Pattern October Thread

[Fountainguy97]

Ah yes. There you are. Looks like models keep the fall weather around this time. The leaf season down here around 2,000 has really stalled out. Trees have been in this weird yellow/green state for two weeks. Hopefully this will finish the job and we get some good color locally.

 

[Rain Cold]

Nice west -NAO/western ridge couplet. Would be pretty cold during the longer wavelengths of winter.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Seems like a decent model consensus on a 5-8pm fropa for the triangle. I’ll always lean to the later side of guidance. 12k 06z has a 20F drop in 3 hours at RDU

 

[BHS1975]

Ah yes. There you are. Looks like models keep the fall weather around this time. The leaf season down here around 2,000 has really stalled out. Trees have been in this weird yellow/green state for two weeks. Hopefully this will finish the job and we get some good color locally.

View attachment 92646View attachment 92647

Thats what weeks on end of what used to be summer time lows will do (they are in the mid 70s these days).


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[SD]

Seems like a decent model consensus on a 5-8pm fropa for the triangle. I’ll always lean to the later side of guidance. 12k 06z has a 20F drop in 3 hours at RDU

Fairly mpressive line gets going on the 3k as well

 

[GaStorm]

Thats what weeks on end of what used to be summer time lows will do (they are in the mid 70s these days).


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Lows here have been anywhere from upper 50s to low 60s. Not sure who experienced mid 70s? ?

 

[Brick Tamland]

Temps are going to be like they saw a cop on 540.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Lows here have been anywhere from upper 50s to low 60s. Not sure who experienced mid 70s? ?

probably downtown Atlanta in the middle of the concrete jungle.

 

[LickWx]

Thats what weeks on end of what used to be summer time lows will do (they are in the mid 70s these days).


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Mid 70s? RDU average july low is barely over 70 on the new normals . Don’t you say RDU has crazy UHI? Lmao . This ain’t coastal south Florida dude , not even Florida’s interior has lows that high for the most part on average .

 

[cd2play]

Do you guys like to dance?

 

[cd2play]

probably downtown Atlanta in the middle of the concrete jungle.

Strength is dance fighting.

 

[cd2play]

probably downtown Atlanta in the middle of the concrete jungle.

Return the jewel and lift the cuss.

 

[SD]

Whoa

 

[Brick Tamland]

I used to be a pretty good breakdancer in the 80s.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

WhoaView attachment 92656

The back and forth continues .. I highly doubt we see an airmass this cold but the fact that it’s being print out at 222 peaks my interest. This is the power of blocking in any case so we will watch.. makes you wonder what could be printed out in November .. also gives you thoughts on that early winter start that stratospheric warming could bring us..

 

[cd2play]

I used to be a pretty good breakdancer in the 80s.

I never tried it. I still love the chicken dance.

 

[BHS1975]

Lows here have been anywhere from upper 50s to low 60s. Not sure who experienced mid 70s?

During the summer here yes low to mid 70s.

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[jackendrickwx]

Seems like a 10-15F drop is in order for more eastern areas that have a chance to heat up before the front. Ex 3km

 

[BHS1975]

Mid 70s? RDU average july low is barely over 70 on the new normals . Don’t you say RDU has crazy UHI? Lmao . This ain’t coastal south Florida dude , not even Florida’s interior has lows that high for the most part on average .

The new normals still have the cooler decades skewing the numbers. Normals don't mean much when the climate is unstable.


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[SD]

The back and forth continues .. I highly doubt we see an airmass this cold but the fact that it’s being print out at 222 peaks my interest. This is the power of blocking in any case so we will watch.. makes you wonder what could be printed out in November .. also gives you thoughts on that early winter start that stratospheric warming could bring us..

With the amplitude of the Canadian ridge we might actually tap some true polar/Arctic air and drive it southward. The omega block across the conus makes me nervous though and has the potential to be a spectacular model fail so that makes me nervous.