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Pattern October Thread

NickyBGuarantee said:
The back and forth continues .. I highly doubt we see an airmass this cold but the fact that it’s being print out at 222 peaks my interest. This is the power of blocking in any case so we will watch.. makes you wonder what could be printed out in November .. also gives you thoughts on that early winter start that stratospheric warming could bring us..
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Personally I don't want an airmass that cold this early. I just want pleasant 70 degree temps for a solid month.
 
Friday night has some decent convection near Nashville tommorow night

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SD said:
You ain't lying especially with the gfs trying to go ++++++ tilt with the trough with less of a -nao and bounce it out so quickly.
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SD, I have a question. If that trough is a common occurrence this winter out west, will we have to have an intense -ao/nao to overpower it for us to get a cold stormy pattern here? Just wondering
 
SD said:
With the amplitude of the Canadian ridge we might actually tap some true polar/Arctic air and drive it southward. The omega block across the conus makes me nervous though and has the potential to be a spectacular model fail so that makes me nervous.
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Yep hence why I’m not holding my breath for anything spectacular but always fun to watch and see
 
BHS1975 said:
During the summer here yes low to mid 70s.

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I originally thought you were discussing fall low temps feeling like summer lows. Seems pretty much pointless to bring it up in this thread.
 
Mr. Golf said:
SD, I have a question. If that trough is a common occurrence this winter out west, will we have to have an intense -ao/nao to overpower it for us to get a cold stormy pattern here? Just wondering
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Yeah we would really have to have some type of block near Hudson Bay into the west based -NAO region
 
BHS1975 said:
The new normals still have the cooler decades skewing the numbers. Normals don't mean much when the climate is unstable.


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No even if I narrow it to a decade we still don’t have mid 70s lows . Also narrowing it to a decade would not be accurate . The WMO has the standard as 3 decades for a reason so your logic of colder decades skewing it is illogical . Personally I feel the WMO standard of 3 decades is too short and we should be using half century normals to account for ocean cycle variations and what not .
 
Webberweather53 said:
Weather here has been absolutely amazing this week. Had some wind Monday and Tuesday but yesterday today, tomorrow, and really the next week looks downright perfect. Highs in the 70s, lows in the 40s, & low humidity. I don’t miss sweating my butt off during Oct in NC.
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I am conflicted by this post, I wanna give you a like, or a middle finger emoji, not sure which......hopefully we will be similar here soon.....
 
GaStorm said:
I originally thought you were discussing fall low temps feeling like summer lows. Seems pretty much pointless to bring it up in this thread.
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I was. It still feels like early Sept out just like the last few years.


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