Pattern October Thread

[SD]

Lol not moving, even in subtropical climate region by October start to get a little reprieve from the dews.

I'm hoping that maybe we can get enough of a low off the coast we can get into some 50 degree dews. Gfs and icon seem to be the most enthusiastic the euro not at all

 

[Zander98al]

Storms last night in the Birmingham area knocked a tree through my pastors house missing his 4 kids and he and his wife. These storms have been rough along with all the saturated ground.

Sent from my moto g power using Tapatalk

 

[RBR71]

I'm hoping that maybe we can get enough of a low off the coast we can get into some 50 degree dews. Gfs and icon seem to be the most enthusiastic the euro not at all

Let's hope so I'd hate to have to move

 

[SD]

This can shift SW to you would be fine with me lol. Don't want that much rain, farmers needed that weeks ago not in the middle of harvest season but if we gonna feel like summer might as well have some interesting weather to go along with it I guess.

Yeah looks like peanuts and soybeans left to harvest. I'm not even sure a 1-3 inch rain would cause an issue since it's been so dry lately.

 

[RBR71]

Yeah looks like peanuts and soybeans left to harvest. I'm not even sure a 1-3 inch rain would cause an issue since it's been so dry lately.

1-3 probably not (3 might be getting close) but if one of those 6" amounts like the CMC is showing actually occurs, different scenario. That low is the wild card

 

[SD]

Let's hope so I'd hate to have to move

I wonder if daily avg on dew points is a thing? I guess it would trend close to avg lows

 

[NorthDFWwx]

As of today, DFW is at 2.1*F above average for October.

That number should go up notably after tomorrow.

 

[RBR71]

I wonder if daily avg on dew points is a thing? I guess it would trend close to avg lows

Yeah I would think so too, all I know is avg. highs drop below 70 around the 25th and right now it's struggling to drop below that at night lol

 

[SD]

Yeah I would think so too, all I know is avg. highs drop below 70 around the 25th and right now it's struggling to drop below that at night lol

The overnight models didn't look terrible in the extended.

 

[SD]

Posting the 384 gfs for effect but the warming and disturbance starts at D7. It has support from the gefs and geps

 

[SD]

Watch the Davis strait region over the coming days

Basically an omega block here, can we undercut it? Pacific may not play nice enough to

 

[smast16]

At least in 2018 the pattern turned cooler on the 10th, and in 2019 it flipped on the 4th or 5th.

GEM and Euro offer no hope. Our only hope comes from the GFS, so lets just say i'm not overly enthused.

 

[SD]

Lol that pac jet

 

[LickWx]

Perhaps moving out of the Subtropical Climate region would help? ?

I personally feel the subtropical category is too expansive . It includes places like New York city which despite all its UHI still barely has January means above freezing . It almost includes Cincinnati Ohio now even .

 

[smast16]

Lol that pac jetView attachment 92158

That has the potential to be nice, or horrific with a few shifts in either direction.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Pretty wet 48 hours coming up for WNC.

 

[BufordWX]

I’d watch these storms as they move further north for a brief tornado potential, especially if they continue to organize.

 

[Tarheel1]

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

-25F anomalies on an ensemble mean past day 7?!

WTF


View attachment 92142

? I wish those would move East of the Apps.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Models are still roasting our source region into towards the last week of October … that’s No good

 

[SD]

Models are still roasting our source region into towards the last week of October … that’s No good View attachment 92165

I do wonder if the warmer up there is going to equal more snow

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Just a beautiful H5 pattern

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Just a beautiful H5 pattern View attachment 92168

That consistent troughing above New England.. we’re going to get cold rain CAD so hard this winter I can just tell

 

[bigstick10]

Looks like some nasty weather heading in to ATL very soon.

 

[Zander98al]

I’d watch these storms as they move further north for a brief tornado potential, especially if they continue to organize.View attachment 92163

 

[iGRXY]

That consistent troughing above New England.. we’re going to get cold rain CAD so hard this winter I can just tell

Already can tell how this is going to shake out. Everyone west of the apps are warm. Everybody east will probably see a ton of 30 and 40 degree rainy or misty days. Sprinkle in some cold shots in December through January.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Sus

 

[Zander98al]

Tornado warning west of Macon Georgia!!

 

[Zander98al]

Sus View attachment 92177

Pretty decent meso structure tbh.

Sent from my moto g power using Tapatalk

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

?View attachment 92174View attachment 92175View attachment 92176

certainly don’t like where this is headed but trends that are further than 300 hours out .. really don’t mean much

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That’s close to 30 degrees AN in Canada

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Those are some ridiculously warm 850s for mid October, in the summer this would equate to days in the low-mid 90s

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The euro run is exactly how you trend warmer and extend a warmer pattern lol

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

That’s close to 30 degrees AN in Canada View attachment 92179View attachment 92180

Luckily we stay away from the worst as we have most of the summer rip our northern states tho

 

[Myfrotho704_]

End off with this, this is teetering between sucking and finally getting something different on the EC

 

[NorthDFWwx]

Obviously for ----- & giggles, looking at the long range 12z GFS, it doesn't show a single day with a high below 80*F here.

FWIW, as of today, the average high is 82*F.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

End off with this, this is teetering between sucking and finally getting something different on the EC View attachment 92183

Always gotta watch the tropics for home grown stuff too

 

[jackendrickwx]

End off with this, this is teetering between sucking and finally getting something different on the EC View attachment 92183

This compared to ~240 on the GFS is vaguely interesting with the usual caveat of “it’s hour 240”

 

[smast16]

That’s close to 30 degrees AN in Canada View attachment 92179View attachment 92180

At this rate, getting a trough on the east coast wont matter after we flood most of Eastern and Central Canada with 60 and 70 degree air.