm talking about Georgia.
tennessee storm
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See where u going with this. . And your correct, but I think it applies to more your area Midwest northern plains area, we’re u can be little warmer and get more snow .
LovingGulfLows
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Let's be real. It's about about timing here in the South. The jet stream dipping down at the right angle at the right time. Cooler than average winters just increase the odds a bit of a big snowstorm. Wasn't Texas warmer than average for December and January this year before they had a historic Feburary?
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Cooler than avg may increase odds a little but honestly I don't think it's a huge deal whether it's a warm or cold winter. We can score in a warm or cold winter and all it takes is for one snowstorm to make for a good winter in the south.
Interesting for severe wx prospects other then the aggressive wedge the icon shows (and normally always shows) 
Definitely some real flash flooding potential here if the models hold on this output
So far, the stratus that was forecasted has held off. It's been mostly sunny all morning.
Not sure we're completely out of the woods yet though. A broken CU field might still attempt to fill in, at least briefly, over the next hour or two.
Not sure we're completely out of the woods yet though. A broken CU field might still attempt to fill in, at least briefly, over the next hour or two.
GFS has really been struggling with this feature to our NE, on the icon it cuts off the the west, makes me wonder if the GFS is to progressive with it on top the SER 
Yeah big difference in what the uk/euro/icon spit out of the western trough vs the gfs and cmc. Normally I'd go with the non north American models but since I would like rain gfs will win
Lol feels like we see this Atlantic cutoff look every month on models only for it to not happen 
The struggle is real with this upcoming pattern through at least D10
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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And cold and dry sucks- ?
Yeah what a change, I’m interested to see how the UK shows that piece of energy from the western trough in just a few minutes, if it slides on top the ridge it wedges us, if it’s cuts off to our west instead, we get possibly some severe wx 
Uk looks like the gfs
Yep 
Avalanche
Member
I love the low dews but we need rain badly. Seems like the ridge just keeps us dry and dry fronts with limited moisture and lift.
Now we can dampen that trough out and watch what could be the coolest air of the season moderate
The thing about the south is that one storm a 10-14 period in an overall warm winter can give you well above average snowfall. For us in the Carolinas ‘87-88 and ‘99-2000 are remembered as well above average winters for snowfall in a lot of areas, but overall both of those winters were quite mild.
I mean it wouldn't be a classic but it would work it'll be different in 6 hours
Euro still going with a cutoff 
That’s a pretty gnarly high shear/low cape setup 
Perhaps, but those types of storms are rare in the first place.
For every year like the 2 you mentioned, they're easily outnumbered by winters like 2011-2012, or even 2007-2008 (which was very warm, but snowy only for the Great Lakes and NE).
These soundings over NGA (can’t get ones over SC/NC due to skip over 03z) definitely hold some potential for severe weather, but it’s crazy because all other models are completely different with this piece of energy 
