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Pattern October Thread

The time to be concerned, imo, is if it's still like this in November. Either we go two ways. 1. We blowtorch all winter or 2. things change to where we can have a first half of winter pretty cold. If it's cold in November I wont get excited because it can easily flip back warm for December.
 
This storm needs a tornado warning. Also the storm just south of Birmingham has me a tad worried. Just saw a local meteorologist comment on it. It's spitting out thunder and lightening like a strobe light. Which is a little worrying. And not to mention the the boundary it's near. Screenshot_20211006-193955.png
 
CFS still look good as we roll into November. Im still thinking 10/20, give or take a day, we start evolving to seasonal normalcy.
 
Bro the flooding is ridiculous south of Birmingham. This storm is dropping buckets of rain and it's now moving also this thing keeps toying with spinning up. Making me stay away and watch it when I needs be in bed lolScreenshot_20211006-202610.pngScreenshot_20211006-202605.png
 
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Almost 5 inch hour rainfall rate and this storm is not moving. Where's the flash flood emergency. Already using boats in Hoover.

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LOL at FWD's forecast discussion...

000
FXUS64 KFWD 070504
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1204 AM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday/

There`s been a graphic circulating around the internet explaining
that Texas has 12 seasons instead of 4. Well, it may be on to
something. We moved past "still summer" and "false fall" and are
about to squarely move into "second summer" to close out the work
week. The cutoff low that kept us under dry and somewhat cool
northerly flow early this week is clearing out of the region and
paving the way for a mid-level ridge to nose over Texas from the
southwest. Stout warm/moist advection on the surface will also
increase in the coming days as a stagnant leeside low deepens to
our west. These factors will cause temperatures to steadily climb
over the next few days. Expect temperatures to run about 10
degrees above normal this afternoon, then about 10-15 degrees
above normal Friday morning and afternoon. The winds on Friday
will also increase, with most experiencing a south wind 10-15 mph
and occasional gusts as high as around 30 mph.

Bonnette

And this is the graphic they're referring to:

1633593213073.png
 
I live in Arab. This is the worst flooding I have ever seen in this area. We topped out right at 10 inches of rain. This is way worse than the Christmas flood. Roads and bridges are washed out but the worst is that a toddler was killed when their car was swept away. Please say a prayer for their family
 
Already a 30% severe for Sunday’s severe weather. Going to be interesting to see what the CAMs show when they come into range.DA8AF0B5-E8E7-46F8-B452-16779ABF5D5C.gif
 
BHS1975 said:
Yeah the HRRR is showing some training storms around Charlotte.


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I wonder if there is a wedge boundary trying to set up. Despite the dewpoint being in the mid 60s, the air certainly feels a lot better this morning with a light but steady NE breeze
 
34 inches of rain in 24 hours breaks continental record
By Mary Gilbert, AccuWeather meteorologist
Updated Oct. 6, 2021 4:21 PM EDT

The Bormida di Spigno River in Cairo Montenotte, Liguria, Italy, rose to its banks Oct. 4 after Liguria received half a year's worth of rain in 12 hours.
Parts of northern Italy are recovering from a historic deluge earlier this week that produced a new continent-wide record for rainfall over a 12-hour period and left one city with nearly a year's worth of rainfall in one day.

Rossiglione, Italy, located in the Genoa province, found itself in the absolute worst of Monday's extreme rainfall. The city ended up with a mind-boggling 34.8 inches (883.8 mm) of rainfall over the course of 24 hours.

The annual rainfall total for the nearby city of Genoa itself tops out at just over 42 inches, which is fairly representative for the region at large, according to AccuWeather forecasters. This means that Rossiglione recorded 82.9 percent of the average rainfall that falls over the course of an entire year in the region in just 24 hours.

In order to record rainfall totals that extreme, rainfall rates have to be extraordinary, perhaps even record-breaking.

In 12 hours, from 5:40 a.m. to 5:40 p.m. local time, the city recorded a staggering 29.2 inches (740.6 mm), which broke the record for the European continent, according to climatologist Maximiliano Herrera.

"That's ridiculous rainfall," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.
 
Not that I needed the rain but we've had well under an inch total the past few days so it's been quite underwhelming. If it's going to be cloudy and soupy it might as well rain.
 
NCSNOW said:
34 inches of rain in 24 hours breaks continental record
By Mary Gilbert, AccuWeather meteorologist
Updated Oct. 6, 2021 4:21 PM EDT

The Bormida di Spigno River in Cairo Montenotte, Liguria, Italy, rose to its banks Oct. 4 after Liguria received half a year's worth of rain in 12 hours.
Parts of northern Italy are recovering from a historic deluge earlier this week that produced a new continent-wide record for rainfall over a 12-hour period and left one city with nearly a year's worth of rainfall in one day.

Rossiglione, Italy, located in the Genoa province, found itself in the absolute worst of Monday's extreme rainfall. The city ended up with a mind-boggling 34.8 inches (883.8 mm) of rainfall over the course of 24 hours.

The annual rainfall total for the nearby city of Genoa itself tops out at just over 42 inches, which is fairly representative for the region at large, according to AccuWeather forecasters. This means that Rossiglione recorded 82.9 percent of the average rainfall that falls over the course of an entire year in the region in just 24 hours.

In order to record rainfall totals that extreme, rainfall rates have to be extraordinary, perhaps even record-breaking.

In 12 hours, from 5:40 a.m. to 5:40 p.m. local time, the city recorded a staggering 29.2 inches (740.6 mm), which broke the record for the European continent, according to climatologist Maximiliano Herrera.

"That's ridiculous rainfall," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.
Click to expand...

Oh yet another rain bomb? You don't say. I thought AGW was a hoax.


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BHS1975 said:
Oh yet another rain bomb? You don't say. I thought AGW was a hoax.


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Every time there is a significant weather event, you don't need to post a disclaimer about AGW. We all know your position on this. If it needs to be discussed, which is absolutely fine, let's talk about it in the GW thread, please.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looks legit to me, not looking forward to working outside in colder weather View attachment 92232View attachment 92233
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I wonder how this October compares to 2017? I remember that year being particularly warm up until the last 1/3rd of the month, then it cooled off considerably and we had a decent mountain snow the last week of the month. Flipped overnight.
 
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